There is a new Scottish poll by TNS-BMRB in the Herald this morning. The topline figures are:

Holyrood Constituency: CON 12%(+3), LAB 44%(-5), LD 11%(+4), SNP 29%(-4)
Holyrood Regional*: CON 11%(+2), LAB 39%(-8), LD 10%(+3), SNP 29%(-4), GRN 6%(+3)

Most recent Scottish polling has shown a pretty consistent Labour lead, with the exception of Ipsos MORI’s most recent poll, which showed a sharp move towards the SNP, putting them marginally ahead of Labour.

This poll shows a broad movement away from both Labour and the SNP, and towards the minor parties. This may be partially a reversion to the mean (TNS-BMRB’s last poll showed Labour with a hefty 49% of the vote), or may be down to a methodological change. In this poll TNS-BMRB changed the way they conducted their interviews, with the interviewer giving people their laptop and asking the respondent to fill in their voting intention themselves, rather than the interviewer asking it as before. Naturally it could be co-incidence, but my expectation would have been that this methodological change would have increased the level of support found for the smaller parties that people may have been less confident in admitting support for.

(*Note that the Herald report doesn’t specifically mention the 29% regional figures for the SNP in the text, it just says they have the same figure. I’m interpreting that as meaning they are on 29% in both, though other people have interpreted it as meaning the SNP are on the same figure as last time, which would put them at 33% on the regional vote) – now confirmed as being 29%

There was also an Angus Reid GB poll on Friday which I forgot to post about. Topline figures there, with changes from February, were CON 34%(+1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1). They also had a question on the AV referendum, which found Yes 32%(-3), No 26%(+5), Don’t know 35%(-2), Would not vote 7%. Comapred to other pollsters Angus Reid tend to find the lowest level of support for the No campaign, but this shows the same movement towards the NO campaign that we’ve picked up in ICM and YouGov’s recent polls. Different companies asking different questions are showing different overall levels of support for Yes and No, but the trend seems to be in the same direction.

UPDATE: Guido points out that the Angus Reid poll has UKIP on 7%, only 3 points behind the Lib Dems on 10%. For some reason Angus Reid seem to show high levels of support for “other” parties compared to other companies – at the last election it seemed to be a characteristic by all the newer online pollsters.


60 Responses to “New TNS-BMRB Scottish poll”

1 2
  1. Roger m
    Brilliant
    Of course I would say that because I don’t meet any of the criteria

  2. Socal Liberal
    Jonathan Meades has a beautiful one hour programme on Aberdeen’s architecture. Episode 1 on “out of kilter” available on youtube

  3. As a Glaswegian who enjoyed the city’s poster outside the main concert hall reminding vistors that they were only 44 miles from that year’s City of Culture I have to say that you must visit –

    Edinburgh!

    Not for the pandas,but the parliament.

    I doubt if you meant that sort of architecture, but if you wanto visit the parliament, I’d be happy to meet you and show you around if I could,and I am sure there are others here who would do that if I couldn’t.

    Anthony can give you my email (or Eoin).

  4. Barney

    Do you have any plans to be in the vicinity of the Scotish parliament in the summer and in a position to show vistors how it works in an entirely different way to other legislatures they may be more familiar with?

  5. I’m an Edinburgher myself, and so not impartial, but I must say I prefer my own city to Glasgow. Glasgow feels very claustrophobic in a way that Edinburgh (especially the town centre) does not.

    Having said that, there are other beautiful places to visit, most obviously Saint Andrews, Stirling (which I think is underrated) and Inverness.

    Take an afternoon to visit Culross, if you get the chance. Lovely wee village.

  6. As I have recently got the brand new version of UK-Elect with offical BBC colours and the 2007 notionals, let’s see what that poll does to Scotland:

    Constituencies: Lab 54 (+19) SNP 10 (-11) Lib Dem 8 (-3) Con 1 (-5)

    The regional element calculator doesn’t appear to be working properly, but I would guess that Lab would be on the cusp of an overall majority with the Greens holding their current seat and gaining one in Lothians

  7. Not sure about that. 6% would give the Greens 5-8 MSPs

  8. The notion that any party anytime in a Scottish election can gain 19 MSP’s is just absurd.

    The Conservatives will lose a lot less than 3% of votes and maybe up to two seats but certainly not 4.

    I was taught that before you sign off a set of figures you should ask, “Is this consistent with everything else I know?” Well, it isn’t consistent with compensation on the list and the scale of past changes.

    Those who prepared the calculator should investigate to see what went wrong. The rest of us should ignore any future prediction from this calculator until they fix it and confess.

    Back to the tea leaves then. Does anyone know where I can buy eye of newt and tail of frog? Formerly you could get such things somewhere in Perthshire I believe.

  9. John B Dick
    These figures seem to be the FPTP prediction. The list would of course change things

  10. The lib dems will certainly be pleased that their party list support is only 1% down on 2007.

1 2