After four days without a GB voting intention poll (which suddenly seems like quite a long time!) we’re back into the normal cycle. Topline figures for the daily YouGov/Sun poll tonight are CON 36%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%.

UPDATE: The poll also asked about AV. Adjusted for likelihood to vote and excluding don’t knows and won’t votes, NO now has a 18 point lead, 59% to 41%. The change from YouGov’s previous AV poll is only minor, but it suggests the NO campaign are consolidating that big lead that opened up last week. Conservative voters remain overwhelmingly opposed to AV (by 82% to 18%), Lib Dem supporters remain overwhelmingly supportive (84% to 16%) and Labour voters remain split almost straight down the middle (49% pro, 51% anti).

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358 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 41, LDEM 10”

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  1. Fandango,

    A lot of their votes this time [2010] round were ‘slack’ ie they got no seats for them.. remember under CK they got 4 more seats with [off the top of my head] 900k less votes.

  2. Sure. I am just thinking vote share. Who knows re. seats.

  3. @ Thegreenbenches

    I’m really not sure what you want to say with this long list of arbitrary social attributes (Amber has showed it some weeks ago very clearly and elegantly) and Labour voting base. You can’t establish causality between the variables (you could put in eye colour, marital status, whatever without it. Dont’t forget average.temperature correlates with the number of pirates in the Atlantic), you include a methodological nonsense (for the implicit conclusion you would need to know if you are taking the same individuals in the sample, otherwise you are applying probability to non-independent events). You made the classic error of drawing your model from the data based on the wrong research design and data.created for a different purpose.

  4. I still think we are in a phoney war.

    The cuts are promised but not yet delivered and the relative starving of public sector employees – where over two years they lose 10% of income viz-a-viz inflation will ensure no growth in domestic demand and almost certain contraction in the UK economy. ( It is worthy of note that in only two years in my working life ( 1991 and 2009 ) did public sector pay actually outstrip that of the private sector despite the perception given of late) This strategy cannot balance the books – it will merely impoverish great swathes of the electorate with a corresponding decline in both living standards and economic activity. I can foresee a collapse and return to recession or at best stagnation in next two years and very little actual deficit reduction. The OBR is already looking like a busted flush as regards its capacity to predict economic growth (I think it is actuall worse to date and more ludicrously optimistic than previous Treasury models)

    Osborne’s “long game” is built upon a delusional belief in a fundamentally flawed strategy. No doubt by 2015 we will still be told that the stagflation of the previous five years is all GB’s fault and they need more time to clean Labour’s mess ( i remember Labour arguing that tory public sector cuts were still a problem well into 2000 so don’t be too surprised.)

    I believe that mid-term has yet to hit – and it will with a vengeance during 2012 – for both sides of the coaition. If Lib-dems hit double figures by 2015 I will be very surprised. I genuinely expect UKIP to overtake them in vote share by 2015. and all of their scottish seats to be lost – even Orkney and Shetland. Sadly, for I quite liked the LIb-dems and voted for them for four successive elections until last year, I think they are finished as a political force of any note for at least a generation (that’s three general elections)

    Tories may well recover and in a polarised 2015 election we could see both Lab and Tory gaining over 40% of the vote. I think the election will not be decided by economic recovery and “feel-good”” factor – with present policies there cannot be any – but by a personal battle between Cameron and Milliband. For some reason English people like Cameron (as a Scot he is as alien to us as Thatcher) and Ed M is an unproven force.

  5. Laszlo,

    I dont think so. Bob Worcester gave a lecture on the same data, and reached very similar conclusions. Attributing causality is of course the great challenge which is why I pre-fixed all of them with ‘mights’

    But it is indeed a fact that

    50% of CoE’s left
    48% of private renters left
    56% of those that left were women
    90% of the lost votes were C1/C2 voters

    When you cross tabulate, it becomes easier to reach firmer conclusions…

  6. Anthony,

    ICD polling [in partnership with New Statesman] have released an AV poll

  7. A far bigger faux pas by Cameron yesterday than the calm down thingy was his “you said there would be a double dip recession” to Ed M.

    Next two quarters are going to be “choppy” at best. If there IS a double dip, he is going to hear those words replayed, and his jibing tone will sound very foolish indeed.

  8. I think the general outline of the situation by The Last Fandango is very appropriate. I think most people would agree with the notion that if the deficit is reduced and the economy is seen to be performing well then it is likely that the Tories will take some benefit in 2015, possibly substantial benefit. Equally, Labour must have the ability to absorb a changing situation and react to any of several possible outcomes if they are to have a chance for power. I recall Eoin effectively arguing forcibly a short time ago that Labour were blowing their chances by not having a clear set of policies available now – this is not a view I agreed with as TLF’s assessment implies greater flexibility is required to account for future uncertainties.

    I have several thoughts on the interplay between general economic factors and the polls.

    1) I don’t think we will necessarily have a clear and definitive judgement as to the state of the economy for a considerable period of time. I’m certain there will be growth by 2015, but unless growth is consistently above trend (2.5 – 3% historically) it tends to feel sluggish and not very inspiring. Previous recessions have been followed by rapid growth spurts of 3 – 4% which we are highly unlikely to get and given the deficit and debt levels, the likely growth is going to leave a messy picture for voters to assess. For example, I’m personally pretty much certain that Osborne will miss his deficit reduction targets. I’m also fairly certain that voters won’t really care about this as such, except in so far as it affects their own pockets.

    2) Lib Dems are today’s whipping boys, but while I think a 2015 date with destiny will probably hurt them to a degree, I suspect they will bounce back in many areas. If the economic positives are better, this will be good news for them too. They will spend the next 4 years irritating Tory MPs and suggesting that they are keeping the government in line and that a Tory majority would be a bad thing. Eoin is right – Labour voters under FPTP will still vote Lib Dem in Tory/Lib Dem battlegrounds. Lib Dems will be significant and will make Cameron’s job harder in 2015.

    3) The deficit hangs over social issues, none more so than the NHS. Eoin’s observation that government spending is higher than expected isn’t a good thing – by increasing the projected deficit by £44b over 4 years they have less money to devote to tax cuts or feel good social spending. The NHS has only ever had a real terms budget rise of less than 1% in a single year in the last 60, and Osborne is hoping it can survive 5 years of 0.1% growth. With medical cost inflation running at anything from 4 – 6% this could potentially reinvogorate all the bad polling issues for the Tories on health and social services, even if the economy is improving.

    4) An NHS seen as declining and an economy seen as improving were precisely the factors that saw Labour romp home in 1997. While 2015 is too soon for a dramatic uplift in Labour’s fortunes, a better economic outlook is likely to offer the chance at least of a more sympathetic hearing for Labour calls to address social issues.

    5)Who says we’ll get to 2015? Most commentators and economists believe the next 3 – 9 months are looking very difficult, with a real chance of another GDP drop in Q2. There are enormous pressures from all sides on the coalition. Bad economic news will greatly add to this. I still feel in my bones that we’ll be analysing GE polls well before 2015, and I don’t have a clue what they will tell us.

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