YouGov’s monthly Welsh poll for ITV Wales is now out. Topline figures with changes from the last poll (which was actually done at the start of this month, so it was just after the Welsh referendum) are as follows:

Constituency: CON 21%(+1), LAB 47%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1), PC 17%(-2)
Regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 45%(nc), LDEM 8%(+3), PC 16%(-2), UKIP 6%(+1)

By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would work out 13 seats for the Conservatives (up 1), 33 seats for Labour (up 7), 5 seats for the Liberal Democrats (down 1) and 9 seats for Plaid (down 6) – thus giving Labour an overall majority.

23 Responses to “Latest YouGov Welsh polling”

  1. Anthony,

    This being a campaign poll is it weighted on LTV?

  2. On these figures I suspect that the Tories would have fewer directly elected members this year – having to rely on the list.

  3. YG’s Wales, if one clicks the link provided by Anthony, is now weighted upon LTV.

  4. Eoin – Yes, but then so was the last one. We switched into campaign mode a bit early for Wales!

  5. When does the latest voting intention table on the front page get updated? The Tory lead of +1 appears to be hanging around despiute at least two more recent polls suggesting otherwise?

  6. Now we (nearly) have a de facto federal UK I think the Australian historic results are worth noting. Basically it is extremely rare for the main Govt (Westminster / Canberra) to hold all of the ‘lesser’ parliaments. In fact, in Australia the second you get in power you start losing the state parliaments.

    If a party is in power in Canberra then people will vote against it on principle. And I think we can see that happening in the UK.

    Why does this happen? Call it a a ‘plague on all your houses’ principle.

  7. Bit slow Anthony, this poll has been out for a few days now.

    It be interesting to see that, in the next 5 weeks as the campaign starts proper, if the Labour lead is still over 25 points, or if the other parties manage to plug that gap.

  8. Jack

    Quite possibly, although of the three areas of the UK that have `state` governments (4 if you include London), the current UK govt historically have small or NO support.

    In NI, the mainland parties(Con, Lab and Lib) simply dont stand for election because of the nature of politics there.

    In Wales, there is a 4th party-Plaid, the seperatists, who represent a welsh language supporting, sometimes independence supporting (albeit a very small percentage of the population) part of the populace, and the tories have never been a major factor in wales….they used to say and to an extent still do say that the labour vote in wales can be counted by the hundred weight.

    In Scotland, the tories have one seat. enough said.

    And when labour was in power, except for 2007 which seems to be to be a specific Tony Blair backlash, they rarely lost elections in Scotland and Wales.

    So im not quite sure the federal comparison stands up totally

  9. > If a party is in power in Canberra then people will vote against it on principle. And I think we can see that happening in the UK.

    I don’t know about Australia, but the German experience is clearly ‘it depends’. If a new federal government comes to power with a realistic programme and goes about it in a consensual way, then the results of state elections are usually dominated by local/regional issues (and hence could go either way).

    If a new federal government comes to power with a populistics and unrealistic programme, struggles to avhieve anything, seeks side issues and goes about its business in a confrontational way, then people will use state elections to protest against the federal government.

    The recent state elections prove the case. Ms Merkel in general works hard on her boring and middle-of-road image. Consequently while the CDU’s results have been mediocre to poor, this can in every single case be easily explained by local circumstances.

    The FDP (her coalition partner) made numerous outrageous claims in the 2009 election campaign, few of which are implementable (and the ones that were made things woerse). They have done very badly in all except one state election since 2009, even where their local leadership is actually quite competent.

    So I would say a federal system forces parties to be more sensible and realistic when campaigning because otherwise they’ll lose the next election which is always close behind.

  10. Concerning the Welsh poll(s), I think we can be quite certain now that Jones can ditch Jones in May.

    But I am not convinced about the other seat projections. Because of the language issue Plaid does not experience uniform swing – most of their swing tends to come from Welsh Wales, while Welsh-speaking Wales and English Wales are more stable (stable high and stable low respectively).

  11. I don’t think Plaid will go as low as 9 seats because Aberconwy (and possibly Llanelli though far less likely) might be the only const seat/s they lose. Maybe they can manage 10-12 seats.

    The tories have been 2nd in enough polls now to declare them the 2nd party in terms of seats however.

  12. Having looked through the constituencies, even on these opinion polls, I cannot see PC losing any constituencies expect maybe Llanelli. The Tories should get Montgomeryshire and possible Brecon from the LDs, but they also have quite a few at risk to Labour (CW&SP for sure, also Preseli, Clwyd West and Cardiff North) that overall they are unlikely to pick up any constituencies.

    Concerning the list seats, don’t forget that Labour constituency gains means the barrier effectively increases, which counts against smaller parties (esp. in the three South Wales regions). With the LD collapsing, PC and Tories should mop up most. But as I cannot see the Tories making up more than one per region compared to Plaid (and any region where they share all will surely split 2-2 and not 3-1), I think Plaid has good chances to end up equal or even ahead of the Tories in seats even if they end up 3-4 % behind.

  13. The tories could do quite well from the lists if they lose Clwyd west, Preseli, Camarthen W and Cardiff North to labour so they could make a net gain of about 2 seats even if their support is roughly the same as 2007.

    I agree that is is tough for labour to get a majority but a lot of the consensus is that Plaid will lose Aberconwy to the tories or labour, they were 4th there at the GE.

  14. Cardiff North wont be lost to Labour. The Lib Dem vote will buffer up the Conservatives and Jonathan Morgan AM is extremely populer amongst everyone here. Hes got a 14.4% majority, its unlikely labour will wipe that away to take the seat. Labour is closing down a lot of schools in Cardiff North and approved a reservior to be sold off in Llanishen. 5,000 parents from the Whitchurch area petitioned to the welsh education minister that he stops his proposals immediately and that was presented by Jonathan Morgan him self. Unlikely labour will take it. Also if you look at Pessli GE election results, the Conservativedid very well there in the election. I dont tink the Tories will loose any seats.

  15. Richard,

    The last two polls have Labour up +15/16% compared to 2007 and the Tories down 1-2%. On these figures both Cardiff North and Preseli would fall. If it happens is another question – while it is clear that Labour will gain big in Wales, to me it doesn’t feel like a landslide (certainly in South Wales I cannot detect much passion for the election), therefore I’d expect a slightly lower share which means these constituencies may be too close to call.

    A Brown,

    Not sure I can follow your comments on Tories and the list. The issue with list seats is that the proportionality of a region is reduced when one party wins too many constituencies.

    If constituency wins are spread out then to win one seat a party needs about 7-8% of the vote, but also differences between the parties of simuilar magnitude (say Tories and PC) will make a difference to seat numbers.

    On the other hand, if one party wins all (or nearly all) constituencies in a region but its share of the list vote is lower than the the number of constituencies it has won out of all seats in the region, then the minimum to gain a (list) seat increases, as does the minimum difference between parties for seats to change. For example if Labour wins all constituencies in SW West with 50% of the vote, then the effective threshold for a list seat is about 10-11%. And if the LDs drop below half the Tory and Plaid vote, both the Tories and Plaid will get two list seats each even if the Tories gain 5%agepoints and Plaid loses 5.

  16. I predict

    Labour: 30
    Plaid: 16
    Cons: 10
    Liberals 4

  17. The uniform swing is of little applicability in Wales as only a few seats are classic Con-Lab marginals. Cardiff North (where I lived for many years) is one of them and it is probably too close to call (in the 2010 UK general election the Con majority was only 194).
    A party that loses a constituency seat often gains a regional one for that area unless its vote drops dramatically, so the total number of seats held by each party hasn’t changed much since 1999 and is unlikely to do so this year.
    On balance, I think that LD & PC will lose a few seats to the benefit of Con & Lab, and that Lab will gain just enough seats to give them an overall majority.

  18. My prediction anyway

    Lab 31
    Con 14
    PC 11
    LD 4

  19. Geraint,

    I really like your prediction – it means a Labour majority will depend on how unhappy Plaid is with Lord Elis Thomas. He’ll surely be reelected, and afaik he wants to continue as presiding officer – thereby handing Labour a majority. But he has his critics and if Plaid force him to quit, I guess Labour (as biggest party, who never had the presiding officer) would have to nominate one of their AMs.

  20. I think that, unless Labour get an absolute majority, it would not want to govern alone. 30 seats would probably mean that Labour will be able to choose it’s coalition partner, but it be interesting to see how hard Plaid and the Lib Dems would push in such circumstances.

    I don’t believe that Plaid would loose that many seats, despite disapointing polls. I think they probably doing marginally better. The Tories, will be disapointed, loosing some of the gains they made in 2007. The Lib Dems will probably have a poor showing.

    I also think that Labour might be at risk in Caerphilly. Ron Davies could very well carry over a lot of personal votes to Plaid, if Labour don’t take him serious enough.

  21. Any idea why Plaid Cymru appear to be losing ground? They’ve polled pretty consistently around the 20-23% mark (usually a point or two ahead of the conservatives) since 2007 but now appear to be losing ground; yet they’ve been popular in government, can reasonably lay claim to many popular One Wales policies, and haven’t been hit by any scandals. Their support is usually pretty solid.

  22. Plaid could get seriously hit if there is a big swing to Labour…. Probably why they’re going at each other hammer & tongs. I suspect the LibDem’s will slump everywhere they don’t have a good ground campaign, but will get wiped out everywhere else.

  23. @Welshguy

    Apart from when Plaid sacked one of their ministers for smoking in a public place….though not a major scandal. Indeed, hardly any Welsh AMs get hit by Scandal. Nick Bourne’s I-pod and attack dossier on Rhodri Morgan (released on Rhodri’s birthday) are probably the biggest.

    Most polls, until this one, have shown Plaid and the Tories neck and neck, or the Tories ahead by 1 pt. It could well be that this poll, for Plaid is rogue.