Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 11%. Leaving aside that 10 point Labour lead that looks like a bit of an outlier, YouGov’s Labour lead seems to have settled at around 6-7 points now the budget bounce has subsided.

Note that I’ve also added another chunk of Opinium polls to the latest polling figures – at the same time as ICM were showing the Conservative lead and YouGov were showing the Labour lead down to 3 points Opinium were showing a tie between Labour and the Conservatives. It’s reversed again now, but there definitely was a very short lived boost just after the budget.


110 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 36, LAB 42, LDEM 11”

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  1. Anthony,

    Your budget graphic was cool. I’d love to see it with the new budget data on it.. Do we have to wait until next March? :)

  2. I would never want to be the sort of person who said, “I told you so”

    But didn’t I say last week that Lab lead would be +6 by the end of the week?

    Pity I don’t have the courage to bet!

    So we are back where we started two weeks ago.

    What’s the next possible tremor to ripple through voting intention before 5th May?

  3. Before the budget and Libya the lead had been 7-8% so over the last 2 weeks or so there has been a sligt narrowing.

  4. 4 polls from 10-15 March 2010.. had Labour with 10.25% average lead..

    budget bounce has subsided for sure, but reds are not riding as high as the once were.

  5. From this point forward….coming to a town near you…the cuts begin to bite…Part I The Shoppers’ Mauling! Part II The Benefit Snatchers Part III One bite to Far….

    I think that’ll be the hysterical tone unless…the media find something else that blows everything off the news agenda!

  6. Eoin – it comes out but once a year ;)

  7. I live next door to someone who works in a jobcentre and she says it is terrible at work because they are being asked to be incredibly harsh jumping on any minor mistake on filling out forms. She says they have been told the aim is “to get people off benefits” rather than back into work.

    Nice …

    Not only is it terrible, but it will hardly help the recovery.

    But on polling (before I get into trouble …) – it will be interesting to see whether the ebbs and flows of the AV referendum will have any affect on VI. It will be interesting to see if one side gets the upper hand (e.g. Yes to AV ahead) whether it might up turnout on the other side (e.g. Tories flock to the polls).

  8. 4 polls from 10-15 March 2011.. had Labour with 6.5% average lead.. depends on the ones you use I take it you ment 2011.

  9. Well, the Royal Wedding, Libya and Cuts, Cuts, Cuts are going to be affecting the voting intention I guess.

    Libya could turn at any point and with NATO bombing and killing twelve rebels today people might start thinking this will be a new Afghanistan; we arm the rebels and send them off to die in droves and when they finally are victorious we backstab them and they in turn use our own weapons against us.

    That’s what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object – neither side makes any progress and it becomes a cold war, in this case between Gaddafi and the Rebels.

    The Wedding could give a sense of optimism to people but I guess that would be shortlived as the very next day you wake up to the harsh reality of the cuts.

    I’m predicting Labour will be going ahead in the polls now that the cuts are going into effect and as more and more tragic cases of suffering and misery turn up in the media the Tories will experience a flight in voters. The real effect of the cuts won’t be felt until long after though, and with the election being in 2015 lots of neo-liberal governments throughout the world will have been replaced with Red-Greens with Keynesian policies being put in place.

    Also, does anyone know how I can get a rosy background? this grey one is so dull :(

  10. Lib Dems on 11% !

    Landslide.

  11. 4 polls 10-15 March 2011 :) [YouGov since we are comparing like with like] had a 10.25% lead for reds

  12. Karl Marx

    As one would expect, there aren’t many street parties in Scotland (and many of these seem to be organised by English expats – and nothing wrong with them keeping their traditions.)

    As an outsider, I found the north-south divide in England interesting.

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/04/01/article-0-0B71ADB700000578-806_468x458.jpg

  13. There is still time for things to change, but on the basis of these polling figures it looks like Labour are heading for the kind of modest local election success that it enjoyed in its opposition years of 1980, 1981, 1986 and 1989.

    This will still mean big gains for Labour – after all, we are fighting from the low electoral base of May 2007 – but one suspects that our projected national vote lead will be pretty modest (and not one, so far, that will carry us through to a general election victory).

    No doubt the role of the party spokespersons on the BBC local election night programme will be a reversal of previous years, with Labour politicians proclaiming that the results show they are on their way back to government and Tory talking heads (aided by the more sensible of the psephologists) pointing out that it’s just mid-term blues.

    Incidentally, I predict the Lib Dems will not do quite as badly as the polls imply: the last time their national support collapsed (just after the merger in May 1988) the new Social & Liberal Democrat party easily outperformed its dire national poll ratings. In fact, its performance was on a par with that turned in by the SDP/Liberal Alliance in local elections throughout much of the mid-1980s when its poll ratings had been much higher.

    We’ll see if their grassroots local campaigning can buck the poll trend once again.

  14. Karl Marx

    It’s always amazed me that those in the North of England have continued to elect metropolitan carpet-baggers in as Labour MPs – when those self same MPs have continually supported the transfer of wealth to London and the SE.

  15. The last 5 polls average 35% for the Tories; the previous 7 averaged 37%. Support seems to be ebbing away from the senior Coalition party while their junior partners, the Lib Dems, have held firm. What are we to make of this quite extraordinary development and, more significantly, can we deduce what effect this will have on the general election result which, as we all know, is only 4 years away?

  16. @ Old Nat

    I was talking about a street party for Ed M’s wedding.

    My friend said: Enjoy yourself, you’ll be sitting alone on the kerb drinking Jack D straight out the bottle.

    She votes SNP. ;-)

  17. The young Ulster PC was only 25.

    What sort of animals?

  18. I would like to point out to Robin Hood, that one year into a five year (?) parliament is not mid-term.

  19. Colin

    Would it have been less heinous if he was 52?

  20. Amber,

    Whatever your friend votes, and whatever your favoured tipple is, she’s right about you being on your own on that one.

  21. Next time there’s a coronation, does the drain cover get sent back to London to be shoved under the coronation chair?

  22. Government’s lose elections, and usually on the economy. All measures are going bad for the coalition, thus their unpopularity – the budget gave people hope – and the Coalition a mini bounce – but reality came back and they are on the way down again.

    Latest manufacturing figures look dire for March (just out) – tax rises hit next month – the coalition’s economic policies have failed and they will pay the price in May.

    They are quietly changing tack but I doubt if they will go far enough to save themselves in the short or medium term

  23. @SocalLiberal

    I was amused to read your references to “Dubya” (aka George Bush) in some of your recent posts and, on being reminded of the great man, I’ve been meaning to ask you this question. Considering old Dubya and his neo-con coterie of close advisers used to call the French “cheese-eating surrender monkeys” because of Chirac’s stance on Iraq, do you think, after the bellicose Sarkozy’s militaristic stand on Libya, that they might now be calling them “freedum-lubbers”?

    Just a thought. lol

  24. Not sure teh cuts will swing so many votes. Many peopel blame the cuts on the previous administration

  25. POLL ALERT POLL ALERT

    Rumours just starting to circulate up north about a Sunday newspaper poll showing the SNP ahead in Scottish elections.

    No more details as yet but watch this space.

    Squeaky bum time for Labour?

  26. I wonder if their opposition to AV will provoke a high turnout from Tory voters on 5th May, and result in fewer losses for the Tories in council elections than is being predicted?

  27. Bert,

    Interesting thought! Maybe..

  28. There’s something strange about the Tory VI. Overlay smoothed data for the last half of the last 2 months, and they show gentle oscillations that almost exactly match.

    I wonder if voters’ are less focussed on the economy at the start of the month (when they’ve been paid), but start to think more about their personal circumstances nearer the end of the month (when they are tightening belts before the next paycheque arrives).

    It would explain some of the wobble we’ve seen. Another possibility is that it’s related to the regular timing of economic statistics.

    Whatever, the polls are nearly flat once we smooth out sampling error and remove monthly oscillation. The average of the last 5 polls in each of the last 3 months has been:
    Jan – 39/43/9
    Feb – 37/43/10
    Mar – 36/43/10

    There’s perhaps been a small drift away from Con to Others (probably UKIP), but otherwise nothing. Today’s poll seems right on the money.

    Unless something happens in Libya with catastrophic domestic implications, I think it’s highly likely that any solid movement between now and the elections/referendum can be directly linked to the first set of cuts and/or disorganisation of the NHS.

  29. @ Old Nat

    “As one would expect, there aren’t many street parties in Scotland (and many of these seem to be organised by English expats – and nothing wrong with them keeping their traditions.)

    As an outsider, I found the north-south divide in England interesting.”

    Hmmmm, I’m glad to know that Scots are not into this strange ritual. I don’t mean to insult the royal family here either (I understand the reasons for keeping around a royal family….plus I think it’s probably against the comments policy to insult the Queen or blood relatives) but to have a street party for anyone’s wedding is just kinda weird. It’s like, if you weren’t invited to the wedding and/or you don’t know the spouses to be, why are you involving yourself? And why are you celebrating a marriage? I mean, it doesn’t have any tangible impact on you whatsoever. The exception to this would be that a street party for a wedding is not weird if it’s the decision of the spouses getting married to have their wedding party in the street. One of the best recent weddings I went to was on New Year’s Eve in Las Vegas on the strip (complete with an Elvis impersonator). I hate Las Vegas but the wedding was actually kinda enjoyable (moreso than most weddings I’ve gone to in recent years).

    @ Amber Star

    “I was talking about a street party for Ed M’s wedding.

    My friend said: Enjoy yourself, you’ll be sitting alone on the kerb drinking Jack D straight out the bottle.

    She votes SNP.”

    You know, I was excited for Chelsea Clinton’s wedding (and no offense to Kate Middleton and William Windor but their wedding will pale in comparison to the Clinton-Mezvinsky wedding) because she’s someone who I admire. She’s a good person and she handled herself very well despite growing up in the public spotlight that was often negative towards her. I actually met her once, I was both impressed with her but also totally surprised by how incredibly shy she is. And other family members and friends of mine who have met her have shared the same sentiment as me. She deserved the wedding of the century.

    Now I obviously was not on the invitation list (and I was not surprised not to be on the invite list either for that matter). But if I had been, I would have been through the roof with excitement (or as you Scots might say, “a cockahoop”?) just to have been on the list (sorta like my fantasy of one day being a guest on Barefoot Contessa as one of Ina Garten’s friends). Notwithstanding my distaste for weddings, I definitely would have gone to Chelsea’s. So yes, I was excited for her and I was glad to read that her wedding turned out to be a fabulous event. Did I throw a street party for the wedding or celebrate it in other ways? No. It didn’t personally affect me or involve me in any way. And frankly, I think it would be kinda weird.

    Now I would oppose your Ed Miliband wedding street party on principle (like your SNP voting friend). But since David Cameron has proclaimed that people all over England will be celebrating the William-Kate wedding in street parties, I say go for it. Being an individual is a good thing.

    Frankly, for Cameron, I think he sees this wedding as the high point. I don’t think Prince Harry’s royal wedding will have the same sense of regalness and grandeur and nationalist pride inducing feeling. I envision a wedding that will be more like the British version of the movie “The Hangover.”

  30. @ Crossbat11/Nick H

    “I was amused to read your references to “Dubya” (aka George Bush) in some of your recent posts and, on being reminded of the great man, I’ve been meaning to ask you this question. Considering old Dubya and his neo-con coterie of close advisers used to call the French “cheese-eating surrender monkeys” because of Chirac’s stance on Iraq, do you think, after the bellicose Sarkozy’s militaristic stand on Libya, that they might now be calling them “freedum-lubbers”?

    Just a thought. lol.”

    Lol. I mean, their whole anti-French shtick was so uncalled for and out of control. Let’s just have a reality check here: The United States would not exist if not for the French. And our power would not be as great if not for the actions of the French.

    To answer your question: I don’t think the French will be given a new name of “freedom lubbers.” And here’s why: the whole point of insulting the French was to denigrate them in order to promote Dubya’s War in Iraq. The whole point was a political one. It’s very similar to how when Richard Clarke (the anti-terrorism expert) came out and criticized the administration, Condo Rice began reffering to him as “Dick Clark.” The administration did this to confuse the public and diminish Clarke’s credentials.

    Now that right wingers are opposed to the Libyan Intervention (or at least split), they are not going to give the French a complimentary new title. There’s no political reason for them to do it.

  31. James Hewitt denies he is Prince harry’s father. Will he get an invite to Harry’s wedding, presuming Harry gets hitched?

    Does the parentage of the 2nd in line to the throne matter anyway? Some new genes ruling over us might be a good thing.

  32. @ Adrian B; DavidB

    I don’t suppose either of you seen this article?

    htt p://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/01/jobcentres-tricking-people-benefit-sanctions

  33. @ Nick Poole

    “James Hewitt denies he is Prince harry’s father. Will he get an invite to Harry’s wedding, presuming Harry gets hitched?

    Does the parentage of the 2nd in line to the throne matter anyway? Some new genes ruling over us might be a good thing.”

    You know it’s interesting you bring this up because I recently did some research on the legal recognition of artificial insemination. There was a time when the concept of artificial insemination in married couples was a very controversial topic with a lot of religious opposition and legal opposition (back in the 40’s, 50’s, and 60’s). Courts did not look favorably upon the practice and often viewed the practice as a type of adultery and would often do things like label the children illegitimate or “bastards”, deny visitation rights to non-biological parents, grant divorces on demand. I read some really dreadful cases from England, Canada, and the midwestern U.S. that acted this way.

    The legal opposition to the practice revolved around the notion that artificial insemination introduced a bad and faulty blood into the family bloodline and lineage. Hence, many courts saw it as the equivalent of adultery. What’s fascinating is though is that those legal notions stemmed from the whole English law concept of keeping the royal bloodline pure. So when you think about some of the rumors about Prince Harry and James Hewitt, it’s amazing to realize just how much those seemingly unique royal protocols once dramatically affected family law.

  34. Very interesting story in the Independant today claiming that Cameron is about to announce a three month delay in the passage of the NHS reforms as a first step to a U turn. It’s being billed as the Lib Dems saving the NHS, and I’ve read elsewhere that Clegg is more concerned with stopping this bill than winning the AV vote as he sees it as the best way to improve Lib Dem support.

    It’s certainly creating tensions within the coalition, with Tory ministers becoming increasingly irked at Lib Dem attempts to pose as the conscience of the coalition. Effectively Clegg is saying that the Tories cannot be trusted but we’ll keep them in line. It’s not an approach that Cameron will like at all, especially when applied to the touchstone NHA issue.

    The big question will be what this might do to polling. Does a U turn lower support through the visible loss of credibility, or does it help by removing a big negative?

  35. I spent many years working in jobcentres as an advisor.

    My approach was to identify what the claimant wanted in terms of work, what was the barrier to getting there and identify a realistic first or next step to get him or her there (as well as some sort of plan for the rest of the journey if poss).

    Sanctions were sticks to persuade them that no action was not an option. Sanctions never ever worked as far persuading slaimants to consider a positive next step. The contrary in fact.

    Starting with sanctions addresses none of the barriers, identifies no goals and doesn’t save much money.

    And you risk alienation and desperate acts against others people’s persons and property.

    So forgetting the moral argument. It doesn’t work. It’s like capital punishment….as a deterrent it is ineffective.

  36. Loved this from Lynne Featherstone’s (Lib Dem MP) blog this morning;

    “Miss – what’s a structural deficit? That’s a question that I was asked recently – and am asked quite often – when I go to schools or meet young people.”

    Children asking MPs ‘what’s a structural deficit’? Most MPs don’t have a clue about it, so I seriously doubt any child would be interested.

    As if.

  37. “Why is everybody so obsessed” (with structural deficit)?

    Not sure who “Coconut man, Moon Heads and Pea” refers to, but:

    “Seems like everybody’s got a price,
    I wonder how they sleep at night.
    When the sale comes first,
    And the truth comes second”

    “Everybody look to their left (yeah)
    Everybody look to their right (ha)
    Can you feel that (yeah)”

    “Ain’t about the (uh) Cha-Ching Cha-Ching.”

    JESSIE J – PRICE TAG LYRICS

  38. Anthony,

    SoS – the Hootsmon’s Sunday sister says it has a new YouGov Scottish poll.

    The only figures it gives are on new nuclear with 52% pro and only 26% anti.

    The ubiquitous Prof. Curtice also pops up to comment on the poll’s 55% pro PR. An odd question in the run up to the AV election.

    I haven’t yet spotted any VI info, but would be astounded if no VI questions were asked.

    Would you have any more info?

  39. aah

    Time for some Maytals lyrics

    Now when it drops on your dirty little head
    Where you gonna go?
    It’s you, you, you
    When it drop on, oh you’re gonna feel it
    What you’re doing is wrong, wrong, wrong

  40. Do you remember the first time?
    I can’t remember a worse time
    Oh but y’know we’ve changed so much since then
    Oh yeah, we’ve grown!
    No, I don’t care what you’re doing
    No, I don’t care if you screw him
    Just as long as you save our economy!

  41. Anthony,

    For election read referendum in my last post.

    And can I add my name to the list of those asking for an edit button!

  42. @ Alec,

    All the kids in my daughter’s reception class are talking about the structural deficit, and it will form the central theme to their class assembley.

    I thought all schools were doing it ….

    :-)

  43. I might be wrong but I don’t think that the new poll is YouGov’s. The name PanelBase is been bandies about

    Poll Alert: Holyrood (Panelbase) http://t.co/IPkeUVR

  44. My daughter hasn’t mentioned the structural deficit. But she was a bit annoyed when she was told she has to keep doing French instead of Geography or History which she is good at and likes doing.

  45. Only 27% of Scots were able to identify Iain Gray when shown a photo of the Labour leader

  46. Has anyone noticed that Labour MP’s and supporters have been far more involved in the AV debate on both sides, than either of the other two main parties. Was this part of the coalition agreement, that there would be a limit on involvement of ministers in the debate ?

  47. Barbarenzero – you’ve already had the voting intention of the Scotland on Sunday poll. They are doing joint polls with the Scotsman, so their questions were on the back of the Scotsman poll earlier in the week.

    Everyone – I have weeded this thread of comments that really don’t reflect an intention to post in the SPIRIT of non-partisanship at all. To give you some pointers – posts that are doing little else but saying how rubbish the policies about a party other than the one you support are not in the spirit of non-partisanship, comments casting negative aspersions about other parties’ morals or motives are not non-partisan. Any comment that starts “This probably isn’t non-partisan…” probably isn’t non-partisan.

    There are a few people who seem to be making no effort at all to post from a non-party partisan perspective.

  48. Anthony, There is another Holyrood poll in the ST: Panelbase… from what I gather they are a face to face polling outfit..

  49. @ Anthony

    Any polls due out on the Referendum any time soon please?

  50. THE GREEN BENCHES
    I might be wrong but I don’t think that the new poll is YouGov’s.

    There may be more than one but SoS state their new nuclear one is YouGov. See http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Scottish-Election-2011-Scots-not.6744989.jp

    In his article featured on the “Politics” page, Prof Curtice states “Just over half (55 per cent) of people in Scotland now back proportional representation (PR)“, but having re-read the article I now realise he only mentions YouGov in passing, leaving the source of his 55% unstated. I find it hard to believe that SoS could afford two separate polls from two separate pollsters, though.

    Only 27% of Scots were able to identify Iain Gray when shown a photo of the Labour leader

    I’m surprised it’s that high. Iain Gray and Ed M don’t look that similar.

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