Somewhat strange timing, given the political news is going to be budget-budget-budget tonight, but there is a new ComRes poll of London mayoral voting intentions out. First preferences apparently show Ken on 46%, Boris on 44%, with second preferences re-allocated Ken remains ahead on 51% to Boris’s 49%.

Westminster voting intention in London is meanwhile CON 31% (down 4 from the general election), LAB 48% (up 11), LDEM 9% (down 13). These are broadly in line with the sort of changes we are seeing in the national polls.

When ComRes last measured London mayoral voting intentions in October they found Boris ahead of Ken by 44% to 35%, so this is a significant change in the picture.

The only other polling of the London race we have is from YouGov, which has a pretty similar picture to this latest ComRes poll – the last YouGov London poll had Ken 2 points ahead on first preferences, but Boris marginally ahead in a forced choice question. Essentially both pollsters have the race neck and neck at present.

15 Responses to “ComRes London poll has Ken nudging ahead”

  1. T’would be nice if it was true.

    Boris is Question Time tomorrow night, I think. That should be interesting.

  2. Yes it is rather odd timing. I suspect that if the Tories are more than about 8-9% behind Labour nationally at the time of the Mayoral election, Boris will find it difficult to run as far ahead of his party as he will need to be to win, as Ken found at the last election. Labour will tend to concentrate on Boris’s policies rather than his personality and try and associate him with his party nationally. But there’s no doubt that he has become a plus for the Tories in London and the Mayoralty at the moment looks a hard nut to crack. Labour gains in the Assembly election however look near-certain right now.

  3. It’s possible that Boris could still scrape through in the end, it will certainly go down to the wire.

    Striking how low LD core support is in London.

  4. Given this is mid term for Boris still, and the party isnt doing as well as it could in the polls, he is doing fantastically well. Seems unlikely he will lose from here tbh.

  5. Center-left advantage in capitals and major urban centers of Europe is more and more pronounced. In 2010-2011, center-right lost Athens, Thessaloniki, Bratislava and Vilnius (Athens and Thessaloniki to a coalition of socialists, greens, democratic left and libertarians, Bratislava to the social democrats and Vilnius to independent liberals), whilst the opposite change occurred only in Budapest/ Warsaw remained center-right (PO). After these results, center-left administrates the following European capitals: Amsterdam, Andorra la Vella, Athens, Belgrade, Berlin, Berne, Bucharest, Bratislava, Brussels, Copenhagen, Dublin, Lisbon, Nicosia, Paris, Podgorica, Riga, San Marino City, Sarajevo, Tallinn, Tirana, Vienna and Zagreb (22). Center-right: Ankara, Budapest, Cisinau, Helsinki, Kiev, La Valetta, London, Luxembourg City, Madrid, Prague, Rome, Skopje, Sofia, Stockholm and Warsaw (15). Independents: Ljubljana, Reykjavik, Vilnius (3).

  6. A completely non-political observation here but why is it, as in Anthony’s commentary on this thread, that when we refer to Livingstone and Johnson, we always refer to them as Ken and Boris? I don’t think I can think of any other politicians in my lifetime who regularly transcended the use of their surnames. Alright, Mrs Thatcher became known as Maggie, but this was more a brand title than a genuine use of a Christian name, so what is it with this Ken and Boris thing? I don’t recall Frank Dobson becoming plain old Frank when he ran for Mayor or Paddick becoming Andrew. Very strange.

    It’s a bit like tennis players, uniquely, becoming Andys, Tims, Rogers and Rafas. Yet go to a sport like football, it’s always Rooney, Lampard, Terry et al. Give me the football custom any day, and I’ll be sticking to Miliband, Cameron and Clegg in politics too!

    Ken and Boris? Far too matey and cosy for me.

    Sorry for the temporary dip into trivia, by the way!!

  7. As an LD I despair at the thought of the Mayoral election. I dislike Johnson intensely and don’t think much of the spendthrift lefty Livingstone either. I don’t like his pandering to homophobic muslim clerics and any other special interest group he can suck up to – Bob Crow, euggh!). Unfortunately, we have never had a good candidate for this election and we are still desperate to fend off Lembit Opik. London is very polarised and this election just underlines that.

    All in all a dreadful prospect.

  8. I think someone like Caroline Pidgeon would probably be the most sensible candidate the lib dems could field.

  9. @Robert C

    Simon Hughes was our best candidate.

    By the way, I really liked Ken as Mayor. His bus policy and regeneration of the South Bank as well as the pedestrianisation of the National.Gallery.part of Trafalgar Sq was some legacy.

    Then you have Oyster and free entry to museums.

    Boris hasn’t really done anything at all, excepy scale back some of Ken’s ideas. Oh and write a £500,000 cheque to.Porche. Oh and bring back Routemasters. What a fantastic use of public money that is!

  10. Personally I’d like Sarah Teather to run for Mayor. Time for a woman to take charge. She’s got a good campaigning record plus integrity.

  11. Caroline Pidgeon has said she’s not interested in running for mayor – and why should she? The voting system makes sure that, even in a good year for the Lib Dems, it’s almost impossible to win and takes over the candidate’s whole life.

    We have enough trouble finding enough loonies to give up their lives on a part-time basis to fly the flag in unwinnable or poor-prospect parliamentary seats. All that plus the media spotlight in an election 73 times the size is most unappealing

    On the other hand, Dominic Carman (Barking GE candidate and Barnsley by-election candidate) has thrown his hat in the ring today.

  12. Ken beat Boris on share of second preferences last election – if it was first preferences alone it’d have been a decisive victory for Boris. If Ken’s closed that fairly large gap on first preferences, and is even in the lead, then it suggests that Ken’s set to win. Good stuff. Ken’s a Labour politician I still find myself agreeing with, which is a rare thing these days.

  13. “The voting system makes sure that, even in a good year for the Lib Dems, it’s almost impossible to win and takes over the candidate’s whole life.”

    The problem for the Lib Dems isn’t so much the voting system, as the fact that the votes are counted. That’s what leaves them far behind the other 2 parties.

  14. I’ve done some maths on the parliamentary poll for London, an estimate that this would result in the following seats for each party:

    C: 20 (-8)
    L: 50 (+12)
    LD: 3 (-4)

    I’ve posted more details, including illustrative maps, here:

    The usual caveat (the next election won’t be fought on these boundaries) of course applies.