Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. More interesting is the Alternative Vote tracker – on the bare referendum question, weighted by likelihood to vote, YouGov are now showing a lead for the NO campaign. Yes are on 37%, No are on 44%. This is the first time that YouGov’s bare referendum question has shown the No campaign ahead.

I will add my normal caveat about sharp changes in polling – until it is supported by other polls it could always turn out to be an outlier – but the trend appears towards the NO campaign, and this poll follows the Populus poll earlier this month that also showed No ahead in a poll without explanation of the systems (albeit, in a poll using the wrong referendum wording!), and the most recent ComRes AV poll last month which also showed NO moving ahead. Of recent polls, only Angus Reid continues to show a YES lead, though all companies show YES and NO relatively close.

YouGov also reasked the prompted version of the question they’ve asked since last Summer (to different samples, obviously) and found Yes on 33%, No on 45%. As with the Populus version of the questions, the large gap between prompted and unprompted qestions seems to be fading – presumably because respondents to the question are now more likely to have their own understanding of what FPTP and AV consist of.


205 Responses to “YouGov show NO campaign seven points ahead”

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  1. @Robert C

    “presumably Manc hester was hosed down with money from the Labour Govt”

    What evidence do you have for this?
    Do people speaking English with a Northen accent make you feel uneasy?

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  2. “Cameron is wrong… research funded by the Economic and Social Research Council found that deprivation, not multiculturalism, was the root cause of fragmented communities. ”

    Er, actually it’s obviously both whatever the waffly professor says.

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  3. The Green Benches @ Raf,

    “Agreed…

    I recommend people take the Scottish questionnaire link up above.. its very interesting…”

    I’ve done it too. So that’s our AV choices sorted then.

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  4. The Green Benches

    “We need a Labour party member to take it and get reds to come out on top other wise this is looking daft?”

    No, it isn’t looking daft, I’m impressed. What’s looking daft is the NewLabur SLAB leadership’s distance from its Socialist members.

    The SNP is where the non-tribal middle class element of the Labour party was a generation ago, and many SLAB members havn’t changed.

    That, and the fact that many SNP activists are ex-Labour activists, is the reason for the antipathy of SLAB elected representatives to their opponents and their unhelpful negativity.

    Most voters of both parties take an AV approach. The exceptions are that the Greens are the second choice of some of the more left/CND Labourites, and in rural areas where Labour’s identity as a party rooted in industrial employment seems irrelevant, the LibDems are the alternative to the SNP.

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  5. I am pleased to see the No campaign ahead this is a referendum that no one wants: the LD want one on PR the CON, BNP, UKIP and LAB don’t want one at all. The public want a referendum but not on electoral reform but on our future relationship with the EU. That would scare the politicos to death!

    So you can imagine that most of us are pretty cross that the first referendum grannted to us in 36 years is on an issue that no one wants is a complete waste of money and is a result of sordid political compromise.

    Chris Lenton

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