Tomorrow we have two actual elections to look at, both of which have been rather forgotten about.

First there is the Barnsley Central by-election. Barnsley Central is a safe Labour seat, and hence has attracted little attention – it will be held easily by Labour. In 2010 Labour received 47% of the vote, with the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives almost equal in second on 17% a piece (the Lib Dems got 6 more votes than the Tories). The BNP saved their deposit with 9%.

There has been only one poll of Barnsley Central, carried out by Survation. They put Labour on 63%, the Conservatives on 13%, UKIP on 9%, the Lib Dems on 6% and BNP on 4%. It has to be said, however, that Survation’s previous attempt at a by-election poll in Oldham East and Saddleworth wasn’t a fantastic success, showing the Lib Dems and Labour neck and neck.

Second there is the Welsh referendum on extending law making powers to the Welsh Assembly. Once again, the polls suggest that the result here will be almost a foregone conclusion. Today we have polls on the Welsh referendum from both YouGov and rmg:Clarity – a recent recruit to the British Polling Council. I know little about their methods, beyond the fact that it was a phone poll stratified by constituency, but either way, the two companies show almost identical results.

Rmg:Clarity found 49% intending to vote YES, 22% intending to vote NO. Repercentaged to exclude don’t knows that works out at 69% YES to 31% NO.

The YouGov poll for ITV Wales, weighted for likelihood to vote, showed YES on 61%, No on 28% and 12% don’t know. Repercentaged to exclude don’t knows the figures were identical to the rmg-clarity poll – 69% YES, 31% NO. Given that the turnout is likely to be very low indeed, we also tested out filtering by likelihood to vote and including people who said they were 10/10 certain to vote – the figures were still 69% yes to 31% no.

Note that there will not be a YouGov voting intention poll tonight – see this note from Peter – there was a power outage at the YouGov’s German data centre that interrupted the data collection last night and we couldn’t be confident what could be salvaged would be reliable. Thus is the problem with daily polling – if you do it all in one day and something goes wrong, there is no time for a second attempt! All should be back to normal tomorrow.


157 Responses to “Barnsley Central and the OTHER referendum”

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  1. The Guardian has a live byelection feed fwiw… seems the tweeter is still on the M1 atm.

    What will happen to the actual LD vote (as opposed to a weighted VI) when there is no concerted encouragement of Tory switchers as happened at OE&S?

  2. Dawve

    You shouldn’t have done that. Now we have to follow Barney’s example and explain to others what that means

    http://www.scotoons.co.uk/pages/sandd/who.html

    “Duggie, who shares Shuggie’s distaste for work and taste for vast quantities of lager.”

    Obviously the lager will be the crates of Peroni delivered to Labour and Tory MSPs as a reward for voting down minimum pricing of alcohol.

  3. Dawve30
    The record is a closed book to me but it sounds really good!

  4. Barney

    “The record is a closed book to me”

    Now don’t be so self effacing. A little bit upthread you were explaining to our friends elsewhere what the Record was all about.

    Now you tell us you’ve never seen it – no wonder you missed out all that stuff about their anti-gay campaign.

    I wonder what your supporters will think when they find you so dismissive of a paper lots of them read – maybe that you are just another Peroni Socialist?

  5. Old Nat
    I hope to feature in several stories in the P and J tomorrow. That suits me. The only reason apart from you I have heard of Peroni is there is an advert in the local semi-art-house cinema. As you know I am a Calvininst tee-toteller

  6. Barney

    “I hope to feature in several stories in the P and J tomorrow.”

    I’m sure your former LD opponent wished the same thing. Be careful what you wish for! :-)

    I wouldn’t expect you to read the Telegraph, but you would be a very poor choice for an MSP in the North East if you don’t read the Courier as well.

    http://www.thecourier.co.uk/News/National/article/8794/msps-beer-a-reward-for-alcohol-pricing-vote.html

  7. A impressive result for labour.

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