There are two new GB polls out tonight (plus a Scottish one, but more on that later). A phone poll from ComRes has voting intentions at CON 35%(nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 13%(+1), Others 11%. Changes are from the last ComRes poll conducted by telephone, a month ago.

Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%. Normal caveats aside, the apparent temporary budget boost in YouGov’s polls at the end of the week does not seem to have lasted.

ComRes’s poll also found people thought the government was wrong to commit British forces to Libya by 47% to 43%. This is a somewhat narrower margin than ComRes’s other polls asking about the issue (but very different to YouGov’s polls showing more people in favour). As we’ve seen though, different wording and/or different question order can make a substantial difference on Libya questions, so whether this is meaningful depends on what ComRes actually asked.

Tonight there is also a new TNS-BMRB Scottish poll, showing a large shift towards the SNP and the SNP and Labour neck-and-neck on the regional vote. Topline figures there, with changes from TNS’s previous poll, are:

Holyrood Constituency: CON 15%(+3), LAB 38%(-6), LDEM 7%(-4), SNP 37%(+8)
Holyrood Regional: CON 14%(+3), LAB 35%(-4), LDEM 8%(-2), SNP 35%(+6), Green 5%

A poll with shifts this large should normally be viewed with some scepticism, but in this case the poll brings TNS-BMRB very more in line with the recent ICM and YouGov polls in Scotland, which both showed much smaller Labour leads.

UPDATE: The TNS-BMRB tables reveal they have adopted past vote weighting by recalled 2007 Scottish Constituency vote since their last poll, so the changes since the previous poll are somewhat artificial: it may to some extent be down to the methodological change.


92 Responses to “New YouGov, ComRes and TNS-BMRB polls”

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  1. Interesting polls. It seems like those weekend polls showing Labour’s lead over the Tories slipping may have been outliers. But, the polls show Labour declining in the Scottish MSP polls.

  2. Thanks Barney.

    For anyone wishing to compare the bookies odds in Scotland with the notional 2007 result in each constituency, this is a useful link, although the forecasts are only as good as the methodology adopted:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_09_10_boundaryreport.pdf

    For example, at face value it seems strange that the SNP are being offered at odds as long as 6/4 to win in Mid Fife when they have a notional 9% majority and presumably an incumbent boost to come on top of that. (i.e. You can get a comparable 13/8 on the SNP in Clackmannanshire and Dunblane but there the notional majority is under 3% so more marginal – but if so why such similar odds?) But these comments are coming from a long way south of the border so I stand to be corrected.

  3. @ Eoin

    Two things:

    1. “52% of men think its right to bomb Libya
    35% of women do… [ComR]”

    I think that’s a pretty fascinating poll. I would not have expected a gender gap on this issue. I’m not surprised by polls that show far more public support for the Libya Intervention among Americans than among Brits (and again, how you ask the question makes a big difference) but the sizeable gender gap is unexpected.

    2. “The shadow defence secretary, Jim Murphy, will warn today that Britain should be careful about siding with the rebels. Speaking at the launch of a review Labour’s defence policy, Murphy will say: “The bravery of the Libyan opposition is not in doubt. What is unclear is the motives of some, other than the removal of Gaddafi. As the opposition move westwards across Libya it is crucial that we better understand who they are and their wider ambitions.””

    Maybe he hired you or Amber over the weekend to be one of his legislative aids. :)

  4. Phil

    I agree with what others have said. In this, as in everything else regional patterns vary.

    Believe no predictions on Scottish polls which do not take account of list compensation. They are worthless.

    In one region last time Lab lost three constiuencies. The net effect was LibDem -1 SNP +1

    Overall, Labour need a slight advantage on the regional vote because they will have wasted list votes in and around Glasgow where most of the population lives.

    Cons candidate problems won’t make much difference. Their vote is hard core.

    It must be very close, and too close to have any confidence in any prediction using national vote shares.

    Just because the data and methods are the best you can afford doesn’t make them fit for purpose. It’s unprofessional to present them as if they were.

    In medicine you get struck off for that sort of thing.

    Every Scottish poll is a voodoo poll.

  5. @ Crossbat11

    “On the plus side for the coalition, and I don’t want to be trivial at all here, but they may get a bit of a boost from the Royal Wedding taking place a few days before the local elections and Referendum. Some nice early Spring weather, a day of national celebration and a burgeoning feelgood factor takes shape. Can’t do them any harm, can it?”

    How does that work exactly? I mean a Royal Wedding has no practical purpose to begin with and no effect on anyone. But even if people celebrate a royal wedding en masse (a concept that seems a little bizarre to me), how does that benefit the incumbent government? Does the Prime Minister act as the wedding planner and designer? Will Nigel Lawson bake the wedding cake (from one of his daughter’s recipes)? Will David Laws figure out how to send out invitation on the cheap that are still glamorous? Will Cameron design the wedding dress himself? Will Jeremy Hunt serve as the wedding singer? I’m not saying I don’t believe you, I’m just surprised at the concept.

  6. @ SoCaL

    The royal wedding might provide a feel good factor for the English local elections; here in Scotland, not so much ;-)

  7. @ Amber

    “The royal wedding might provide a feel good factor for the English local elections; here in Scotland, not so much.”

    Lol. I hope I haven’t stirred the pot here by starting a Scottish v. English debate. I can understand getting into a big wedding (there are plenty of Americans who are royal family watchers and treat them in the same way they treat celebrities) but I can’t understand how it would create a feel good factor.

    On another matter, I was curious to get your opinion. What’s the best way to get from London to Edinburgh? Air travel or train travel? I’ve heard that rail travel takes a long time in the UK (it’s unfortunate you don’t have anything like the TGV).

  8. Regarding the international law opinions about Libya

    h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/28/libya-bombing-un-resolution-law

    Here are some extracts from the Guardian reporting:

    Philippe Sands QC, professor of international law at University College London, warned that coalition forces were facing a “major problem” to justify their latest strikes on legal grounds..

    Legal experts said the international coalition may have overstepped what was agreed by the UN resolution sanctioning military action to “take all necessary measures … to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack”.

    Professor Nicholas Grief, director of legal studies at the University of Kent, said it was possible there could be an attempt to bring the matter before the international court of justice.

    But Malcolm Shaw QC, senior fellow at Cambridge University’s Lauterpacht centre for international law, [the professor who was on the Today program this morning] argued the coalition forces were still operating within the bounds of legality.

    “We are into elastic now, and how far can you stretch the resolution?” he said. “When the Russians say you can’t intervene in civil war to assist the rebel side they are right, because that is international law . But the security council resolution trumps that. The resolution does not say protect civilians from attack, but protect them from the threat of attack, so as long as the Libyan government maintains a fighting force and is maintaining a forcible stance then those forces are legitimate targets. The authorisation to use force is clear-cut. The question is how far you go. The answer for me is far down the line.”
    ——————————————————
    Sands & Grief are, of course, correct. The Resolution does not trump any of the pillars of international law. All UNSC resolutions are intended, as far as possible, to be interpreted within the existing framework of international law.

    And it is entirely possible to achieve the aims of UNSC Res 1973 within the existing framework; & to stretch a resolution which is inside the framework, ‘like elastic’ no less, until it is outside of the framework then claim the resolution was intended to trump a guiding principle…. well, really!

    I recommend that anybody with even a modicum of interest in international law reads the Guardian article in full.
    8-)

  9. @SocalLiberal

    There is a (relatively) fast train to Edinburgh from London, takes about 4 hours. The plane trip is an hour but with checking-in etc you’re probably just as fast by train, and much more comfortable. Not sure about prices, though – trains are expensive unless you book well ahead.

  10. @ Aberdeen Cynic

    “There is a (relatively) fast train to Edinburgh from London, takes about 4 hours. The plane trip is an hour but with checking-in etc you’re probably just as fast by train, and much more comfortable. Not sure about prices, though – trains are expensive unless you book well ahead.”

    Thanks. I had heard about a 4 hour train. That’s not bad. For a flight, you’ve got check-in time, security time, waiting for take off and landing, waiting at baggage claim, and then the time spent in cabs to and from the airport from the city (airports are distant, train stations are usually centrally located). Sometimes taking a train is a better option than a plane (the times I’ve taken a train instead of a plane, I’ve found the train far less expensive).

  11. @SoCal Liberal

    “airports are distant, train stations are usually centrally located”

    Spot on with Edinburgh, and the cabs are expensive! Take the train and feel green ;)

  12. @ Aberdeen Cynic

    “Spot on with Edinburgh, and the cabs are expensive! Take the train and feel green”

    Yeah, taking the train always feels green. I’ve taken the train before in Europe (usually the main way of getting around) and I always enjoyed it. I think the decision comes down to whether a train time exceeds a flight time even when accounting for all the additional add-ons of air travel. Thanks for the help.

  13. @ Aberdeen Cynic

    You know I never thought I’d say this but looking at the websites of both Eurostar and the National Rail Company….AMTRAK is a lot more user friendly (the times I’ve had to travel between New York and D.C. or New York and Boston, I’ve taken the train and never a plane). I’m kinda surprised considering the importance of trains in Europe.

  14. SoCal,

    The gender gap has been consistent. Men enjoy the bombing malarky, our women less so.

    I havn’t had a chance to check US polls crossbreaks… are American women trigger happy?

  15. To answer SWebb from earlier, no of course I’m not linking Labour with the violence, nor are voters consciously either. I was on the march & was going past Fortnum & Mason when UK Uncut invaded it; the result was that the main march was blocked for quite a time. A large number of marchers booed the direct action people. I am known here as a Labour activist. I merely pointed out that on each of the 3 main occasions that there has been violent disorder on an anti-Coalition protest, the immediate aftermath has been a rise for Labour in the polls.Naturally I regard such violence as pointless & wrong, as of course does the Labour Party.

  16. @SocalLiberal

    “How does that work exactly? I mean a Royal Wedding has no practical purpose to begin with and no effect on anyone.”

    It’s all to do with the illogicality of voting behaviour. I’m not saying it will be a factor in the local elections but that it might play a part. It’s why incumbent governments like to go to the polls in Spring or early summer. Longer evenings, warmer weather, times of optimism and burgeoning hope. If we assume that a lot of the electorate are now politically unaligned, or non-tribal, then these factors can play a part and, usually, favour the incumbent government and the general desire to maintain the status quo. Logical? Of course not, but voters behave in strange ways sometimes and can be seduced by feelgood-generating national events. Why do you think Cameron is holding a street party in Downing Street on the day of the Royal Wedding?

  17. @SoCalLiberal,

    Check out www. thetrainline.com. It’s reasonably user friendly.

    Aberdeencynic is quite right, though, early booking is very very important. The train companies release tickets in “tranches”, with the earliest tranche being the cheapest by far. I don’t think you can book any earlier than 3 months ahead, but I would recommend booking it at the earliest possible opportunity.

    Also two singles are often cheaper than a return. We have a wierd system for trains.

    As for the Royal Wedding, it’s partly a question of “feelgood factor”, and partly about news agenda. At the moment the government can’t (because it has no money) generate any really positive headlines, so by definition all domestic political stories tend to benefit the opposition. The Royal Wedding is likely to dominate reporting on the TV and in the papers (bar a disaster) so, like Libya, will keep at bay the conveyer belt of talking heads repeating the “Tory Cuts” message.

  18. After the extra-ordinary pro-Government coverage of the march in which the “no alternative” message was hammered home with no rebuttal for hours and hours, the Labour lead is pretty robust.

    I think voters have spotted the media bias and are ignoring it. They understand Keynes, even if only instinctively, and can tell that dismantling the social infrastructure of the UK is a recipe for disaster.

    The cuts really start next month and that may well be all she wrote for the coalition. People expect libraries and local care and they don’t want social unrest.

    Even the police are no longer “on message”.

  19. @Barnaby Marder – “…. an anti-Coalition protest, the immediate aftermath has been a rise for Labour in the polls.”

    A cleric on Thought for the Day said that she watched for four hours as the protest passed her church. She saw one masked group of about 40 dressed in black who were spaying buildings with the “A” symbol associated with anachism.

    Massive media concentration on these tactics and the separate UK Uncut direct action failed to diminish the impact of the March for the Alternative.

  20. I’m not convinced that the Royal Wedding will create a “feel good” factor.

    I think the mood music in the country is not currently attuned to an expensive display of royal separateness.

    I think , in fact, that the event could adversely impact Cons, with whom it might be associated more readily than other parties.

    Perhaps the thing which might “save” it , ironically, is an attack of some sort by the masked middle class anarcho-envy brigade .

    It’s a funny old world :-)

  21. @ SoCalLiberal

    Let the train take the strain. Good and (fairly fast) trains from London King’s Cross to Edinburgh.

    Book in advance (as long as you know what time you will be travelling) for cheap fares, otherwise you will pay an astronomical amount.

    Use thetrainline.com, not National Rail.

    If you have time, stop off in York (quaint town and stunning medieval cathedral, if you’re into that kind of thing)
    h ttp://gouk.about.com/od/picturegalleries/ig/Top-UK-Sights/Yorkminster.htm

    Enjoy!

  22. @ Nick Poole

    “After the extra-ordinary pro-Government coverage”

    I had to laugh when I saw this. The BBC’s coverage was resolutely positive and it is a totally fair question to ask: “If you are marching for the alternative, what is the alternative?”. Many, many people were give the chance to speak to camera to say what “the alternative” was.

    Meanwhile, on BBC Breakfast, they invited two pupils (not “students”) plus the Principal of Newham College to criticise the EMA replacement without anyone there to rebut their criticisms, the presenter doing a fairly lame job of pretending to do so. They entirely failed to mention that the Principal was Eddie Playfair, a member of the Socialist Education Association, and so had a vested interest.

    If anything, the BBC is guilty of always giving massively high prominence to stores of “cuts could mean this” or “cuts could lead to that” without putting the stories in the context of the many vested interest groups who produce the cuts scare stories.

  23. I think we’ll have to see the effects of the cuts before making judgements about “cuts leading to this or that”. I have seen lists, they range from a few that seem quite sensible, to those that seem dangerous, or quite bonkers.

    No doubt the sensible ones will receive the least coverage.

  24. “”GDP growth contracted by 0.5 per cent in the latest quarter, revised from a fall of 0.6 per cent previously published. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010 is now 1.5 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009.

    Output of the production industries was revised up to 0.8 per cent in the latest quarter. Within production, manufacturing output increased by 1.1 per cent, utilities output rose by 4.3 per cent while mining and quarrying output fell by 4.1 per cent.

    Construction output fell by 2.3 per cent compared with growth of 3.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

    Output in the service industries fell by 0.6 per cent in the latest quarter. The decrease this quarter was due to business services and finance falling by 0.8 per cent; transport, storage and communications services falling by 1.7 per cent and distribution, hotels and catering industries decreasing by 0.2 per cent over the quarter. Government and other services fell by 0.1 per cent.

    Household expenditure fell 0.3 per cent and is now 0.2 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009”

    ONS.

  25. On the subject of spring bringing a mood of optimism, I seem to remember long hot summer nights in the eighties leading to open revolt.

  26. I think it doesn’t go down well for the Coalition to tell Arab dictators that they need to listen to the will of their citizens and then turn around and tell the British public you can protest as much as you like but we will still go ahead with the cuts.

  27. @ Liz

    I think it doesn’t go down well for the Coalition to tell Arab dictators that they need to listen to the will of their citizens and then turn around and tell the British public you can protest as much as you like but we will still go ahead with the cuts
    _________________________________________

    Except the majority agree cuts are necessary. A minority feel it is too fast and too deep, but in Democracies we listen to the majority.

    Personally I am in the 29% that feel the cuts are not enough.

    Bring em on I say.

  28. @John Fletcher

    “Personally I am in the 29% that feel the cuts are not enough. Bring em on I say.”

    Care to explain why such asinine comments are of relevance to the discussion of polling and polling results?

  29. Oh John….

    It’s 4% that think the cuts do not go far enough.

    And it’s a majority not a minority that think the cuts should not be happening at the speed that they are i.e. they are either too fast and too deep or should not be made or taxes should be increased instead.

  30. @John Fletcher

    The majority feel there needs to be some cuts but they are being borne by the ones who can least afford it. I think that message has been given by the majority loud and clear. But the Coalition is not listening.

  31. The other problem with the cuts is that some cuts are wiser than others, I think many people are uncomfortable with police cuts, particularly where policemen are taken off the beat to do backoffice jobs, then there’s the defence cuts. I would be surprised if all the 4% or 29% who want more cuts, want more police and defence cuts too.

  32. LIZ

    I think you will find that the “the will of their citizens ” in the Arab Spring is the right to protest peacefully, without being shot by the government-a right so visibly excercised in UK last weekend.

  33. Interesting to see the SNP who when the last TNS poll came out and criticised it because it wasnt showing their support high enough are now welcoming this poll?

  34. @Colin

    “I think you will find that the “the will of their citizens ” in the Arab Spring is the right to protest peacefully, without being shot by the government-a right so visibly excercised in UK last weekend.”

    I think they would probably also want to be able to protest without the threat of arbitrary restriction on movement or arbitrary arrest, as very clearly denied to peaceful protesters at Fortnum and Mason (see film footage on Guardian website)

  35. One way o look at it is to say that high Labour constituecy majorities in the West mean that they have to be ahead of the SNP to be equal in seats but since the rest of Scotland includes some big LibDem majorities it is not certain how the seats are distributed elsewhere.

    Previously the SNP made more efficient use of its list votes, so that’s an comforting sign for the SNP.

    Any poll which does not deal region by region with compensation and other factors such as retiring Highland LibDem incumbents with huge personal votes is useless as a seat predictor.

    There are three things you can take from this poll.

    The LibDems are doing badly (we knew that).

    It’s very close (We knew that too)

    The Green vote in not far out.

  36. For anyone interested the first Scottish leaders debate is on STV tonight at 2100. This can be viewed live on the STV website for anyone who can’t get it through their TVs.

  37. Robin

    “I think they would probably also want to be able to protest without the threat of arbitrary restriction on movement or arbitrary arrest, as very clearly denied to peaceful protesters at Fortnum and Mason (see film footage on Guardian website)”

    Isn’t Fortnum & Mason owned by someone-I mean it’s not a public place is it?

    Complaining about “restriction on movement” in a store full of people trying to shop seems a bit rich to me.

    But then-I didn’t realise until I heard Theresa May in HoC that the police don’t have the powers to remove face coverings from the yobs trashing posh hotels & ATMs.

    I would bet considerable money, that if wander down to my local high street & try to break open a LLoyds ATM with an iron bar, the boys in blue will appear in numerous BMWs before you could say Human Rights.

    So-whilst arabs are giving their lives for freedom of expression & assembly you are complaining that you can’t even cause trouble in Fortnum & Masons without being “restricted”.

    Jeez.

  38. Further evidence tonight of Iain Grays desperate attempts for popularity (STV)

    Alex Salmond is Scottish voters’ top choice for First Minister – with Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray trailing in third place, a poll conducted for STV shows.

    As the party leaders prepare to go head to head in the first television debate, the survey of 1028 adults shows the SNP leader clearly out in front.

    In all, 30% of those polled saying Mr Salmond would make the best First Minister for Scotland. Scottish Conservatives leader Annabel Goldie took second place, polling at 9%, with Iain Gray, leader of Scottish Labour, coming in third at 7%.

    Trailing behind the others was Tavish Scott, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, with support from just 2% of voters. A further 37% of those polled did not know who would be the best to lead Scotland, while 16% said none of the candidates were up to the job.

    The news comes after the same poll put Labour one point ahead of the SNP in voting intention for constituency MSPs – 38% to 37% – and saw the two parties tied for the regional vote at 35%.

    The SNP’s deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon welcomed the poll, which she said put Salmond “head and shoulders above all of the other party leaders”.

    She added: “This is a fantastic poll for the SNP – coming just the day after a poll that showed this election is neck-and-neck it’s really good news. Alex Salmond has demonstrated over the past four years that he’s got the drive and determination needed in the job. He’s got the personality and charisma to get things done. He’s somebody who stands up for Scotland.”

    Meanwhile Tory campaign leader David McLetchie was pleased with Miss Goldie’s performance.

    He said: “Annabel’s no-nonsense, common-sense approach strikes a chord with voters. Scotland wants, and needs, leaders prepared to stand up and tell it like it is.”

    The survey, by researchers from Edinburgh-based TNS-BRMB, included voters from 55 constituencies, weighted to match population profile estimates in order to ensure it was representative of Scotland’s adult

  39. Alex Salmond has had the benefit of 21 years as the leader of the SNP albeit with a 4 year gap. He has also been First Minister for 4 years, thus giving him a huge advantage over Iain Gray who has been Labour leader for a mere 2 and a half years. Although this poll shouldn’t be ignored I don’t think that this should be too much of a worry for Gray. He has an opportunity to make himself known to the public tonight and the fact is whatever his personal rating may be he is still set to become first minister with every recent poll released.

  40. Well here is my take on tonight’s debate.

    Alex Salmond 8/10 – Once again he was very confident (perhaps a little smug) and answered the questions well and I have to admit that he was more positive than I am used to. The clear winner in this debate tonight.

    Annabel Goldie 6/10 – She also did well and spoke positively of her record in supporting positive parts of previous budgets. This will certainly be the tories’ core message in this campaign and she got that message out clear and concise.

    Iain Grey 3/10 – This was his big chance to get a positive message across to the voters who are more sceptical of him than they are of his party. He hasn’t been helped with his U turn on the graduate endowment and the council tax freeze. He will have to do better in the future debates or he alone will be the reason labour lose this election from a position that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago.

    Tavish Scott 2/10 – He wants free education in Scotland while his leader the deputy PM is part of a government who has just broken a promise to English voters. He will need to qualify this position. However I don’t believe that anything Mr Scott says will help the Lib Dems from electoral oblivion in May.

  41. @ Eoin

    “The gender gap has been consistent. Men enjoy the bombing malarky, our women less so.

    I havn’t had a chance to check US polls crossbreaks… are American women trigger happy?”

    No. I think Americans tend to be a little more trigger happy in general, regardless of gender. Brits tend to be more circumspect.

    @ Robert C

    “Let the train take the strain. Good and (fairly fast) trains from London King’s Cross to Edinburgh.

    Book in advance (as long as you know what time you will be travelling) for cheap fares, otherwise you will pay an astronomical amount.

    Use thetrainline.com, not National Rail.

    If you have time, stop off in York (quaint town and stunning medieval cathedral, if you’re into that kind of thing)
    h ttp://gouk.about.com/od/picturegalleries/ig/Top-UK-Sights/Yorkminster.htm

    Enjoy!”

    Thank you. I appreciate the advice.

    @ Neil A

    “Check out www. thetrainline.com. It’s reasonably user friendly.

    Aberdeencynic is quite right, though, early booking is very very important. The train companies release tickets in “tranches”, with the earliest tranche being the cheapest by far. I don’t think you can book any earlier than 3 months ahead, but I would recommend booking it at the earliest possible opportunity.

    Also two singles are often cheaper than a return. We have a wierd system for trains.”

    See with Amtrak, I think you can book up to 18 months in advance. I like to book early though, it’s better. Less stress.

    “As for the Royal Wedding, it’s partly a question of “feelgood factor”, and partly about news agenda. At the moment the government can’t (because it has no money) generate any really positive headlines, so by definition all domestic political stories tend to benefit the opposition. The Royal Wedding is likely to dominate reporting on the TV and in the papers (bar a disaster) so, like Libya, will keep at bay the conveyer belt of talking heads repeating the “Tory Cuts” message.

    That makes some sense. Though the thing is, anything that is positive from Libya is something that had some connection to the government and actions by the government. With Libya, you might say “Attaboy Cameron!” and be inclined to vote Tory. With the royal wedding, it’s a nice event but it’s not related to anything the government had anything to do with.

    @ Crossbat11

    “It’s all to do with the illogicality of voting behaviour. I’m not saying it will be a factor in the local elections but that it might play a part. It’s why incumbent governments like to go to the polls in Spring or early summer. Longer evenings, warmer weather, times of optimism and burgeoning hope. If we assume that a lot of the electorate are now politically unaligned, or non-tribal, then these factors can play a part and, usually, favour the incumbent government and the general desire to maintain the status quo. Logical? Of course not, but voters behave in strange ways sometimes and can be seduced by feelgood-generating national events. Why do you think Cameron is holding a street party in Downing Street on the day of the Royal Wedding?”

    That makes some sense. I’ve been watching the PMQs on youtube and there have been times when Cameron talks about street parties around the country to celebrate the wedding. That’s a strange concept to me. As Jon Stewart would say “don’t people have sh*t to do?” I hope I don’t come off as insensitive here to British (or as Amber points out really English) tradition. In any case, your explanation makes sense. People feel good about the country when there’s a royal wedding and if they’re feeling more positive about the country and they’re unaligned voters, they’re more likely to vote for the incumbent government (in this case the Tories).

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