There is a new Ipsos MORI poll in today’s Times that shows a commanding lead for the SNP. Topline figures, with changes from their previous Scottish poll, are:

Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-3), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), SNP 45%(+8)
Holyrood regional: CON 10%(-3), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-2), SNP 42%(+7), Green 6%(nc)

In The Times John Curtice projects that if repeated in the Scottish Parliamentary elections this would give the SNP 61 seats (up 14), Labour 45 (down 1), Conservatives 10 (down 7), Lib Dems 9 (down 7) and Scottish Greens 4 (up 2).

Clearly MORI are showing a bigger lead for the SNP than we’ve seen so far, but across the board recent polling is strong for the SNP. Recent polls from YouGov and Panelbase also showed the SNP ahead. The most recent poll from ICM continued to show Labour leading… but that’s over a month ago now, and at the time YouGov were also still showing Labour ahead. Public opinion seems to have shifted since then.

Full tabs are on the MORI website here


172 Responses to “MORI show the SNP 10 points ahead of Labour”

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  1. Bill Patrick

    Silly questions are well below your usual standard of debate.

  2. @crossbat

    Agree that it is frustrating (and mildly depressing) that the vitality currently exhibited on the labour centre left is being decried in -as you correctly put it- tabloid terms. Interesting as well that on here it’s by people who frequently pontificate over their commitment to inclusive debate- yet they seek to demean and close down a necessary intellectual renewal! Very strange.

  3. Socal Liberal

    You are of course right about the “Tartan Tories” and the image on Scottish Vote compass showing the relative position of the parties.

    You can see that incongruity as do most here including Labour members. Can it be that the SLAB leadrship doesn’t?

    If so, they are not capable of competent government.

    Another reason offered by their opponents is that they are not in charge of their own campaign which is externally run by others who are less well informed, and/or have different objectives. That isn’t helpful either if they are in government.

    Are there other credible explanations which are more to the credit of SLAB? I can’t see them myself. I wish I could.

    There is a valuable contribution to be made in the Scottish Parliament by the Socialists, Greens and Conservatives and Libeals in their own niche positions. The parliament is the poorer with out the Socialists as it would be without the Conservatives.

    It is not impossible for a centre party with a distinctive position to exist in competition with the SNP but SLAB’s USP seems to be negativity and Yah-Boo politics in the Westminster fashion, and there really isn’t a place for that in the Scottish Parliament as my previous post tried to convey.

    They make no valuable contribution and would hardly be missed if they were not there at all. Between the two of them, Annabel Goldie and Patrick Harvie by themselves do as good a job of holding the executive to account and presenting alternative views as the whole Labour group.

    There are cybernats on the Scotsman pages which play the same silly games and it is easy to overlook the possibility that there may be among them mutiple ID’s, provocateurs, and that some of the posters may not be old enough to vote.

  4. @John

    There are cybernats on the Scotsman pages which play the same silly games and it is easy to overlook the possibility that there may be among them mutiple ID’s, provocateurs, and that some of the posters may not be old enough to vote.


    LOL, I think you’re getting a bit paranoid. I have read the forums a lot and silly comments come from all quarters. What I have noticed and have reported is Labour MSP’s spamming the forums with huge amounts of data and posting vile attacks on ordinary posters.

    One of the more vile reporters for that rag (David Maddox) even wrote an article in his blog claiming that so called cybernats targeted his windows at his home with stones because of his criticism towards the SNP.
    LOL I mean as if!!

    The Scotsman has around 3% of the readership in Scotland, I doubt very much its forums or articles will have any influence on the outcome of the election.

  5. SoCalLi.beral

    I think you’ll like this

    It’s from a Nat on another blog speculating on the missing Murphy in the Scottish election.

    “Like it or not, The Murph, when he was Viceroy and threw the efforts of the Scotland Office wholly behind fighting the SNP, did and does manage to sound logical, reasoned and calm even if talking keich*.

    I once said that if he argued that we should barbeque every Panda on a fire of Whale Oil on Environmental Grounds, I would despite myself listen. He’s that effective a speaker.”

    *keich is a Scots word for excrement.

  6. To the people who say that the Scottish polls underestimate the support of the Conservatives, you’re wrong! Have a look at the 2007 ans 2003 SPICE reports which show the poll of polls for different times and just how right they got it!

  7. @ Old Nat

    “Like all good funnies, it’s based in truth.”

    How can you sue somebody for calling you a bad word? When I visit Scotland later this summer (which I’m totally excited for), I’m going to be sure to watch my language lest I get hauled into a Scottish court. So many in Europe claim to be so much more progressive than the U.S. yet so many European laws strike me as extremely right wing.

    @ John B Dick

    “For example, the constituency link was valued, but FPTP results in disproportionality. Minor and potential new parties are disadvantaged and radicals can be controlled by party management on threat of deselection even though they may have the overwhelming support of their constituents. Independents and regional issue campaigners are rarely elected.

    In a wholly FPTP system there is no safety net for a valued senior politician in a highly marginal constituency subjct to population shifts and boundary changes.

    Minor parties, by crosssing the threshhold that allows them to be elected, receive the public exposure and support staff funding that allows them to compete fairly and the dependence on powerful interest groups for funding is reduced.

    Another underrecognised aim was to give “a proper job” to backbench MSP’s.”

    I understand what you’re saying. But why not just require party primaries then? I mean, I care far more about the individual and individual performance in office than the rights of parties.

  8. @ John B Dick

    “You are of course right about the “Tartan Tories” and the image on Scottish Vote compass showing the relative position of the parties.

    You can see that incongruity as do most here including Labour members. Can it be that the SLAB leadrship doesn’t?

    If so, they are not capable of competent government.

    Another reason offered by their opponents is that they are not in charge of their own campaign which is externally run by others who are less well informed, and/or have different objectives. That isn’t helpful either if they are in government.

    Are there other credible explanations which are more to the credit of SLAB? I can’t see them myself. I wish I could.

    There is a valuable contribution to be made in the Scottish Parliament by the Socialists, Greens and Conservatives and Libeals in their own niche positions. The parliament is the poorer with out the Socialists as it would be without the Conservatives.

    It is not impossible for a centre party with a distinctive position to exist in competition with the SNP but SLAB’s USP seems to be negativity and Yah-Boo politics in the Westminster fashion, and there really isn’t a place for that in the Scottish Parliament as my previous post tried to convey.

    They make no valuable contribution and would hardly be missed if they were not there at all. Between the two of them, Annabel Goldie and Patrick Harvie by themselves do as good a job of holding the executive to account and presenting alternative views as the whole Labour group.

    There are cybernats on the Scotsman pages which play the same silly games and it is easy to overlook the possibility that there may be among them mutiple ID’s, provocateurs, and that some of the posters may not be old enough to vote.”

    Well I wouldn’t take random posters on the internet to be reflective of their party or even most of their party’s voters. That’s true even of Republicans.

    I think Labour simply needs to have a subsidiary wing of their own party for Scottish Labour. It would be separate and based in Holyrod but still within the larger Labour Party itself. They’d still be strongly unionist and left wing but they’d be able to make their own decisions on public policy, their political platform, their candidates, tactical decisions, etc. without outsiders butting in and telling them what to do.

    The Welsh and Scottish Parliaments provide Labour a great opportunity to show how it would govern in alternative to the Tories in Westminster and to come up with new experiments in governance.

  9. Oldnat,

    Shame. I think we can learn a lot from our Scandinavian siblings.

  10. @ Old Nat

    “I think you’ll like this

    It’s from a Nat on another blog speculating on the missing Murphy in the Scottish election.

    “Like it or not, The Murph, when he was Viceroy and threw the efforts of the Scotland Office wholly behind fighting the SNP, did and does manage to sound logical, reasoned and calm even if talking keich*.

    I once said that if he argued that we should barbeque every Panda on a fire of Whale Oil on Environmental Grounds, I would despite myself listen. He’s that effective a speaker.”

    *keich is a Scots word for excrement.”

    Well I’m glad that a Nat who doesn’t like him gave him some props. Your fellow Nat is more charitable than me. Usually I just tune out politicians I don’t like.

    As for JM, I think he’s got a lot of intelligent things to say. His writing can be a little disorganized (but he might just be a fellow ADHDer) but he’s not just eye candy for the party, he’s intelligent. To the best of my knowledge, he’s never proposed barbequing pandas to help the environment (that seems more like a David Cameron idea). I find it interesting that when JM was the Scottish Secretary, his harshest criticism came not from the Tories but from the SNP, especially Pete Wishart who always seems pissed off (those two could make a great buddy comedy movie).

    Has JM been missing in the election campaign? He might be busy with defense and foreign policy matters (learning them and criticizing the current government) and not have time for a heavy campaign schedule in Scotland.

    I tried to post on JM’s blog (which I don’t think anyone reads or posts on) but my comment got moderated. I didn’t understand why, I didn’t write anything suggestive or inappropriate. Though perhaps he (or probably his staffers who run his blog) thought I was being insulting when I compared him to Obama, Pelosi, Feinstein, and Joe Biden. Or maybe they read my name as “social liberal” and thought I was some sort of Lib Dem coming in to troll. Oh well.

  11. Socal Liberal

    Party primaries by themselves isn’t a solution which is going to increase choice of electable parties. Funding minor parties and giving “a proper job” to backbench MSP’s were also objectives and an integrated solution meant that they were all addressed.

    On his first day in office, Tony Blair must have made the most obvious decision of his premiership with little forethought or discussion when he appointed Donld Dewar to the Scottish Office. No doubt Donald mentioned John Smith’s “unfinished business” but there were many (in Wales too) who doubted if TB actually understood at that time what he was agreeing to other than that unfinished business presumaby needs to be finished someow.

    Certainly after 12 years of devolution we should be moving to stage 2. That is the application of the lesssons learned using the Scottish Parliament as a model for reform of the UK parliament – notably PR and the abolition of the HoL but a plethora of other things from petitions working hours as well. It is a comprehensive solution for the mid 20th Century’s problems. What a pity we had to wait over 40 years for to get half of it.

  12. @ John B Dick

    Btw, I think I own a tartan though it was made in Peru.

  13. Socal Liberal

    Sure Labour needs to Bavarianise. Tories too. We need devolution for political parties.

    Tavish Scott is learning that lesson the hard way. My bet is on the Tories to do it first. They are a bit nearer independent anyway. That would allow the SNP to give up their ban on coalition.

  14. Socal Liberal

    Tartan isn’t Scottish. A man who was buried 2000 years ago in China was wearing tartan trousers. The bagpipes as you know them were invented in London.

    Pasta is from China, not Italy.

    The Irish harp, emblem of the nation, was probably made in Scotland.

    Indigenous American people’s “traditional” breads were adopted from hunters (and now for practical reasons adopted by backpackers) were originally Scottish bannocks. Once these were the staple diet in Scotland, but seldom if ever sold commercially and are now forgotton.

  15. John Black, bannocks are forgotten? That’s odd. I had some in a friend’s home the last time I was in Scotland which was last year.

    The fact that a tartan weave was done in China doesn’t mean that it wasn’t used in other places. It has been found in Pictish digs as well. It was a weaving technique used in many locations around the world rather than “coming from” somewhere. It was practical when dyes had to be hand-made since it meant that the weaver did not have to have large amounts of yarn in one color, but could use smaller amounts of several colors.

    Social Liberal, how does one “owns a tartan” which is a pattern of weave? Does that mean no one else can weave that pattern? Possible one supposes. I’m not sure of the trademark and copyright laws in regard to cloth patterns.

    Sorry, I do have rather a “thing” about language and accuracy.

    On topic, has anyone heard whether ICM is doing a poll before the election? MORI does not have a great prediction record and while YouGov’s, the one with the best record does seem to be ICM.

  16. @ John B Dick

    “Party primaries by themselves isn’t a solution which is going to increase choice of electable parties.”

    Why is it that important to increase the choice of electable parties?

    Also…

    “Tartan isn’t Scottish. A man who was buried 2000 years ago in China was wearing tartan trousers. The bagpipes as you know them were invented in London.

    Pasta is from China, not Italy.

    The Irish harp, emblem of the nation, was probably made in Scotland.

    Indigenous American people’s “traditional” breads were adopted from hunters (and now for practical reasons adopted by backpackers) were originally Scottish bannocks. Once these were the staple diet in Scotland, but seldom if ever sold commercially and are now forgotton.”

    It’s not about who invents it but who popularizes it and adopts it as their own. The “French Dip” sandwich (now a staple of mid priced family restaurant chains across the U.S.) is from Los Angeles. As are the Cobb Salad and the fortune cookie. As is the chocolate covered frozen banana (well it’s from Newport Beach actually….those Republicans need something they can be proud of).

  17. @ JR Tomlin

    “Social Liberal, how does one “owns a tartan” which is a pattern of weave? Does that mean no one else can weave that pattern? Possible one supposes. I’m not sure of the trademark and copyright laws in regard to cloth patterns.”

    I thought a tartan was a type of wool blanket with a color pattern on it.

  18. JR Tomlin

    The hard oat biscuits called Oatcakes are sometimes called Bannocks outwith Scotland.

    The traditional bannock is a larger softer oat or barley meal based bread like a pizza base or pancake. It can be baked or pan fried. Usually the raising agent is baking powder.

    I put crumbled black pudding, chopped fried bacon or sliced fried mushrooms in mine. The advantage for backpackers is that you can put the measured quantity of dry ingredients in a sealed plastic bag and all you need is water, a campfire and pan. The dry ingredients will keep indefinately.

  19. The deep fried battered Mars Bar is definitely Scottish; I had one in Glasgow once but have never seen them done anywhere else in the UK.

    I’m sure I heard on the TV recently, that the Scottish Clan tartans were re-invented by Sir Walter Scott in 19th century, after they had all but died out. Is there any truth in this?

  20. Robert Newark

    Probably more accurate to say Scott “invented” rather than “re-invented”, clan tartans.

    In different parts of Scotland there were traditional patterns usd in weaving cloth, but they weren’t necessarily connected with a specific clan.

    Highland dress was proscribed after the 45 rebellion for a number of years.

    By the time of the visit of George IV to Edinburgh in 1822, clan chiefs had largely become “Lowlandised” or even Anglicised. Scott essentially had tartans designed for them to present a positive picture of Scotland as different from England, but still faithfully British.

    (The sale of tartans to tiourists has become very profitable!) :-)

  21. Stuart Dickson said “The fundamentals of Scottish civil society are shifting before our very eyes.”

    I would have to agree, when the SNP came to power 4 years ago, it was said that being in power was a rope with which to hang themselves, they rose to power on a protest vote against Labour’s War in Iraq and their dodgy deals in Libya.

    Everyone up to about 3 weeks ago expected the SNP to be beaten convincingly and normal service to be resumed in Scotland with Labour in charge.

    It appears from the poll that that is unlikely, I think several things have come together to galvanise support for the SNP.

    Regardless of whether people though Al-Megrahi’s release was right or wrong, they united behind the Scottish Government in saying NO to the attempt of US Senators to “Summon” Scots to an enquiry (Public Lynching).

    The Tories coming to power was a god send for Alex Salmond as Labour have stopped being the natural choice for those wishing to kick the Tories though undoubtably they do still benefit. The sight of Danny Alexander at George Osbornes heel as he announces cuts has sickened many Scots, not just those in the Highlands. Floating voters who would once have voted for the Lib Dems as the ” in between party” have flocked to the next closest, we saw an exaple of this in a council by-election in Wick.

    Lastly they have a good record in Government, lower waiting times for Cancer treatment, a freeze on Council Tax and free prescriptions are all very popular policies which have been successfully delivered even as a minority administration, the fact that all these things are going up in England probably makes it taste that little bit sweeter to many Scots.

    I do believe the SNP will be the largest Party after May 5th but I dont think they will have as many seats as the poll might indicate, the regional vote will probably work against any gains in constituencies, look at Central Scotland Region, Labour had 8 Constituency MSP’s and so didnt get a single List MSP.

  22. David Campbell

    I wholeheartedly agree with everything you say, but with regard to your last point in which regions can you see likely net regional change that comes anywhere near the predicted totals?

    You mention Central Scotland, and I have commented several times on Highland where I vote.

    In Mid Scotland in 2007 Labour lost three constituencies, but got 3 MSPs back on the list. The net effect was SNP +1; LibDem -1 LAB n/c.

    The early projections of big leads for Labour and now for SNP are simply incredible and worthless. The polls tell us that the SNP have improved their position but not by how much nor can we say which will be the largest party.

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