There is a new Angus Reid voting intention poll out, topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, Others 16%. This is the lowest figure any company has shown for the Conservatives since the height of Cleggmania last year, but Angus Reid have been showing consistently lower levels of support for the Conservatives than other pollsters anyway. So far the only other companies to put the Conservatives below 35% are a single Opinium poll showing them at 34% at the end of March, and a couple of YouGov’s daily polls in early March when they briefly dropped to 33/34% before recovering.
The difference would appear to be connected to a higher score for “other” parties – this is something we also saw during the last Parliament, when newer online companies like Angus Reid, Opinium and Harris tended to show significantly higher levels of support for “other” parties. Harris aren’t conducting regular polls at the moment, but we are certainly seeing the same pattern reappearing with Angus Reid and Opinium (though it seem to have different knock on effects – Angus Reid are showing higher “others” and lower Conservatives. Opinium are showing higher “others” and lower Labour.) I’ve never been able to come up with an obvious explanation of why newer online companies would produce higher “other” scores than phone pollsters or YouGov.
The normal YouGov/Sun poll will be out later tonight at 10pm. We are also overdue the monthly Populus telephone poll for the Times, though perhaps their online AV poll earlier this month was instead rather than in addition too.