YouGov’s daily poll tonight has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10% – back to a Labour lead of six points.

Note that this morning we did successfully manage to get the data from yesterday’s survey, which was not beyond recovery after all. The topline figures yesterday would have been CON 36%, LAB 41%, LDEM 11%.

The Barnsley Central by-election result tonight is supposed to be around midnight. Presumably they have efficient counters, or are (probably correctly) expecting a low turnout. The Welsh referendum count won’t be beginning till tomorrow morning, so we won’t have results there until tomorrow lunchtime at least.

112 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36%, LAB 42%, LD 10%”

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  1. But this does leave me wondering how AV would affect the Tory/UKIP vote share.
    It wouldn’t matter a jot in places like Barnsley. Labour would win in the first round & second preferences wouldn’t be counted.

    Therefore, I’m guessing you are interested in the potential effect in other English constituencies.

  2. LD reaction on the airwaves today boils down to – it’s Labour’s fault, the electorate have got it wrong, we won’t take any notice.

    If Labour begins to supplant them as the party of opposition in southern constituencies then the “bounce back” might fail to materialise.

  3. @Amber – “[x] would win in the first round & second preferences wouldn’t be counted”.

    Which is why I’m saying No to AV.

  4. @amberstar

    You are indeed correct…

    I didn’t realise until today that UKIP were campaigning for a Yes vote on AV but would prefer a more proportional system.

  5. There were 5 local by-elections yesterday. 4 results came in last night (an excellent showing from Labour in all 4), but the Scottish one was counted today due to the time-consuming STV system (de facto AV in by-election situations). Another solid Labour result, but the SNP vote also held up very well. May is gonna be tight!

    Kilpatrick ward – West Dunbartonshire Council – LAB HOLD

    1st Preference Votes (STV)
    Lab 60.1% (+4.2)
    SNP 32.9% (+0.1)
    Con 7.0% (-1.3)
    (SSP n/a (-3.0))

    The Council remains under SNP/Ind control.

  6. The real test for the LD’s will come after the AV referendum as I am pretty sure, particulalrly in view of the recent Yougov poll, that No will win.

    Cameron is already moving the Tory party to the right on immigration/multicultural with his Munich speech and Europe with his comments on the recent judgements from the ECHR. His intention is clearly to put clear blue water between the Tories and the LD’s at any election and to hoover up as much of the UKIP/far right vote as he can to counterbalance the LD’s defecting to Lab. I would not be surprised to see the Tories offering some form of referendum on Europe, possibly only on leaving the ECHR rather that the EU itself, at the next GE.

    DC will do everything he can though to keep the coalition together till Oct 2013 when the new constituency boundaries come in, after which he will not care if the LD’s jump ship. IMO

  7. poll geeks will get a lot out of Survation’s data on who voted UKIP..

    their largest influx of support came from former Labour voters….

  8. Poll geeks would hopefully note sample size of 22.

  9. Anthony,

    I took some time out there to swallow 2 full humble pies. Me bad!

  10. @Eoin/TGB

    Going on Survation’s own figures from their small survey (not a bad predicted result at that) possibly 29% of Ukip support came from 3% of Labour 2010 voters; 19% of Ukip support came from 10% of Con 2010 voters, and a further 19% came from 11% of 2010 LDs.

    Only 9% were people who voted Ukip in 2010.

    1,727 voted Ukip in 2010 and 2,953 yesterday, so that leaves (I’m using a calculator here :) )1,416 Ukip 2010 voters who either deserted the party or stayed at home.

  11. barbazenzero

    In reply to my laughter about UKIP’s Nigel, —–
    you said it’s called democracy.

    Don’t you find that democracy (or what some people call democracy) sometimes makes you laugh?

    Don’t you find that democracy (or what some people call democracy) sometimes makes you laugh?

    Yes indeed, when you see what passes for democracy in the UK you have to laugh or cry. Usually I find it’s the latter.

    OTOH, there are countries – Switzerland springs to mind – where the people control the politicians, and where it’s the politicians who have to laugh or cry. That strikes me as a rather better approach.

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