Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%. Leaving aside that 10 point Labour lead that looks like a bit of an outlier, YouGov’s Labour lead seems to have settled at around 6-7 points now the budget bounce has subsided.

Note that I’ve also added another chunk of Opinium polls to the latest polling figures – at the same time as ICM were showing the Conservative lead and YouGov were showing the Labour lead down to 3 points Opinium were showing a tie between Labour and the Conservatives. It’s reversed again now, but there definitely was a very short lived boost just after the budget.


110 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 36, LAB 42, LDEM 11”

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  1. Barbaz,

    I’m now pretty sure that Sunday Times contains a panel base holyrood poll.

    SNP ahead 5% [reg.]

  2. Anthony,

    Also an ICM poll [for BBC] on Libya 38% say yup bomb em 35% say nope

  3. ANTHONY WELLS
    Barbarenzero – you’ve already had the voting intention of the Scotland on Sunday poll. They are doing joint polls with the Scotsman, so their questions were on the back of the Scotsman poll earlier in the week.

    Thanks – that obviously explains it. I presume that YouGov will publish the detail in due course. I looked on the YouGov website and see that the Scotsman poll has been revised to include the weightings, but not these questions.

  4. 53% back bombing IRAQ [ICM march 2003]
    38% back bombing LIBY [ICM march 2011]

  5. The polling in recent months has shown that despite all the tax increases and spending cuts Labour are unable to sustain a lead of more than circa 5-6 points (if that). All that has happened is that the 50% or so of LibDem voters who voted for them because they had more left wing policies than Labour (mansion tax etc) have switched to Labour since the coalition was formed. Beyond that Labour have failed to convince anyone.
    Additionally Labour has bet the house on a double dip recession (remember during the election even modest cuts were going to ‘plunge’ Britain ‘immediately’ back into recession), which nearly all independent economic bodies now regard as highly unlikely. Yes growth has been down-graded, but at 1.7% is still a good deal away from being negative. The second thing that Labour has pinned its hopes on is that the majority of people will be hit massively by the cuts, this too is far from certain and with household feeling the pinch they may well welcome the fact that Council Tax has been frozen (rather than revalued under Labour), and the fuel duty is down (rather than up under Labour), and that Bank of England base interest rates are still at .5% (which would almost certainly have risen under Labours tax and spend policies). Yes there is pain in the public sector but nearly all these people vote Labour anyway, and only account for a fifth of the working population.

  6. Barbaz/Anthony

    There is defintootly a new Holyrood poll in the Times

    Holyrood (Panelbase) http://t.co/IPkeUVR

  7. [snip – AW]

    Getting back to reality for a momernt: as AW said- a tiny and very short lived budget bounce and now the position is back to the sustained 6% lead which is one of the quickest and best opposition party post-election turnarounds in modern UK electoral history.

    Bodes well for Labour on May 5th!

  8. Blues got 37% 11 Months ago
    Recent polls show blue on c.35-6%.

    Most governments after a year of CB/HB/VAT/War/Fuel/CSR/Cuts or talk off would accept that polling performance.

    Reds got 30% 11 months ago
    recent polls show c.41-2%

    Most oppositions after 13 years of government, were they made a mess of Iraq, deficit and immigration would more than accept that polling performance..

    They are both doing well.

    T’is the poor wee Libs that are fecked,.

  9. Re the Panelbase poll, the ST detail is behind their paywall but the PA have put out a press release on it here confirming:

    The Panelbase poll of 1,000 Scots for The Sunday Times puts the SNP and Labour neck-and-neck at 37-37 in the constituency vote, while the nationalists lead 37-32 in the regional vote.

    Also a few quotes from the ubiquitous Prof, saying the poll highlighted the key weakness of Labour’s campaign as “the lack of a personality capable of reaching out to voters“.

  10. Barbaz,

    Its the % that recognise Gray that is most noteworthy I think…

  11. Robert
    “(remember during the election even modest cuts were going to ‘plunge’ Britain ‘immediately’ back into recession)”

    I’m trying to remember, but could do with a little help. Can you support your claim/comment with proof?

  12. Robert,

    Be careful..

    UK Plc resembles a ski slope at present….

    Q2 1.1%+
    Q3 0.7%+
    Q4 -0.5%

    In 26weeks to go from annualised growth rate [extrapolating 1.1% x 4 = 4.4%] to -2.0% is the stuff skiing legends are made off… It has a gradient to make a hand break useless.

    Darling & GO are/were both wrong. Stimulus works.

  13. Robert, deduct an ‘f’ off off for me please… = of :)

  14. @AW – “I have weeded this thread of comments that really don’t reflect……”

    If the trend for song lyrics gets going, could you also weed out anything by Morrisey and the Smiths? probably the most dirgey, over rated and pointless band of the C20th.
    [Step back and watch the eruption…]

    @Robert – “(remember during the election even modest cuts were going to ‘plunge’ Britain ‘immediately’ back into recession)”

    Suggest you wait until April 22nd before making that comment. I think the Q1 GDP figures will be very touch and go on whether we are already back in recession officially, but regardless of that, there is a very strong chance that the figures will show an economy smaller than it was 6 months ago.

  15. THE GREEN BENCHES
    Its the % that recognise Gray that is most noteworthy I think…

    Noteworthy, but not entirely surprising given his few appearances so far, I think.

    BBC Scotland seem to be doing their bit to change it, judging by their composite photo here, which was the subject of much criticism in another place yesterday, noting the absence of the FM and the pensive looks of all but Mr Gray.

    BTW folks, please feel free to refer to me as BZ if you hate Copy & Paste.

  16. “Also a few quotes from the ubiquitous Prof, saying the poll highlighted the key weakness of Labour’s campaign as “the lack of a personality capable of reaching out to voters“.

    Always a key issue- in some senses THE key issue (as proved brilliantly (sic) by Gordon Brown 2007- 2010.

    If (at the national level) Labour are still having similar problems with EDMs personal ratings circa late 2013, as they vare now, then I predict a leadership change.

    Unless the Lib Dems bail out of the coailition (which is not unlikely) and there is a GE before Labour are able to have the changeover.

  17. Barbaz,

    Yes true..

  18. ROB SHEFFIELD
    If (at the national level) Labour are still having similar problems with EDMs personal ratings circa late 2013, as they vare now, then I predict a leadership change.

    My comment to Éoin was tongue-in-cheek. EdM doesn’t look much like Iain Gray, and I suspect more than 27% of the Scottish electorate could identify him from a picture. I haven’t noticed “best PM” poll ratings lately, but I doubt EdM is below 10%, unlike Iain Gray in the Scottish FM stakes.

    EdM’s ratings do indeed need to improve if he is to remain leader, but Lab is likely to do reasonably well in the Welsh Assembly and English council elections, so any failure in Scotland will be laid very much at Mr Gray’s door.

  19. BZ

    yep- I was referring to national picture and in 2013: not devolved and locals now.

    EdM will get the boost that all ‘perceived winners’ get from a thumping victory accross the board (Wales. Scotland and English locals) in a few weeks.

    Whereas Clegg and (to a lesser degree) Cameron will get ratings attrition from being unquestionably ‘losers’ and all those interviews where they have to explain why the previous nights results were ‘not actually bad at all’ etc etc ad nauseam.

    Though Cameron does seem to have that Tony Blair ability to front things up and take them on the chin (Clegg far more egotistically fragile).

    But EdM’s ratings need to have improved permanently by 2013 (post Labours policy review and three years into standard of living back-to-back annual decreases alongside jobless growth). Or he is probably out. And some on here won’t like the potential replacements ;-)

  20. Of the 26 Universities to have so far declared their intentions re: fees. 20 have opted to charge the top whack £9,000. The rest are charging from at least £7,500 (mostly more). Not one is offering courses for £6,000.

    The government claimed that the average fee charged would be £7,500 and their funding calculations are based on this.

    This surely plays against both constituencies within the Coalition. The ones that want less tax will not be happy because the high fees mean greater initial expense to the taxpayer. And the ones that voted for no fees, well….

    And today Lib Dem Andrew George is quoted about the NHS reforms as saying “If we get this wrong it would have a more significant impact on the party and the country than the difficulties we had over university tuition fees.”

    It would appear the difficulties over tuition fees are not over and difficulties over the NHS have only just begun.

  21. ROB SHEFFIELD

    “yep- I was referring to national picture and in 2013: not devolved and locals now.
    EdM will get the boost that all ‘perceived winners’ get from a thumping victory accross the board (Wales. Scotland and English locals) in a few weeks.”

    You weren’t referring to the devolved elections, yet you do precisely that. Consistency one of your weak points?

    On a polling site, some recognition that polls indicate that if Labour do become the largest party it won’t be a “thumping victory”, might have been useful.

  22. ROB SHEFFIELD

    Whatever the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is, it isn’t a single nation, so when you use terms like “national picture” you obfuscate, just as Éoin’s “Only 27% of Scots were able to identify Iain Gray when shown a photo of the Labour leader” would have done in the minds of any Labour supporter.

  23. The first tie by Opinium was pre-Budget. This might suggest a bounce from Libya not GO.

    It does not suit my analysis but it is right I should at least flag it up as a possibility.

  24. But all this merely underlines the salience of personality in modern politics….accidents affect substance…Labour in Scotland has had a leadership problem since Donald Dewer’s untimely death….

    It may be this in the end won’t affect outcomes…it may be it does…that naturallly makes in interesting…and important for Mr Ed Milliband given his polling issues for the present….

    On the issue of cuts affecting those who vote Labour…I think there’s less truth in that than commonly perceived….many middle class pensioners for example are very dependent upon services provided by local government….

    Also one must bear in mind these Labour voters have historically been the least motivated to vote…or even put themselves on the register…that may be changed and…as Obama’s election in the USA showed…people can be motivated to register and it can change outcomes electorally….Virginia and Indiana come to mind in the election…..

    I still think the most important long term result will be the referendum result as it impinges directly upon the LibDems and the politics of coalition….

    If the government does pull the plug on the NHS reforms…where does that leave their strategy of cuts and reforms….The last thing any government wants to establish in the electorate’s mind is that it panics at the first whiff of grapeshot…. occasional U turns can be good…habitually they’re bad…the politics of this is very interesting….

  25. John Murphy,

    Scotland Labour had God-don, oops I mean Gor-don :)

  26. BZ

    “Whatever the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland”

    Er, its the basis of each General Election (for starters).

    And- once again- THAT is what I was referring to!

    Stop being so obsessed with one UK ‘hoekje’ (as the Flemmings say).

    8-)

  27. Oldnat (forit is he)

    “On a polling site, some recognition that polls indicate that if Labour do become the largest party it won’t be a “thumping victory”, might have been useful.”

    It depends how you define ‘thumping victory’ really doesn’t it.

    Objectivism not one of your strong points is it!

  28. Has anyone else noticed the total nonsense in the notoav ad on this site? We’re being told that eliminating the least popular candidate (e.g. BNP) might “swing the election” and how terrible that would be.

    Well it won’t happen. In the most straightforward case of a two-horse race, it makes no difference in what order the remaining candidates are eliminated! Whichever one of the two gets over 50% of them it is completely impossible for the other one to get 50% even if all other candidates are eliminated.

    And if we are talking about the relatively rare three-horse race, then that will only typically get decided when one of the three gets eliminated. Again the preferences of the 4th, 5th, 6th… candidates are treated equally and it makes no difference what order they are eliminated in.

    It is just about possible to construct scenarios where the order of elimination matters but under AV these are going to be about as frequent as a blue moon.

  29. ROB SHEFFIELD
    Er, its the basis of each General Election (for starters).

    Not so. The forthcoming May election in the nation of Scotland is defined in the Scotland Act 1998 as a general election qualified by the adjective ordinary.

    I’m not daft enough to deny that the UK exists, but whatever it is not a nation but a kind of amalgum of nations. As a member state of the UN the word state would be valid in the context in which you use nation.

  30. Rob Sheffield

    Ah! You use “newspeak”!

    Lab scrape home as largest party by 1 MSP = “thumping victory”.

    As you say, it’s all semantics.

  31. “These failures mean that I don’t believe IRV is a significantly better system than plurality voting (and, arguably, the added complexity of the method mean it’s a -worse- system).”

    Sam’s contributions on the previous thread, I found thought provoking. Most people will think AV does away with the need for tactical voting… but his explanation of “compromise” and “pushover” shows that tactical voting could over time return by the backdoor.

    Although Ausralia is different because it is a legal requirement to exhaust preferences, the parties there do issue detailed instructions on preference order to their supporters.

  32. BZ, The word you seek is a Federation :)

  33. TGB

    A Federation would have a constitution which prevented one nation’s Parliament doubling up as the Federal Parliament and making up the rules as it meanders along.

  34. I might be off-topic, but I would like, in the name of South European Socialist and center-left democrats, pay tribute to a great figure of our political family, Spanish PM J. L. Rodriguez Zapatero, who yesterday announced his decision not to stand as PSOE leader in next GE. ZP, as he is familiarly called, made more than any other Spanish politician to promote gender equality, LGBT rights, ethnic and linguistic minorities rights and freedom of expression. But the post-2008 financial crises made visible the structural deficiencies of Spanish economy and it was ZP that took all the blame, especially for the high unemployment rate (the strongest in Europe). So the right-wing enemies of ZP may triumph now, since the point is that their deep aversion for him is not due to divergences about economy (either way, unlike UK conservatives, whose line is very clear, no one knows what the PP is really proposing), but their cultural opposition to what he stands. A significant part or PPers (not all of them, though), are bigots and reactionary and have their political roots in Franco’s regime, which differentiates them from other democratic right-wing European parties such as French Gaullists, British conservatives or Italian, Belgian etc. Christian Democrats. For now, they may win, but let us hope that real Spain will never again resemble the country they have in their heads.

  35. THEGREENBENCHES
    The word you seek is a Federation

    That would be an improvement on the status quo but does not reflect it. A confederation on Swiss lines might just keep the UK together, but I don’t foresee any solution short of that as holding it together for long.

  36. BZ,

    The Swiss operate what is known as Consociational Democracy [similar in some ways to Ireland north]. It is not necessary in Scotland because you are on the whole a united country.

  37. TGB

    Don’t get BZ started! He lives in Switzerland. :-)

  38. THEGREENBENCHES

    The Swiss operate what is known as Consociational Democracy
    Quite so.

    It is not necessary in Scotland because you are on the whole a united country.
    Arguably so, although religious divides are still evident which would benefit from the Swiss approach. However, I see no reason at all why the nations of a confederal UK should be forced by the centre to have common internal polities. It’s the relations between those nations which could survive with a confederal/consociational polity.

  39. Lol Oldie I did not know that! How did he manage to get so Browned off living there?

  40. BZ,

    On a ladder of status u have the option of 1. protectorate 2. principality 3. Anchluss 4. devolution 5. Federal links 6. Dominion Status 7. Independence..

    Labour prefer it to have Scotland in at no. 4..
    FFA would push you guys to no. 5.

    You really don’t disagree that much.

    Problem in Ireland is that our republicans pushed for no.7. and ended up with a very diluted 4.

  41. THEGREENBENCHES
    Lol Oldie I did not know that! How did he manage to get so Browned off living there?

    As an expat recently fully retired from a UN agency at 62, I paid voluntary NIC to preserve my UK pension, have paid UK taxes throughout my exile and anticipate returning to be a GB resident at 65.

  42. BZ,

    I was being flippant :) As you know I can be.

  43. Barbazenzero

    I hadn’t realised you are fully retired now. Congratulations.

  44. THEGREENBENCHES
    FFA would push you guys to no. 5.
    You really don’t disagree that much.

    FFA would be a good start, and because of the two separate crowns – which few see as a priority to remove – your #6 wouldn’t be appropriate. I see #7 as inevitable unless a #5 can be worked out which shares responsibilities instead of ordering them.

    I know more about the Irish Republic than Northern Ireland and have visited the former more often but know enough about both not to advise any denizen of that island on their polity.

  45. OLDNAT
    I hadn’t realised you are fully retired now. Congratulations.

    Thanks. Only since mid-March, so there was no reason you should have known.

  46. Do any of the Scots on this site consider that in the face of their predicted electoral meltdown the LDs have a better than evens chance of holding on to Edinburgh Western in May, where they got a notional 39.6% of the vote last time? (After marginal changes from the old Edinburgh West constituency).

    If you don’t, note that the betting odds on them losing must seem good value. You can get 9/2 on the SNP taking the seat (from 22.5% last time), and 8/1 Labour (from 15.4%).

  47. @ Rob

    And some on here won’t like the potential replacements….
    —————————————–
    It won’t be David, if that’s what you are hinting.
    8-)

  48. @ Anthony
    Sorry I should not rise to the bait from other posters.

  49. BZ,

    We could just do a Dalai Lama and hunt down Bonny Prince Charlie’s offspring?

  50. VIRGILIO
    Spanish PM J. L. Rodriguez Zapatero … ZP, as he is familiarly called,

    Mr Bean is actually more common, due to his uncanny resemblence to Mr Atkinson in that role. But, to be fair, it’s a term used normally in a much more simpatico sense than the former St. Vince did re duff Gordon.

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