ITV Wales have published the latest YouGov Welsh voting intention figures. Topline voting intention figures with changes from the last poll at the end of March are:

Welsh constituency: CON 20%(-1), LAB 49%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), PC 17%(nc)
Welsh regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 44%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), PC 18%(+2)

Clearly there’s no massive change since a fortnight ago. ITV Wales’s seat projections based on these figures are Labour 31, Conservative 13, Plaid Cymru 11, Lib Dems 5 – so still a very narrow overall majority for Labour.


148 Responses to “Latest YouGov Welsh figures”

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  1. @Geraint

    I really can’t see a rainbow colaition because it should be relatively easy for Labour to get 30 seats in Wales with this kind of support. A 31st seat might be more difficult than it looks but it’s very likely on these figures.

    I accept it’s harder than it looks for Labour to gain Clywd West for example.

  2. Kenny Farquarson has been teasing on twitter about the SoS/YG poll. I think details will eb about after midnight, presumably to stop other print media commenting on the results?

  3. But Labour is definitely odds on for 31 seats in wales. I just can’t predict the exact path of gains.

  4. A few others have been twittering about the SoS poll as well John, i.e. the Times and Guardian editors.

    On a different note, I know this question has been asked before, but how do I change the background of my posts? Sorry for the stupid question…..

  5. A BROWN
    But Labour is definitely odds on for 31 seats in wales. I just can’t predict the exact path of gains.

    Will they be putting forward a candidate for PO irrespective of how many seats they end up with? Labour seemingly will have little choice but to do so in Holyrood.

  6. ‘Barney

    Extrapolating from a statement by one person (or even a few) to all SNP posters just makes you look silly.

    It was you Unionists that condemned Scotland to life under Thatcher, and then to life under Blair, and now to life under Cameron/Clegg.

    That you prefer that situation to a Social Democratic Scotland makes a mockery of your pretence that you are going to see off the Tories in London by having Iain Grey as FM.’

    Hang on a minute oldnat but you would have had to be voting on English matters to provide a sustainable gvt. That seems a tad hypocritical.

    Obviously a minority hamstrung Tory gvt would have been most democratic.

  7. BORUSSIA1909
    A few others have been twittering about the SoS poll as well John, i.e. the Times and Guardian editors.
    On a different note, I know this question has been asked before, but how do I change the background of my posts? Sorry for the stupid question…

    1. Register, if you haven’t already
    2. Login
    3. Click on Profile then Your Extended Profile
    4. Select political party supported of choice

  8. Iceman @ Alan Christie

    AC can speak for himself, and some Nationalists are economic liberals but Scottish Vote Compass shows the SNP to be sligtly further to the left than Labour and as far from Labour as Labour is from the authoritarian Tories.

    The SNP prefer to be in Government with the CONS in UK because they can do deals with the UK government. Cons can ignore the Scottish part of the party. They do nothing for them at Westminster.

    Labour want to control SLAB. At other times the SNP can square up to the Con-LibDems. They have a good opinion of themselves as light-footed flexible combatants, smarter and better informed than the Tories.

    They don’t need to be right about that to prefer Cons in No 10, they just need to believe it. Maybe they’re right, but will they get the chance to show it?

  9. A Brown

    Life gets complex when the Unionists insist on the UK Parliament doubling up as the English one.

    Stupid constitution – stupid result.

    However, the point was about Labour’s “UK focussed” election strategy in Scotland.

    We’ll find out in a few hours whether it is resonating with the voters.

  10. ‘Life gets complex when the Unionists insist on the UK Parliament doubling up as the English one.’

    Never said it should. Of course England should either have it’s own parliament or devolved regional gvt.

  11. A Brown

    I wasn’t blaming you for the incompetence of those who designed asymmetric devolution! :-)

  12. http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/news/Alex-Salmond-in-poll-position.6753106.jp

    Constituency SNP 40 : Lab 37 : Con 11 : LD 8

    List SNP 35 : Lab 33 : Con 12 : LD 7 : Grn 6

    Projection by Curtice

    SNP 55 : Lab 49 : Con 14 : LD 6 : Green 5

  13. Oldnat @ A Brown

    Where did you get the idea that anything about Westminster has ever been “designed”?

    Everything is a modification of something that worked after a fashion in the past in different circumstances and has been tweaked here and there to keep it going.

  14. John B Dick

    True! :-)

  15. “the number of people who would choose him as First Minister over Gray increasing from 48 per cent to 52 per cent over the last fortnight. The number who back Gray has fallen from 33 per cent to 27 per cent.”

  16. Two polls now showing the SNP in the lead. Looking good.

  17. OLDNAT

    Lucky you seeing the article.

    They seem to have re-embargoed it, leaving just the comments!

  18. BZ

    The full article has been copied and pasted on that site known as “elsewhere” to us BwB ers!

  19. Interesting, as the SNP were bleating about how YouGov were askign Westminster voting intention before Holyrood – claiming the methodology is flawed.

    You cant have it both ways!

  20. I still have a problem with YouGov’s Scottish polls because they took party identity just after the UK election.

    That means, when selecting their panel, they have no way of knowing whether their Labour sample has an over representation of Labour loyalists or disloyalists (to use their own labelling for the UK election).

    That would suggest that YouGov may be committing the worst sin possible – being “unreliable”.

    Did this poll have the right proportion of Labour loyalists/disloyalists? or too many loyalists? or too many disloyalists?

    We’ll never know – and neither will YouGov.

  21. John Ruddy

    You’ll now have seen what I was typing as you were posting.

    You were saying?

  22. OldNat,
    Since I am not conversant in the secret nationalist code, I dont know what you are talking about!

    I’ll wait until the story is published on their website, or even buy a copy of the paper!

    I wonder if it was a secret ruse to get egg on the faces on some of the natioanlists who post regularly on the scotsman/Scotland on Sunday website! The real results might be different! Who knows?

  23. Well they’ve deleted all the comments on the SoS site so doubt it was a ruse….

  24. OLDNAT

    I agree entirely with your suspicion of Party ID, which of course means that both this poll and the last YouGov Scottish poll could over-represent disloyalists. Of course, either or both could equally over-represent loyalists.

    I’m still also suspicious of the newspaper readership weightings, especially with the Record and “Scottish” Sun taken diametrically opposed positions.

    What’s significantly different between the two is that the new one shows SNP ahead on both plurality and list seats, the first to do so this election, I think.

  25. John Ruddy

    You said “Interesting, as the SNP were bleating about how YouGov were askign Westminster voting intention before Holyrood – claiming the methodology is flawed.”

    Meanwhile I was saying that I had doubts about YouGov’s methodology.

    Barbazenzero agrees.

    Not surprising that you try to impugn others – but to do that immediately before posts which prove you wholly, utterly, and totally wrong displays a certain lack of judgement.

  26. Alex Salmond in poll position as SNP surge
    Salmond has reason to smile.

    Published Date: 17 April 2011

    By Eddie Barnes

    Political Editor

    ALEX Salmond is on course for a second term in office with an exclusive poll today revealing that the SNP is stretching ahead of Labour in the 2011 election race.

    The YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday shows that the Nationalists have surged ahead of their main opponents in the first stage of the campaign and currently stand to win a six-seat victory over Labour on 5 May.

    Such a result would offer the SNP leader the chance to form a second minority government at Holyrood for the next five years, with his party either able to turn to the Conservatives for backing, or seek a deal with a combination of the Tories, the LibDems and the Greens.

    For Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray, however, the poll reveals an alarming slump in his party’s fortunes since YouGov polled voters just two weeks ago with Labour leaking support on both the constituency and list vote.

    On the crucial regional list vote, the poll reveals a striking change of fortunes, with Labour plunging by six points and the SNP gaining three points. It means the SNP has turned a seven-point deficit behind Labour at the end of March into a two-point lead.

    SNP campaign chiefs claimed last night the shift was a response to their decision to cast the regional vote as a vote to elect Salmond as First Minister.

    The poll also shows that Gray is also falling further behind Salmond as voters’ preferred First Minister, with double the number of respondents – 57 per cent – choosing Salmond over his main rival.

    Compared to the YouGov poll on 25-28 March, the SNP’s constituency vote stays the same at 40 per cent, Labour drop two to 37 per cent, the Tories hold steady on 11 per cent, while the Lib Dems pick up three points to 8 per cent. On the regional list, the SNP climb three points to 35 per cent, while Labour fall by six points to 33 per cent, The Tories stay on 12 per cent, the LibDems gain 2 points to 7 per cent, while the Greens are on 6 per cent.

    That shift in fortunes has pushed the SNP into a clear lead over Labour in terms of seats. According to an analysis by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, the poll would give the SNP 55 seats, Labour 49, the Conservatives 14, the LibDems 6 and the Greens 5.

    The poll was conducted at the end of last week in the wake of the SNP’s manifesto launch and Salmond’s appearance on Question Time. Labour must therefore hope that the extensive coverage given to its opponents has exaggerated the SNP’s support.

    Furthermore, on YouGov’s raw figures, unadjusted for likelihood to vote, the two parties remain neck and neck, suggesting that Labour could still catch the SNP if it can persuade stay-at-home voters to turn out.

    Overall, however, the poll is a huge boost for the SNP, confirming predictions from party chiefs in recent days that it was picking up support as the campaign enters its final three weeks.

    Salmond’s appeal among voters is also strengthening, according to the poll, with the number of people who would choose him as First Minister over Gray increasing from 48 per cent to 52 per cent over the last fortnight. The number who back Gray has fallen from 33 per cent to 27 per cent.

    However, Labour managers insist that canvass returns from key constituencies showed them on track to make gains against the SNP.

    Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour deputy leader, said: “The SNP are taking voters for granted by declaring the result of the election before a single vote has been cast, but now the Tories are back (in Westminster], Labour will fight up until the wire for what really matters – jobs, fairness, getting Scots back to work. This poll shows there is all to fight for and the result is too close to call.”

    SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said the decision to cast the regional list vote as a vote for “Alex Salmond for First Minister” was bearing fruit. He said: “The SNP’s message of ‘Alex Salmond for First Minister’ is giving our campaign a major boost in every part of Scotland,” he said.

  27. My point is that you can hardly claim a poll has flawed methodology and then claim its results as supporting your party.

    Its either one thing or the other. It cant be flawed and right – can it?

  28. JOHN RUDDY
    My point is that you can hardly claim a poll has flawed methodology and then claim its results as supporting your party.
    Its either one thing or the other. It cant be flawed and right – can it?

    Were it consistently flawed, it might at least show trends correctly, if not their magnitude.

  29. John Ruddy

    “My point is that you can hardly claim a poll has flawed methodology and then claim its results as supporting your party. ”

    Actually, it can. My point is that there is no way you can know if it is flawed, and if it is, in which direction.

    However, your original point was that “the SNP were bleating about how YouGov were askign Westminster voting intention before Holyrood – claiming the methodology is flawed.

    You cant have it both ways!”

    I’m afraid that the only person trying to look in both irections at once is your good self.

    The criticisms of YouGov’s methodology have been largely made by BZ and myself. Those were methodological criticisms and not “bleating”.

    We (if I can speak for BZ as well) stick to our guns.

    1. the doubts over panel selection mean that this poll might be accurate, too optimistic for SNP, or too optimistic for Labour. It’s impossible to know.

    2. Asking the Westminster question first is simply bad practice. If it has an effect, then it will be to influence respondents in favour of their UK stance, and that will benefit Labour. On that basis this poll could be worse for Labour than appears.

  30. Why has the poll been taken down?

  31. I wasnt speaking about your criticism of the poll methodology – I was talking about the SNP press release about the You Gov poll from earlier in the campaign which showed a large Labour lead. They cast aspersions on the methodology.

    In what way am I looking in two directions?

  32. John Ruddy

    The criticisms by the SNP of that poll were wholly justified. After considerable debate on this site about it, Anthony investigated and discovered that there had been errors in the panel selection.

    To use the technical term the poll was “crap” (I’ll invent an acronym if you want :-) )

  33. Aidy

    Why has the poll been taken down?

    If you mean the SoS report, I’ve no idea – but if they try changing it, now that the original text is in the blogosphere they may have a few problems!

  34. oldnat – cheers. what would cause it to be taken down?

  35. Aidy

    John Park’s embarrassment?

  36. old nat – who is John Park (forgive my ignorance!)

  37. AIDY
    oldnat – cheers. what would cause it to be taken down?

    The Hootsmon usually put their “news” up pretty early, and their Sunday sister, SoS, often follow suit.

    Tonight, though, they seem to have put the whole paper up before 22:00, which is exceptionally early for them, but have now pulled the entire issue from their website. It will likely be back around midnight BST.

    It may even have been another article that they didn’t want their competitors to see while the presses were still open.

    OLDNAT
    No objections at all – we’re on the same wavelength on this.

  38. Aidy,
    John Park is the campaign manager for Scottish Labour, and a candidate on the Mid Scotland & Fife list.

    It was probably posted up in error, as these stories normally go up much later so that other newspapers dont get a chance to print a story about a poll they didnt pay for. Scotland on Sunday wants to put an exclusive tag on it.

  39. @ David B

    “Interested in learning about your meeting with Hilary Clinton. Got me thinking aout how I was influenced by meeting various politicians when I was a student and it might tell us,more genrally, that even in the internet age personal experience of politicians is important in foming individual political opinion.

    In the mid 60s I was a progressive Tory at a redbrick university and Chair of the university Conservative Association. As a result I met the then leader of the Tories (Ted Heath) who was stand-offish, quite rude and basically a complete turn-off, then Enoch Powell (polite, remote not particularly friendly) and worst of all. Peter Griffiths, the notoriously racist MP for Smethwick between 1964 and 1966.

    Not surprisingly my political views underwent radcal change after meeting this lot and i have been active in the Labour Party ever since. Just as influential in my change of tack was an afternoon spent with Ian Mikardo (a senior Labour MP of the time) who I found a very interesting and engaging person. What a young Tory who was an officer of ther Conservative association was doing with an important Labour MP is an interesting story which i am just about prepared to reveal if anyone is interested!”

    Yeah, share your story if you would like. My feeling is, I don’t let personality of politicians drive my ideology but I will let it drive my support and my vote in primaries. To use Hillary as an example, I was going to vote for her when I met her. That wasn’t in question. But my vote for her as well as my initial volunteering for her was a reaction against Barack Obama. I was voting for Hillary because she was the alternative to Obama. But after I met her, my vote became a pro Hillary vote. I realized I wanted to do whatever I could to get her elected president.

    As for your experience, I think that one’s politics tend to change in college (if they change) because you become more aware of real world events and you suddenly start to get exposure to other groups of people. Of course, doesn’t always happen that way. My politics didn’t really change in college but my political views expanded and became broader. I think if anything, I became more circumspect.

  40. John Ruddy

    Your explanation is probably the right one.

  41. cheers John. think the poll shows that it is all still to play for.

  42. The poll is a snapshot – it shows that with some good publicity with the manifesto launch and an appearance of Alex Salmond on question time, there are some favourable poll ratings for the SNP.

    It proves that, as with most elections, its really the Governments election to lose.

  43. @ Old Nat

    That poll is definitely good news for your side. I’m kinda surprised by Labour’s collapse since they held such a large lead at the start of the campaign. Shows you my political knowledge or lack thereof. :)

  44. SoCalLiberal

    I’ve argued for a long time that the Scottish election would be decided on the prism through which Scots looked at the election.

    In UK terms, Scotland votes massively Labour (or more accurately, the party that seems to have a chance of keeping the Tories out at Westminster).

    The early polls were taken when Scots were still looking at all politics through a UK prism. Labour have tried to keep that mindset.

    It isn’t a “Labour collapse”. If the UK had a General Election soon, the Scots would probably vote the same way as last time.

    All that has happened is that Scots have started focussing on politics through a Scottish prism. That’s the mindset the SNP wanted to create.

    I don’t imagine it’s that different from Americans voting differently in State and Federal elections.

  45. The SoS site has just added comments from the other parties, not originally quoted

    “Tory campaign chief David McLetchie said: “We know from the doorsteps of Scotland that people are warming to (party leader] Annabel Goldie’s message of common sense and telling it like it is.”

    On a possible deal with the SNP, he added: “Once the votes are counted, our sole test will be to do what is in the best interests of Scotland. As we have repeatedly said, we rule nothing in and we rule nothing out.”

    A Lib Dem spokesperson said: “Pollsters predicted we wouldn’t win the Dunfermline by-election, we wouldn’t get an MEP and we’d lose half our MPs. They got it wrong every time. The only poll that counts is 5 May and Liberal Democrats are focused on campaigning on real issues that matter to Scotland – growing the economy, keeping services local and restoring excellence to education.”

    A spokesman for the Greens added: “If this poll is right, there’ll be a real boost to Green MSPs on 5 May, and a strong set of voices at Holyrood to oppose these cuts to public services.”

  46. The poll is just back on SoS
    http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/news/Alex-Salmond-in-poll-position.6753202.jp

    Time to move to the new thread

  47. @Oldnat

    As far as I know, Labour hasn’t tried to encourage their supporters to vote tactically – largely I suspect because they are so dominant in Wales that they have no real need to. Their worst result (2007) was only 4 seats short of a majority; they could (theoretically) have formed a coalition with any of the other parties. The Conservatives do reasonably well in Wales, but never well enough to challenge to govern except in a coalition; from a Lab-perspective any vote on the list is against them. This is slightly frustrating from a Plaid perspective – most Labour voters vastly prefer Plaid to the Conservatives; if Plaid picked up a decent chunk of Labour’s wasted support on the lists they could pretty guarantee 2 of the four seats in every South Wales region.

    That said, there’s a slight possibility that this time round Lab support will be so high that they might even win list seats, e.g. in South Wales East. In the eastern, less Welsh-speaking parts of the valleys, the Lib Dems seem to come closest to Lab; while in the western valleys Plaid Cymru are their closest rivals. As the biggest swing seems to be LD > Lab, plus the presence of Monmouth as a reasonably safe Conservative constituency, SWE may see a Labour list member this election.

  48. My spreadsheet gives me Lab 32, Plaid 10, Tories 12, LD 5, other 1 if I use uniform percentage points swing and Lab 35 Plaid 9, Tories 12 and LD 4 if I use uniform relative swing.

    In uniform percentage points swing, I added/deducted the same perctange point difference between the poll and the last election results in all constituencies and regions (e.g. Labour had 32.2% in the constituencies, given a poll of 49% I added 16.8 percentage points to each Labour constituency result – note for the LD this meant their score in some constituencies was negative).

    In uniform relative swing, I added/deducted the same perctange difference between the poll and the last election results in all constituencies and regions (e.g. Labour had 32.2% in the constituencies, given a poll of 49% I multiplied each Labour constituency result by (49/32.2=)1.5217) and then increased/reduced each party by the same proportion to get a constituency/region total of 100% (this is strictly speaking not necessary to work out who get the seat(s)).

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