Tonight’s YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. More interesting is the Alternative Vote tracker – on the bare referendum question, weighted by likelihood to vote, YouGov are now showing a lead for the NO campaign. Yes are on 37%, No are on 44%. This is the first time that YouGov’s bare referendum question has shown the No campaign ahead.
I will add my normal caveat about sharp changes in polling – until it is supported by other polls it could always turn out to be an outlier – but the trend appears towards the NO campaign, and this poll follows the Populus poll earlier this month that also showed No ahead in a poll without explanation of the systems (albeit, in a poll using the wrong referendum wording!), and the most recent ComRes AV poll last month which also showed NO moving ahead. Of recent polls, only Angus Reid continues to show a YES lead, though all companies show YES and NO relatively close.
YouGov also reasked the prompted version of the question they’ve asked since last Summer (to different samples, obviously) and found Yes on 33%, No on 45%. As with the Populus version of the questions, the large gap between prompted and unprompted qestions seems to be fading – presumably because respondents to the question are now more likely to have their own understanding of what FPTP and AV consist of.