Apart from London, where there are mayoral elections to poll and a regional newspaper with some cash behind it to commission them, regional voting intention polls are a pretty rare creature. However, today we have a poll of the South West from MarketingMeans.

Voting intention in the South West (with changes from the vote shares in 2010) currently stands at CON 39%(-4), LAB 29%(+14), LDEM 18%(-17), UKIP 6%(+1), GRN 6%(+5).

The pattern is broadly the same as the country as a whole, with Liberal Democrat support collapsing towards Labour. With a drop of 17 points the Lib Dem drop is larger than in national polls… but the Lib Dems had more support here to start with. Also noteworthy is the significant boost for the Greens, who also seem to have benefitted from the Lib Dem drop.

In the 2010 and past elections the South West has largely been a battle between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats – Labour have very little support outside of the Bristol area, Plymouth, Exeter and Swindon. As a result if these figures were repeated at a general election the Conservatives would benefit almost as much as Labour, despite their own support dropping.

On a uniform swing, on a brief glance it looks to me as though Labour would gain 10 seats, but the Conservatives would gain 9. Only three Liberal Democrat seats in the South West would be held – Thornbury and Yate, Bath and Yeovil (of course, in practice there will probably be boundary changes anyway before the election and we don’t know to what extent the personal votes of sitting Liberal Democrat MPs will be enough to protect them from a collapse in their party’s support.)

Later tonight there may (or may not) be the monthly ICM poll for the Guardian. I am at a meeting, so will update on my return.

54 Responses to “New poll of South West England”

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  1. @ Edward Carlsson Browne

    I thought that as well but maybe it just means LD support is more tactical in the SW than anyone thought. Whereas the lib dems are at least picking up a few tory voters in the SE to offset any lost ones.

    Re Yeovil Labour got nearly 15% in 2001 compared with 5.2 at the GE so it will be interesting to see what happens there.

    Its probably not as straightforward to say lib dems losing more support in areas where they are strongest
    because that ignores personal votes like in Westmorland and Lonsdale.

  2. @Barnaby

    Sorry..I stand corrected you’re right about Yeovil… I think I was meaning Taunton.. It must be the shock of the poll figures!

  3. We would welcome more Liberal Party candiadtes standing on an anti- Colaition Cuts patform throughout the south west wheer Liberalism was always a radical force

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