There are two new GB polls out tonight (plus a Scottish one, but more on that later). A phone poll from ComRes has voting intentions at CON 35%(nc), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 13%(+1), Others 11%. Changes are from the last ComRes poll conducted by telephone, a month ago.
Meanwhile YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%. Normal caveats aside, the apparent temporary budget boost in YouGov’s polls at the end of the week does not seem to have lasted.
ComRes’s poll also found people thought the government was wrong to commit British forces to Libya by 47% to 43%. This is a somewhat narrower margin than ComRes’s other polls asking about the issue (but very different to YouGov’s polls showing more people in favour). As we’ve seen though, different wording and/or different question order can make a substantial difference on Libya questions, so whether this is meaningful depends on what ComRes actually asked.
Tonight there is also a new TNS-BMRB Scottish poll, showing a large shift towards the SNP and the SNP and Labour neck-and-neck on the regional vote. Topline figures there, with changes from TNS’s previous poll, are:
Holyrood Constituency: CON 15%(+3), LAB 38%(-6), LDEM 7%(-4), SNP 37%(+8)
Holyrood Regional: CON 14%(+3), LAB 35%(-4), LDEM 8%(-2), SNP 35%(+6), Green 5%
A poll with shifts this large should normally be viewed with some scepticism, but in this case the poll brings TNS-BMRB very more in line with the recent ICM and YouGov polls in Scotland, which both showed much smaller Labour leads.
UPDATE: The TNS-BMRB tables reveal they have adopted past vote weighting by recalled 2007 Scottish Constituency vote since their last poll, so the changes since the previous poll are somewhat artificial: it may to some extent be down to the methodological change.