There is a new Angus Reid voting intention poll out, topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%, Others 16%. This is the lowest figure any company has shown for the Conservatives since the height of Cleggmania last year, but Angus Reid have been showing consistently lower levels of support for the Conservatives than other pollsters anyway. So far the only other companies to put the Conservatives below 35% are a single Opinium poll showing them at 34% at the end of March, and a couple of YouGov’s daily polls in early March when they briefly dropped to 33/34% before recovering.

The difference would appear to be connected to a higher score for “other” parties – this is something we also saw during the last Parliament, when newer online companies like Angus Reid, Opinium and Harris tended to show significantly higher levels of support for “other” parties. Harris aren’t conducting regular polls at the moment, but we are certainly seeing the same pattern reappearing with Angus Reid and Opinium (though it seem to have different knock on effects – Angus Reid are showing higher “others” and lower Conservatives. Opinium are showing higher “others” and lower Labour.) I’ve never been able to come up with an obvious explanation of why newer online companies would produce higher “other” scores than phone pollsters or YouGov.

The normal YouGov/Sun poll will be out later tonight at 10pm. We are also overdue the monthly Populus telephone poll for the Times, though perhaps their online AV poll earlier this month was instead rather than in addition too.


72 Responses to “Angus Reid – CON 31, LAB 42, LDEM 11”

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  1. “The difference would appear to be connected to a higher score for “other” parties – this is something we also saw during the last Parliament, when newer online companies like Angus Reid, Opinium and Harris tended to show significantly higher levels of support for “other” parties.”

    Well, and who was closer to the result?

  2. Before anyone gets excited it should be said that this poll is only a one point swing from Con to Lab since the last poll and could easily be simply random sample variation.

    I do hope no-one will be making any highly speculative conclusions about a 2015 GE on this (although all the polls at the moment seem to be showing the Labour leads holding steady – e.g. for YG at around 7 points – so we can be pretty certain that May 5th is heading towards the predictable nightmare for the coalition.)

  3. Christian – annoyingly the difference in “others” faded away when we got into the 2010 election campaign proper, so we never got to make the comparison!

  4. Bad news for Barney: Paddy Power have just lengthened their price on a Barney Crockett victory in Aberdeen Donside to 4/1 (from 7/2). Clearly a fair amount of cash is going on a Brian Adam Hold. He is in to 1/9 (although you can get a more generous 2/5 with Victor Chandler).

    PP have also shortened the SNP price in Aberdeen South, to 1/3. A Lib Dem Hold is now out to 2/1. Same pattern in Aberdeenshire East (Salmond’s seat), and Aberdeenshire West, where an SNP Gain from LD is now priced at EVS.

    I haven’t looked at any prices outwith Aberdeenshire tonight, but the movement is all in one direction: shorter SNP odds all round. Regardless of whether the opponent is Con, Lab or LD.

  5. I hiope you realise, Stuart, that all that means is that more money is being placed on the SNP, and that the bookmakers are shortning their odds in response.

    It probably has very little to do with the actual voting intentions of people in these constituencies.

  6. The Daily Mail does not like David Cameron,He goes to nasty foreign countries and whimpers. He is not ruthless. Now someone has burnt the Koran and is in prison for it. The Daily Mail wonders when the UK will pass anti-Muslim laws like the French.

  7. Stuart,

    PAddy Power had a larger price on Ed Miliband :) In fact, Ali was 12/1 to clonk Liston in ’63 :)

  8. Angus Reid have been consistent:

    Con 35 35 35 35 35 33 32 34 33 32 31
    Lab 38 37 40 41 40 41 43 40 41 41 42
    LD 16 16 13 09 12 12 10 11 10 10 11

    Octx2, Nov, Dec2010, Janx3, Feb, Marx2, Apr2011.

  9. @Stuart Dickson
    Barney is contesting a 13% notional SNP majority in Donside which would be a big ask in any circumstances and so 4/1 doesn’t seem generous. But 4/1 with P Power is still a huge difference compared to the 6/4 which V Chandler continue to offer on Barney. Though not as big as PP’s previous 6/1, it still offers a small arbitrage opportunity combined with Chandler’s 2/5 on the SNP.

    I’m fascinated by the difference in the odds the two companies are offering over a whole series of Scottish Holyrood constituencies. There was nothing like this range of odds in the UK general election constituency markets, and it’s almost as though the two are operating without regard to what the other is offering. Another example: In Caithness SNP are 1/2 with PP and 5/6 with VC, LDs are 6/4 with PP and 5/6 with VC.

    Of the two, Paddy Power seem to be changing their odds more quickly, whereas V Chandler’s have been static over the past few days. With a few exceptions, P Power are offering better odds on Labour, and V Chandler better ones on the SNP.

    The one thing that does seem certain in Scotland is that the LD vote is bound to fall substantially and so most of the seats they’re defending to the SNP and Labour are highly vulnerable. Notably, Chandlers have withdrawn the Orkney seat from their markets – they had been offering 16/1 on the SNP and I suspect they could have become a bit exposed on that.

  10. I wonder whether Angus Reid have this time asked about satisfaction ratings for the party leaders. They didn’t use these questions in their last poll but had done so earlier in the year.

    On past form it’ll be the end of the week before the detailed tables finally appear.

  11. Phil

    Aberdeen Donside

    £100 on Brian Adam @ 2/5 VC
    £28 on Barney Crocket @ 4/1 PP

    will win you £140 if either wins
    Thats £12 profit for a £128 stake
    Of course you lose £128 if there is any other result

    If enough people realise that then the odds will soon get closer

  12. Why on earth would anyone pay attention to Angus Reid is beyond me.

    They wee the most inaccurate of all the polling companies during the election.

    Their last poll before election day was con 36 lab 24 lib 29.

    They couldn’t have been more wrong.

    I’m calling bs on this.

  13. If the Angus Reid figures were replicated at the local elections, how many councillors would Labour win?

  14. Poll of Scottish voters ahead of the SP elections just reported on BBC national news at 10:

    Of 25 policies put to the sample of voters the top three were Health, Policing and University fees.

    Having a referendum on Independence came in at 23rd out of 25 :D

    ***
    Latest YouGov/Sun results 11th April

    CON 36%, LAB 42%, LD 10%

    APP -23

  15. Has it all got boring on Political Betting? They’ve all swanned over here.

  16. Are Yougov overstating Tories polling, by having too larger sample size in the rest of the south ? In the Sunday Times polling, the sample size for the rest of the south appeared to be a bit high compared to other areas. I realise that the population and number of consituencies in the rest of the south are a factor, but how do Yougov decide on sample sizes when conducting polls ?

    Looking at the other data in the Sunday Times poll, would suggest that Labour have a slightly higher rating than the headline figure.

  17. @Dave Bryant
    Here’s another arb.
    Mid Fife
    SNP Tricia Marwick evens (VC)
    Labour Claire Baker 5/4 (PP)
    LD and Con both 125/1 (PP)

  18. if you take a couple of points from others and add them to Conservatives, then it suddenly seems plausible. The Tory vote isn’t zooming across to Labour – it might, but not yet. Or on the other hand,
    they might just be right – but I doubt that.

    I think a lot of any increases will be the result of Tory voters slipping to UKIP – but not firmly so, which is why we keep wobbling between 7% and 10% labour leads atm.

  19. Had to laugh. Oxford Universities ‘outreach’ program aims to increase applications from ‘non conventional’ backgrounds by running events at schools. Over 20% of the schools were private, and 9 events were held at a place called Eton. Very unconventional.

  20. Snoozenight covering the leaked email from the LibDem leader of Liverpool CC imploring Clegg to pull out of the coalition: “we are going to lose hundreds and hundreds of councillors”…..

  21. Amber
    Spice quite definitely do not do political.
    Old Nat
    You should have a word with A Salmond. His entire strategy is to attract finance companies to Scotland through offering lower taxes and less regulation. If you take away the public sector and finance from the Scottish economy then it is a bit sparse. Neil A is obviously correct in that the bail out of the banks had repercussions much greater than we can imagine.
    Dave Bryant
    Your bet is safe. Whatever else happens in Scotland,either B Adam or I will win. There was a time when the Lib Dems had a chance in this constituency but that has gone

  22. Well all will be revealed in 4 weeks time when we have a real election – albeit not covering all of England. YouGov seem to have Lab back to a credible lead of 6%. Cameron’s gaffs strangely do not seem to dent his approval rating – or maybe it is just a matter of time, as it is his personal rating that is all that Cons have going for them at the moment.

    I have Thatcher’s Dad’s Shop in the seat I am contesting in Grantham, great photo-op if we take it. If you are interested it is now an alternative health clinic, with a large ad for reflexology

  23. ‘Others’ does seem high here.
    As the May elections get closer there will be more and more movement in the polls. Others was around 12% at the GE so it will be significant, but 16% ?

    Was the last local elections any guide to others as a size of the block ?

  24. Tonight’s YouGov numbers:

    CON 36%, LAB 42%, LD 10%

  25. @R Huckle

    “Are Yougov overstating Tories polling, by having too larger sample size in the rest of the south ?”

    As we are often counselled on these pages, we must always avoid the silliness of attaching greater credibility to polls whose results best pander to our particular political preferences, but I have some sympathy with your rhetorical question.

    If you look at most of the polling since May 2010, YouGov have consistently shown higher VI ratings for the Tories, and to a lesser extent Labour as well, than all the other pollsters. Even though they’ve detected the recent slow downward glide path in Tory support, they’re still doing it now, recently having them as high as 38% (March 28th).

    Now, because of their daily polling, YouGov are producing a proliferation of polls and crowding the field, so the far less frequent polls, by their very nature, appear to be rogues and outliers, especially when they tell a starkly different picture to YouGov. This doesn’t mean they’re wrong though, particularly when you see the commonality of their basic findings when they do sporadically appear. In most of these polls, the Tories have been in the lower 30%s and, on the odd occasion when we’ve had real votes cast in parliamentary and local council by-elections, these lower projections would appear to be much nearer the mark.

    I’m aware of the distorting effects of differential turn out and local issues and how national projections can be wildly out when applied to local council elections, but, nonetheless, they usually provide a decent reflection of the standing of the parties at any given time in the electoral cycle. I expect the forthcoming elections in May 2011 to provide such a picture again and I’d be staggered if the Tories get anywhere near the percentage vote share suggested by the recent YouGov polls. They’ve rarely got in the late 30s in good years for them when they were the beneficiaries of an unpopular government getting a firm mid-term chastisement and only once have they achieved 40% in a nationally convened poll, of any sort, in the last 20 years.

    I rather suspect, just as the May 2010 GE did, that the forthcoming council elections will remind us yet again of the inherent electoral weakness of the Tories. It was probably hyperbole from Geoffrey Wheatcroft to bemoan the Strange Death of Tory England during the Blair hegemonic years, but we mustn’t get too carried away with notions of a renaissance either. The Phoenix may be flapping its wings a little more energetically now, but I still detect a lot of ash on the feathers!!

  26. R Huckle – regional weightings are pretty much standard, all pollsters use census data or ONS mid-year population estimates for it. The YG rest of South looks large because it is the South East and the South-West and the East of England regions.

    Mick Park – others was about 10% at the 2010 election. Pretty much all polls are of Great Britain, not the UK (i.e. they exclude Northern Ireland), hence you need to compare to the 2010 GB shares of the vote, not the UK shares of the vote. Local elections are no guide at all, since people vote differently in them to general elections.

  27. To summarize late March/early April polls in EU countries (+Croatia), if GE were to be held tomorrow everywhere, we would probably have the following results: Center-left would win in all big-4: Labour OM in UK, SPD+Green OM in Germany, socialist-led left alliance landslide in France, center-left alliance OM in Italy (albeit with a small lead in votes). The rest of Europe would be divided between Center-Left and Center-Right. C/L would conquer Croatia, Denmark, Lithuania, Malta, Romania and Slovakia and retain Cyprus and Greece. C/R would conquer Spain and Slovenia and retain Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia and Sweden. FInally, Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg and Eire would have grand coalitions as now, and will be joined by Portugal (actually C/L), Czech Republic (actually C/R) and maybe Poland (actually C/R). The Netherlands are completely uncertain, since neither C/R government nor C/L opposition seem capable of obtaining majority, and this will be in the hands of very small parties which belong to neither camp, so maybe a grand coalition there also.

  28. @Anthony Wells

    Yes, that was lazy of me to try and carry the others from the GE to here. You are of course quite correct that local elections are not the same as a GE.
    However the May elections will inevitably be used as the most solid metric to which all the recent polling will be held.
    How the actual voting numbers crunch out to each Party’s polling will be the subject of much interesting debate I’m guessing. ;-)

  29. Anthony

    I wonder if the problem with Angus Reid’s others versus YouGov’s is because AR weight by past vote while YG weight by Party ID. Now many voters who support one of the ‘minor’ parties may simply not have had the chance to vote for for their favorite at the last election if a candidate was not standing. Others voters may have decided not to waste their vote and gone for one of the big three (or not voted at all).

    As a result they won’t recorded under ‘Others’ in AR, though they would be with YG. Now I suspect that supporters of the smaller Parties tend to be over-represented on polling panels – the sort of people confident enough to support an ‘unusual’ Party may also be more likely to be assertive enough to want to have their say on all sort of matters. Where better place than a polling panel.

    YouGov seems, despite your best efforts, still be down-weighting Others by a factor of 2 or 3. AR seem to need minimal weighting on this. I know there may be other factors, but this might explain why AR are getting higher figures for Others. They are picking up ‘converts’ to them who were really adherents all the time.

    Why on earth would anyone pay attention to Angus Reid is beyond me.

    leetay

    Why on earth would anyone pay attention to Angus Reid is beyond me.

    They wee the most inaccurate of all the polling companies during the election.

    Their last poll before election day was con 36 lab 24 lib 29.

    They couldn’t have been more wrong.

    Oh I don’t know. What’s a couple of vowels between friends. :)

  30. Sorry the first ‘Why on earth would anyone pay attention to Angus Reid is beyond me.’ above was a misplaced quote from leetay, not my own opinion.

    Damn you copy and paste!

  31. Roger Mexico

    More appropriately

    “Damn you, lack of an edit facility!”

  32. Roger,

    YG also weight by PV.

  33. Populus poll in The Times:

    Con 36 (+1)
    Lab 40 (-1)
    LD 11 (unch)

  34. “Populus poll in The Times:

    Con 36 (+1)
    Lab 40 (-1)
    LD 11 (unch”

    change well within moe

  35. @ Old Nat

    You will appreciate this story (maybe). Or it might remind you of why you’re a proud and feirce Nat.

    h ttp://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/apr/11/mayor-council-members-arrested/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS

    h ttp://www.washingtonpost.com/local/politics/gray-council-members-arrested-at-protest-of-dc-riders-in-spending-bill/2011/04/11/AFRWPBND_story.html?hpid=z1

    I will say though that Vince is more of an activist and protester than his Scottish cousin Ian. I can’t imagine Ian as First Minister going and getting himself arrested while protesting David Cameron. :)

  36. UK retail sales suffer worst fall on record in March, Royal Insititute of Chartered Surveyors says the housing market is stil in the toilet with no prospect of changing while globally the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster just jumped to Level 7 equalling Chernobyl.

    Events dear boy, events.

    Were I a Chancellor I would quickly dust off that plan B that they were pretending they don’t have.

  37. TGB,

    ” Ali was 12/1 to clonk Liston in ’63″

    The longest priced winner at the UK GE in May 2010 was that Alliance wifie who whopped the NI FM. She was 14/1 the day prior to Polling Day. 2nd longest was the Tory who whopped Lembik Opik. I think he was about 5/2.

    Otherwise, approx 99% of the 650 winners were odds-on Favs in the betting markets well before Polling Day.

    Bookies do lose sometimes, but I would be highly reluctant to put a fiver on a candidate priced as long as 4/1, if it wasn’t for the huge arb.

    Unless you have astoundingly good local intellingence (eg. you have been canvassing those local streets for 20 years), I’d strongly advise against placing more than a token bet on a candidate priced longer than 5/1.

    Mind you, I’m a bit tempted by the 50/1 available on Lab in Caithness, Sutherland & Ross. That is just ridiculously long. 3/1 would be more like it, cos it is a 3-way marginal. SNP 1, Lab 2, LD 3 is a strong possibility. All within 1000 votes of each other.

  38. Stuart,

    My best friend’s called Pete. In a horse race in 1998 he threw the kitchen sink at the long outsider in a three horse race simply because the horse was called ‘punting Pete’. It romped home. Ever since then I have had a healthy disrespect for the expertise of bookmakers.

  39. Need to keep the retail sales figures in perspective. The 3.5% ‘worst ever fall’ is very poor, but as the figures only go back 6 years it doesn’t necessarily mean armegeddon. However, it clearly isn’t good news, with a trend since mid Jan of contracting spending.

    It has been severe enough to dent growth in manufacturing, which will be the added worry. I still maintain those who assumed we would climb out of the recession with relative ease were living in cloud cuckoo land and that talk of an Osborne war chest by 2015 will be fanciful.

    What we could well be witnessing is the Irish Solution – cuts not producing the required level of deficit reduction due to the knock on effects to growth and revenues, with the realisation too late that a more appropriate path would have been a steadier balance between the timing of cuts and attempts at growth.

  40. Interesting link below. Looks like at the same time it provides us with an example of a poor NHS PFI scheme, an idea of what will come with the NHS bill, and a moral commentary of the unjust subject of tax avoidance.

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-13035648

  41. Consequences for the UK (“Mox option”) from events at Fufushima:

    h
    ttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/governments-doomed-6bn-plan-to-dispose-of-nuclear-waste-2266047.html

  42. I’m not trying to make a partisan point here as the situation may well be reversed in parts of the country where the Conservative Party is particularly weak. However, are we seeing the gradual disappearance of some established party organisations at constituency level? I live in Torquay and locally:

    In south Devon there are more Green candidates than Labour:

    http://www.peoplesrepublicofsouthdevon.co.uk/2011/04/07/south-devon-greens-field-40-candidates-in-local-elections/

    The Lib Dems are standing in fewer than half of Plymouth’s wards:

    http://www.peoplesrepublicofsouthdevon.co.uk/2011/04/06/plymouth-labour-calls-for-voters-disillusioned-by-lib-dems-and-those-without-a-lib-dem-candidate/

    Whatever someone tells a pollster is irrelevant if a party can’t even get a paper candidate to stand…

  43. Anthony,

    There is Populus polling materail in the Times today. Its behind the paywall so I cannot tell if it includes a VI

  44. SoCalLiberal

    You have to have sympathy for DC residents – being used as a guinea pigs by right wing nutters in the Government has got to be bad. After the poll tax debacle, we can sympathise.

    You’re right about dour Ian’s response to protest though. If you haven’t seen it –

    http://news.stv.tv/election-2011/242107-iain-gray-cuts-station-visit-short-after-organised-protest/

  45. ALEC

    “I still maintain those who assumed we would climb out of the recession with relative ease were living in cloud cuckoo land and that talk of an Osborne war chest by 2015 will be fanciful.”

    Agreed.

    This is turning a supertanker around .

  46. Sarkozy’s management of the end game in Ivory Coast does the job-and receives pas de critique from la gauche ici.

    He is the only one talking sense on Libya-lets hope he turns his attentions to it now.

  47. Inflation CPI falls to 4.0%

  48. Alec

    Do you know if Gordon Brown got a fee and did he offshore it?

  49. I’m somewhat concerned by the sudden surprise drop in Inflation. If the drop in inflation stops back down in the target area, great. If it drops below that, then we’re in trouble. As mentioned above, we’re “turning around the supertanker”, it’s now too late for government to react to what appears to be a recession in the retail sector to prevent price deflation. If we see average salary deflation kick in, then we’ll skip over recession and go straight to depression well before they can find a plan B.

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