YouGov’s monthly(ish) Welsh poll for ITV Wales is out. It was conducted after the results of the Welsh referendum were known. Topline figures with changes from last month are:

Constituency: CON 20%(-1), LAB 48%(+3), LDEM 7%(nc), Plaid 19%(-2)
Regional: CON 20%(nc), LAB 45%(+4), LDEM 5%(-3), Plaid 18%(-3), UKIP 5%(+1), Green 4%(+2).

I’ll add all my normal caveats about being cautious about a single poll showing movement, but there appears to have been a slight shift towards Labour since the referendum. On a uniform swing, my projection is that it would be enough to give Labour an overall majority in the Welsh Assembly, producing 33 seats for Labour, 14 for the Conservatives, 10 for Plaid and 3 for the Liberal Democrats.

Also notice the Liberal Democrats way down on just five in the regional vote, compared to 12% at the last Welsh Assembly election. On that level of support they probably wouldn’t get any regional seats at all, they avoid wipe-out because of some safe constituency seats. UKIP will probably be happy to see themselves equal to the Lib Dems in the regional vote, though it wouldn’t give them any seats (though not far off – if they get to 6% then on a uniform swing here’s a chance UKIP could get a regional seat in South Wales East)


71 Responses to “YouGov Wales poll would give Labour a majority”

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  1. In June 2009, blues topped the poll in Wales
    In May 2007, in the last elections before the Right Honourable Tony Blair’s departure, reds got 32% in the constit, and 30% in the regional list.

    A rehabilitation appears to be under way for the red brand in Wales

    In 30 years time we’ll look back on Welsh and Scots voting and reach this conclusion… whoever is in power in the federal parliament in London, lost popularity / votes in the national chambers of Scotland and Wales.

    Scot/Wales voters show a distinct penchant for split ticket voting, the kind that it is also possible to observe when one juxtaposes council elections with national elections;;

  2. David Laws [once cleared] is set to return to the heart of government.

    De jure, LDs are only entitled to 5 Cab posts and it will remain that way, but a sixth post will be created de facto as Laws will have the right to attend cabinet. His job will be to promote a commonality of purpose [at the cab office.]

  3. Anthony, the Greens are on 11% in South Wales Central, well above the threshold to get in. They’re targetting their resources and it’d be daft to bet against them.

  4. James – they might well be, but I wouldn’t pin any hopes on regional cross-breaks. They have small sample sizes and aren’t internally weighted – hence for any projections I always assume a uniform swing across Wales.

    Of course, that doesn’t mean they aren’t successfully targetting it or won’t manage to make a breakthrough there… we just don’t have solid enough evidence to tell.

  5. AW

    I note that Political Betting has been removed from the list of Blogs links.

    Is this an oversight?

  6. Are there any truly safe Lib Dem assembly seats in Wales?
    On the basis of current polls, they’d surely struggle to win any constituencies.

  7. BARNABY JL MARDER

    2007 share of the vote – LD & nearest challenger

    Brecon & Radnorshire – LD 52% : Con 33%
    Cardiff Central – LD 51% : Lab 22%
    Montgomeryshire – LD 39% : Con 30%

    To an outsider, the first two look reasonably safe.

  8. David Laws…once cleared?

    How can he be cleared of something he has already admitted to doing?

  9. Are there full details of how the weighting has been conducted? I can’t see it on the results document:
    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-WelshRegionalVote-100311.pdf

    They seem to have weighted down anyone over 35, and also weighted down those within social grades ABC1, which seems a big hit to the Tories…?

  10. In a Celtic country, if your safe seat is a “shire” the omens are bad. [being mischievous forgive me]

  11. “Are there any truly safe Lib Dem assembly seats in Wales?
    On the basis of current polls, they’d surely struggle to win any constituencies.”

    Brecon & Radnorshire looks pretty safe – Labour and Plaid are well out of it, and – particularly with a high-profile AM – I can’t see a high enough Lib Dem to Con swing for them to lose it.

    The other two both have their AMs standing down, but aren’t all that vulnerable. Cardiff Central has a big majority. It would be a very big win for Labour if they managed it. Montgomeryshire has a much slimmer majority, and must be the most likely loss, although as it would be to the Tories, there’s no guarantee of the necessary swing.

  12. I appreciate they look safe on the Assembly figures, but if a Westminster election were held today they wouldn’t win any at all. The question would be, is there enough differential between voting intentions in the 2 elections to save them?

  13. My gut feel is that the lib dems will hold onto 2 constituencies and 2 list seats. I’m not sure whether Cardiff Central or Montgomery is the more likely loss as uniform swings may not occur.

    There was a derisory turnout in Cardiff Central last time – about 36%.

  14. Cardiff Central hardly looks ‘safe’ on current polls, granted they have a good chance to retain it although it sounds like they’re losing their incumbent which may make it harder.

    Brec + Rad may be safer, as main competition is coalition partners – not sure how hard they’r fighting against LDs in Wales, is it like Westminster elections or no such ‘pact’ here?

    Of course,it wld be easier to make more informed judgements if AW kindly put up the % changes from the last Assembly elections. :)

  15. @A Brown
    “uniform swings may not occur”

    Very true. The LDs polled 15% in the constituencies last time so they are down 8% to 7% on these figures. This means that a uniform swing would be impossible as it would leave them with a negative vote share in quite a few seats. So they’d have to lose more in seats where they start with a significant share in the first place. And so I can’t see there being any safe seats although they’re in with a fighting chance of holding on to those they have.

  16. @oldnat

    Cardiff Central is a Student seat, I am not sure that the Liberal Democrats can depend on student voters anymore.m

    Montgomeryshire went Tory at the 2010 general election, and with the outgoing (he has announced he wont stand for re-election) Lib Dem AM disgaced (assaulting a paramedic), it be interesting to see what effective that might have on the seat.

  17. GERAINT

    Thanks.

    Assuming Montgomeryshire goes Con and Brecon & Radnorshire stays LD, I wonder if there will be enough LD votes in mid & West Wales to give them a List seat.

  18. Another poll looking pretty grim for the LDs – they could conceivably be pushed into sixth place again (behind UKIP, Plaid & Greens) if they slump further nationally and many LDs stay at home.

    Just before Barnsley I said the only shock will come if the LDs get pushed into 5th place – then look what happened.

    Interesting LD internal question – when does it get so bad that they get rid of Clegg? And when does it get so bad that they get out of the coalition? It is conceivable to do the first without doing the second (e.g. bring in Hughes as a much more obviously independent voice).

    But I’ve never bought this argument that if the LDs left the coalition they would get hammered for it. That would only happen if there was an immediate election and they could see that didn’t happen by simply abstaining on a confidence vote.

  19. I guess that the lib dems North Wales and South Wales East list AMs are most vulnerable, Plaid are probably eyeing up those positions to offset any loss of Llanelli and Aberconwy.

  20. B&R used to be a 3-way marginal … will the people of Ystradgynlais (really a S Wales valley area) still vote LibDem to keep the Tory out?

  21. Angus Reid poll on what Americans think the US should do about Libya

    22% believe the US should do nothing
    8% believe an invasion of Libya is warranted
    36% believe economic sanctions
    The rest are DKs.

  22. “Cardiff Central – LD 51% : Lab 22%”

    This looks to me like a very likely LD loss.

    Uniform swing is a very crude way of looking at things, and only works, more or less, at a general election because the errors even out. A better approach is to observe that the LDs have lost approx 50% of their previous vote, apparently mainly those who are left-leaning. Add in an additional effect of the student vote (who probably didn’t vote significantly last time, but might take the opportunity to kick the LDs this time), and I’d say that this points to a result somewhere in the region of

    LD 25% : Lab 50%

    “Brecon & Radnorshire – LD 52% : Con 33%
    Montgomeryshire – LD 39% : Con 30%”

    The other two look touch and go. Montgomeryshire went Tory at the general election, and it’s difficult to see how the LDs can increase their vote against the trend. And who knows how a 2010 vote of 46-37-10 (LD-Con-Lab) might go? Switch 50% of the LD vote to Lab and this becomes a Con-Lab marginal.

  23. Adrian B
    “…when does it get so bad that they get rid of Clegg? And when does it get so bad that they get out of the coalition?”

    Post the May elections, but I imagine NC is already contemplating voluntarily standing down – perhaps on health grounds.

    “But I’ve never bought this argument that if the LDs left the coalition they would get hammered for it. ”

    Nor I. Instead of giving a good impression of being rabbits caught in headlights they should act boldly – IMO. Get rid of NC and leave the coalition asap. The outcome cannot be worse – can it?

  24. @Mike N

    “Nor I. Instead of giving a good impression of being rabbits caught in headlights they should act boldly – IMO. Get rid of NC and leave the coalition asap. The outcome cannot be worse – can it?”

    My guess is that this won’t happen until the fixed term parliament bill passes. Then they can pull the plug on the coalition without the Tories being able to trigger an immediate election.

  25. Robin
    “My guess is that this won’t happen until the fixed term parliament bill passes.”

    Perhaps more pertinently, when is likely to come into force? Can the gov delay laying a commencement order once it has Royal Assent?

  26. Wonder what the impact of the public sector pensions is on polls? Lots of public sector workers getting very upset, but a tough balancing act for Miliband. he knows reform is needed and he knows reform will be very popular with some and hated by others.

    I’ve always thought you can’t isolate issues and need to take a holistic approach to policy making. If someone can combine the necessary reforms to public sector pensions with an aggressive attack on the pension’s industrys terrible value for money as well as deal with the billions of pounds spent in tax relief propping up private pensions for the wealthy, we might have a fair approach to the issue.

    For now, the government wants to attack public sector pensions and retain what are effectively billions of pounds of state subsidy to the banks. If we’re going to spend billions on pensions, I’d rather the bin men had it rather than the bankers, but in reality both need a bit of work done on them.

  27. ITV Wales’s prediction for the Welsh Assembly, based on the poll;

    Labour: 32
    Tories: 13
    Plaid: 11
    Lib Dems 3
    Others: 1

  28. When does campaigning start in terms of election broadcasts? Will it be at the same time as campaigning starts for the AV referendum? Will the AV referendum have high-profile election broadcasts? Will the AV referendum help the Liberal Democrats? If the “Yes” group has a good campaign, I think that it might. (Btw, I’m a Tory leaning towards voting “yes”, though not fully decided.) I live in England but find the elections for the devolved assemblies very interesting.

  29. Mike N – as it currently stands the Fixed Term Parliament Bill is drafted so that it comes into force on the day it is passed.

  30. Just so I understand…

    If the Fixed term bill is passed and the Lib Dems pull out of government, does DC just carry on till 5 years is up, or what?

    How will they get any laws passed?

  31. The Government wants to keep interest rates low to avoid raising the deficit but this keeps returns low for pension funds so you either have to reduce benefits or increase the pension pot thus raising the deficit.
    I think someone last night said Cameron seems to be developing a habit of talking loudly about the big stick he doesn’t have so how this will develop will be interesting.

  32. Nick Poole

    My understanding is that the Commons will then have a similar situation to the Scottish Parliament (they thought it good enough for us, so it should be good enough for them!)

    “It would be possible to trigger an early general election in two circumstances:
    • if a motion of no confidence is agreed by the House of Commons and no alternative
    government can be confirmed by the House within 14 days;
    • if a motion for an early general election is agreed. Where this is on a division of the
    House, the number of Members voting must be equal to or above two-thirds of the total
    number of seats in the House of Commons ”

    (according to a HoC Research Paper)

  33. Nick Poole

    “How will they get any laws passed?”

    Again from the Scottish experience of minority Government –

    Laws to get passed where a majority can be found for a particular bill (in many ways there’s a lot to be said for a situation where a Government can’t just ram through their badly thought out ideas).

    Most of government isn’t about passing laws – it’s about running Departments.

  34. Thank you oldnat

    I think we could have had a minority government from the start. Rule by consensus.

    Might have made me hate the Tories less as they freeze me pay, up my pension contributions, move my retirement date further and further away and give me a smaller pension despite all that.

    When people see their payslips at the end of April they will enjoy voting in the May elections.

  35. ADRIAN B & MIKE N

    Lots of food for thought in your comments – I too have never bought the idea that the LDs wouldn’t break ther coaltion because they’d get hammered at the General election that would follow.

    They could well get credit for curtailing the actions of a very unpopular government whilst offering a degree of maintenance and supply whilst their poll ratings recover.

    All to play for after May 5th and i hope Ed M and his team have built these possibilities into their planning.

  36. Nick Poole

    “up my pension contributions, move my retirement date further and further away and give me a smaller pension despite all that.”

    I think you would have found the same under any Government. You young folk still haven’t learned the reality. My generation took everything we could, and gave us little as possible back.

    But thank you for the generous pensions, reduced taxation, free bus pass ………

    Pity there won’t be any money left for you guys to have the same!

  37. Oldnat/Amber – my bad, you saw nothing!

  38. The thing, it isn’t true. The pensions “time bomb” is just a baby boom blip.

    The real problem is paying ludicrously large pensions to the senior civil service. Cap them at some multiple of the lower paid staff and you are getting home and dry.

    Before this new shift I would have to work till 66 to get a pension of £10,000 nad I could only retire then if I get the state pension too.

    Now it will be less than that AND I’ll have to pay 3% of my salary straightaway for the privilege at the same time that my pay is frozen and inflation is getting all warmed up.

    Think many public servants will forgive that? Assuming they are not sacked?

    Why do you think after the eighties the Tories can’t get a majority?

    Enjoy your last ever stay in Government, blues.

  39. Anthony

    It’s maybe just that we Scots have the second sight!

  40. You can both privately enjoy your secret knowledge for 2 hours ;)

  41. Anthony

    Our lips are sealed!

  42. Amber/oldnat

    Is it worth staying up for?

  43. Nick Poole

    It ‘s, it’s ….. (aargh – he got me!)

  44. Anthony Wells

    “Oldnat/Amber – my bad, you saw nothing!”

    Did you do something bad? ;)

  45. Anthony,

    “Also notice the Liberal Democrats way down… ”

    And if it is looking bad in Wales, just look at these horrific figures for the Scottish Liberal Democrats:

    Latest YouGov/Sun Scottish Westminster VI sub-sample (+/- change from UK GE 2010). Usual sub-sample caveats apply. Sub-sample size = 232

    Westminster voting intention – Scotland

    Lab 45% (+3)
    SNP 21% (+1)
    Con 18% (+1)
    LD 5% (-14)
    oth 11% (+9)

    http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-Sun-results-090311.pdf

  46. Colin – when setting the publication time for a future post, I forgot the backend of this site uses the 24 hour clock!

  47. Ha! Secret knowledge… I’ll not tell either.

  48. @ Nick Poole

    Anthony’s stuff is always worth staying up for. ;-)

    That piece of sucking up aside, I’d still say ‘yes’. But I’m not letting the cat out the bag – no blogging or tweeting or anything – just 2 hours of smug secrecy. :-)

  49. Dammit Amber, now I’ll have to hang around.

  50. Q: Do MPs have their own pension scheme?

    A: Yes they do – a final salary scheme with a choice of accrual rates. Members can choose to contribute at 1/40th, 1/50th or 1/60th. It is a contributory pension with the contribution rates set at 11.9%, 7.9% and 5.9% respectively.

    Okay I agree to pay more for my pension. I’ll have the 1/40th scheme, please.

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