There is a new ComRes poll out for the Indy on Sunday. Topline voting intention figures, with changes from ComRes’s previous online poll a month ago, are CON 35%(-2), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 10%(-1), Others 15%(+3). A four point Labour lead is pretty typical of ComRes’ online polls, which seem to be slightly more favourable to the Tories than their parallel phone polls for the Independent.

The poll also asked ComRes’s regular tracker on AV voting intention, and found the NO campaign ahead by six points. Topline figures (weighted by likelihood to vote – though it’s unclear whether ComRes asked specifically about likelihood to vote in the referendum) with changes from last month are YES 37%(+3), NO 43% (+6), Don’t know 21%(-7).

As people make their minds up, the NO campaign seem to be consolidating a small lead. The last YouGov poll to ask the bare referendum question also found a NO lead for the first time. Populus found NO moving ahead, though did not ask the specific referendum wording. In contrast Angus Reid continue to show YES ahead.

ComRes asked various other questions (all as agree/disagree statements. ComRes/Indy/Indy on Sunday polls have a tendency to ask almost every question, no matter the subject or what they want to know, as an agree or disagree statement. It’s beyond me why). The most interesting ones were some asking about the coalition a year on – people are split almost down the middle about whether the Conservatives would have been better off going it alone than forming a coalition with the Lib Dems, and only marginally more likely to think that the Con & LD coalition has worked out better than a Lab & LD coalition would have (though I expect the answers to that question will be wholly and predictably partisan).

41% of people agreed with the statement that the Liberal Democrats should pull of the coalition if they don’t get the changes they want to the NHS policy… though I expect a large chunk of those responses will be from people who think the Lib Dems should pull out of the coalition anyway. YouGov asked a similar “should the Lib Dems leave the coalition if…” question about the AV referendum back in March, but with more nuanced answer options. 11% of people though the Lib Dems should leave the coalition if the AV referendum was defeated… but 27% thought they should leave it anyway.

Finally, ComRes found 41% of people supported the military action in Libya, with 38% opposed. When they previously asked back in March they found 35% in support but 43% opposed. Regular readers will recall some debate here over why when the conflict in Libya first broke out ComRes were showing people opposed, while YouGov were showing people supportive. I put forward two obvious possible causes – YouGov presented it as a joint action between the USA, France and the UK, while ComRes only mentioned the UK. The other difference was that YouGov asked the question by itself, while ComRes asked it as part of a rotated set of statements including ones about British soldiers risking death and injury – this time round ComRes didn’t ask the other statements about Libya, so I suspect the change may be due to question order effects rather than an increase in support for Libyan intervention.

Still to come tonight we have the regular YouGov voting intention figures for the Sunday Times at 10pm, and a YouGov poll for the Scotsman on Sunday (no time for that – presumably whenever the SoS release them).

26 Responses to “ComRes show NO campaign 6 points ahead”

  1. I hope you are feeling well now, Anthony.

  2. On the mend now

  3. I’m glad about that. :-)

    Things have been rather dull without your in-depth analysis to liven them up.

  4. @AW

    Good to see you back.

    Are the Comres changes on the AV referendum correct – Yes up 3 and No down six? Seems a bit odd.

  5. Sorry – misread the results. Yes up 3, No up 6.

  6. Glad you are on the mend Anthony.

  7. Expect an Ipsos-Mori Scotland poll not tomorrow but next 2-3days.. they are currently doing fieldwork.

    they have a VI [great Britain] due on 21/04

  8. The SoS/YG figures due out at midnigh, apparently. I wont be up for them, so try not to get too over-excited, nationalists!

  9. Is there anyone interested in tomorrow’s Finnish GE? It seems to have a particular significance, since lately the main topic was the various parties’ position on Portuguese bailout. Latest polls show a very close three-horse race between the two major incumbent coalition partners, the National Alliance and the Center Party, and the Social Democrats, whereas the True Finns, the surprise of the electoral campaign, are in fourth place, after having risen even to second place. Will they influence the formation of the new government? Or will the outgoing coalition will also be the new one, with a possible change of PM (National’s Kataynen instead of Center’s Kiviniemi?)

  10. I won’t be either, so you’ll have to discuss them without me unless the turn up early (I’m not even sure what the exact figures are, so I can’t even write it up in advance!)

  11. Recognising Anthony’s informed opinion on the improved support re Libya, one might wonder whether the continuing attacks on Misratah, and the more detailed tv coverage of the plight of it’s residents might not be having an effect.

    This report from Sky is an example

    “An international aid group evacuated nearly 1,200 migrant workers from Misratah by boat, saying nearly all were weak, suffering from dehydration and needing medical attention.

    The migrants were among 8,300 foreign labourers stranded near Misratah’s port without shelter or adequate food and water, and the boat will quickly make a second run to rescue more, said the International Organisation for Migration.”

    THe NGO Human Rights Watch has today made an accusation of use of cluster bombs against civilians in Misratah.

    I feel that reports like this must have an effect on opinion in UK.

  12. John Ruddy – Do you have an inkling what the poll shows?

  13. @Aidy
    Not really. Kenny Farquarson has been teasing people on twitter, which the cybernats have taken to mean that the poll is bad for them. I take it to mean he’s just trying to big them up a bit, and that they’ll show things to be very close as before.

    Expect if poll is good for nats, they will shout to the rooftops that it shows they have momentum, and if it is bad for them that the methodology is flawed, weighting is wrong, etc.

    Me? Its just a poll, and only shows a snapshot – whatever the methodology!

  14. John – cheers. There do not seem to be many Scottish polls despite the election which is why when there is one I look out for them.

  15. @John Ruddy

    I came across this comment.

    from The Times

    [email protected] SoS poll good for Nats, I hear.

    Must be good news for the SNP as Nicola Sturgeon has re-tweeted that; so she know the results. Can’t stay up ’till midnight as too tired.

  16. Poll results on previous thread

  17. The new Scottish elections poll results are announced here :

  18. Regarding the AV referendum, I wonder whether voting turnout will be very much influenced by whether or not one wants change. I can’t help thinking that come polling day, those who are strongly in favour of change may be much more likely to vote. When I say “in favour of change”, I mean that and not necessarily “in favour of change to AV”. Many people have said that they favour changing the voting system but oppose AV and I think they may be as likely to vote as those who are pro-AV.

    I am a Tory who is in favour of AV. I actually like AV in itself. I believe that it would keep out extremists, contrary to my own party’s official view that it could let the BNP in. I think that the party leadership is wrong on this because I think that most British people would vote for any moderate party to keep out extremists (not just the BNP). I know that in a seat where I could see an extremist winning under FPTP, I would give the Labour candidate one of my lower preferences, whereas in a seat that I see as safe from extremists I would not rank the Labour candidate. The thing with AV is that you can effectively vote for a candidate and against others. By ranking most candidates and not marking a preference for ones one really dislikes, one increases the chances of those candidates being eliminated. By ranking only a first preference, one can slightly increase that candidate’s chance of election, provided he or she makes it to the deciding round. I like AV because it enables voters to vote strongly for a candidate (first preference only), strongly against a candidate (show preferences for all others, leaving out the one disliked) or show only mild preference for one candidate (rank all candidates or rank just a few out of many).

    My own gut feeling is that differential turnout will make the polls appear to understate support for AV. I also think that both sides could still win, particularly if one or other strongly improves on the first dire referendum broadcasts and generally improves the level of the campaign.

  19. @ OLDNAT

    Thanks for that, great results for the SNP!!

  20. Yougov
    Conservative 37%, Labour 41%, Lib Dem 9%. Gov approval -24%

  21. John Ruddy

    What if it appears good for the Nats because the methodology has changed but the VI hasn’t or is even worse for them?

    The previous poll was suspect for the numbers of changes was incredible. The total number now is fewer, but since it goes the other way that’s a big change from one poll to the other and I’d like to see an explanation before I believe this projection either.

    I don’t think MoE will do.

    Surely not just the Subway? Balls and Milliband have made their contribution in the mistaken belief that they are helping the local team. The SNP could have written their script for them.

    John Curtice’s projecions are at the most optimiststic end of speculation for the Greens and the pessimistic end of what is possible for the Cons, but I just can’t see where all those uncompensated SNP and Labour gains are coming from.

  22. “I think that the party leadership is wrong on this because I think that most British people would vote for any moderate party to keep out extremists (not just the BNP).”

    I’m quite sure they know they’re wrong. AV will favour minority parties with broad support (e.g. the Greens) but not extremist parties with narrow support such as the BNP.

  23. Moraylooninbrussels

    Do you anticipate an SNP surge in Moray?

  24. Anthony

    It’s time to lecture these Nationalists on thedangers of believing one poll.

  25. John B Dick

    I’m sure Anthony’s eventual thread on this poll will remind us of the importance of trends in polling.

    Though with unreliable panel selection, it’s difficult to be sure of any trends in YouGov’s Scottish polls.