YouGov’s monthly(ish) Welsh poll for ITV Wales is out. It was conducted after the results of the Welsh referendum were known. Topline figures with changes from last month are:
Constituency: CON 20%(-1), LAB 48%(+3), LDEM 7%(nc), Plaid 19%(-2)
Regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 5%(-3), Plaid 18%(-3), UKIP 5%(+1), Green 4%(+2).
I’ll add all my normal caveats about being cautious about a single poll showing movement, but there appears to have been a slight shift towards Labour since the referendum. On a uniform swing, my projection is that it would be enough to give Labour an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly, producing 33 seats for Labour, 14 for the Conservatives, 10 for Plaid and 3 for the Liberal Democrats.
Also notice the Liberal Democrats way down on just five in the regional vote, compared to 12% at the last Welsh Assembly election. On that level of support they probably wouldn’t get any regional seats at all, they avoid wipe-out because of some safe constituency seats. UKIP will probably be happy to see themselves equal to the Lib Dems in the regional vote, though it wouldn’t give them any seats (though not far off – if they get to 6% then on a uniform swing here’s a chance UKIP could get a regional seat in South Wales East)