ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian, conducted after this week’s budget, has the Conservatives back ahead – CON 37%(+2), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 16%(-2). Changes are from their February poll.

Full report to follow shortly

UPDATE: Proper post now up here

6 Responses to “Post-budget ICM poll has Conservatives back in the lead”

  1. A bit shocking for Labour supporters that 53% are supporting the coalition parties as far as this poll is concerned. Obviously it could be a rogue. We shall see when the next polls come out.

  2. Andy JS

    Con (+2) + LD (-2) = Coalition (no change)

  3. @ Andy JS

    It’s not shocking at all.

    It is to be expected when Labour are agreeing with government instead of opposing.

    I am not in the least surprised & – unless there is much better news for Labour from the Sunday polls – I hope Labour’s stategy team take note of this ICM poll.

  4. Using these figures and modelling for AV Electoral Calculus gives:

    CON 273
    LAB 304
    LDM 48
    NAT 07
    OTH 00

    Under FPTP the figures are

    CON 286
    LAB 309
    LDM 28
    NAT 09
    OTH 00

    They don’t model yet the 600 seat HOC as boundaries have not been settled.

    They were the closest predictors of the 2010 GE…..

    As I said earlier this week: let’s see what the You Gov poll next Wednesday says (or any poll from then onwards for that matter).

    Budgets tends to have an small immediate positive impact- before falling away to trend as either the facts of life rudely intervene again or the nasty concealed surprises- pace Brown- are unravelled.



    is another reason (and one I have been pointing out to UKPRers for months)- along with the fact that there is only one national centre left party now- as to why matters are already quite serious electorally for Cameron (et al).

    When you pick a fight with almost every section and social group in the country you store up a lot of dissatisfaction that- when it’s been a factor for years not just months- tends to stick…

    We rightly support masses of people protesting (and fighting) against their zealous and domineering leaders who seem deaf to ordinary peoples wishes.

    We’ll see a couple of hundred thousand on our own streets tomorrow from all walks of life.

  5. @ Rob Sheffield

    So your saying that the people on the march tomorrow are not politically bias in any way when you know as well as i, that all the people on the march probably support, or are apart, of labour voting unions.

  6. A ComRes/ ITV News poll shows that two thirds of the public feel that the Government should reconsider its cuts programme

    Following Chancellor George Osborne’s Budget statement earlier this week, the latest Cuts Index conducted by ComRes and to be broadcast on ITV News at Ten, shows that two thirds (64%) of the public agree that the Government should reconsider its planned spending cuts programme. Just one in five (20%) disagree.

    Since the Cuts Index began, the number of people who agree that the coalition Government is cutting public spending too much and too quickly has risen from 45% last October to 58% this week.

    Moreover, nearly three quarters of the public (71%) think that Chancellor George Osborne should have done more to help tackle rising fuel prices. 16% disagree and 13% don’t know.

    Asked if Osborne was right to describe Wednesday’s Budget as a ‘Budget for growth’, only one in four (26%) agree. Nearly half disagree (44%) with 31% of people unsure. 44% of people believe that the state of the UK economy will get worse in the coming months, while 34% believe there will be no change following the budget statement.

    Finally, more than half of the population (51%) thinks that their personal financial situation will worsen over the next six months. Just 22% are optimistic that it will improve.