There are two voting intention polls tonight. First YouGov’s daily polling has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%. A seven point Labour lead is very much in line with YouGov’s recent polls showing a Labour lead of 6 or so.

Second is ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline figures there, with changes from their last telephone poll a month ago, are CON 35%(+1), LAB 39%(-4), LDEM 12%(+2), Others 14% – a reduction in Labour’s lead.


77 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

1 2
  1. Little change on yougov.
    SAS had no effect
    Interesting DC didn’t repaet in commons today that the CON were slow of the mark last week

  2. Any ITV Wales poll due to come out for Feb?

  3. 50,000 state workers have just been told that they will be moving on to full time contracts and a public sector pay rise of 15% has been announced – in Saudi Arabia.

    The stock market there has fallen 10% in two weeks and 119 activists, businessmen and academics wrote an open letter to the king calling for reform. A ‘Day of Rage’ has been called for March 11th.

    The Saudi government action smack of desperation and I’m not sure whether it will head off discontent or fuel it – in the current mood sweeping the region my hunch is that it will lead to greater demands.

    It could well be that March 11th will be the day that all talk of a return to economic growth in the UK ends.

  4. Hmmm,

    I assume that people will now go back to saying that YouGov are getting it right and that people should ignore the other pollsters, on the “whichever pollster is showing the biggest Labour lead must be the accurate one” principle?

  5. @Percy

    I think the point of making an early apology is to draw a line under something. No point then going on about it afterwards…

  6. Who here has said that? Pointless comment if ever I saw one.

  7. @Alec – “… all talk of a return to economic growth in the UK ends.”

    Latest plan to “boost the economy” – by raising the speed limit to 80 mph should get things moving again. ;)

  8. C’mon Neil, be fair.

    Aspersions were being cast on the Comres poll before it was released; & none of us took it particularly seriously last time. Back then we were saying its credibility relied on it being similar to most of the other polls at that time.
    8-)

  9. Alec
    The Saudi run a pretty tight ship. They now have some female government ministers as does Oman. Changes have been slow to come but it is huge country, tribal but very different from Tunesia, Egypt or Libya. Mecca and Medina in Saudi make it a very different case. On the other hand if there was trouble and the foreign workers left it would be very different.

    The thousands of foreign workers leaving Libya will decimate their economy.

  10. @Percy – demonstrators have been shot and killed already in Oman and there is mounting anger there as well.

    I’m getting a feeling that this is a big revolution that will sweep away much of the current Arab world, including those parts where some change has already taken place.

    As with all revolutions the key question is what will replace it?

  11. @Neil A

    No harm in an apology as he was talking to parliament. As DC says the U.K. are now ahead of the curve and leading in EU, UN and Geneva.
    Shades of GB in that comment.

  12. All consistent with the shrinking Labour lead…..why I have no idea.

  13. @Amber, Barnaby.

    There has been an occasional tendency to poo-poo YG when the less frequent polls from other firms come along showing a much wider margin. Just a flippant comment from me, I accept. There are far more contributions keeping the faith with YG and ICM than the poo-poo’ers..

    @Percy,

    I often think our leaders pretend to be leading when they’re really just trying to stay with the pack. Actual origin thinking and trailblazing leaves you just a little bit exposed…

  14. @Alec

    You may be right but Oman has been independent for centuries, once had a big East African empire. Lost parts of Pakistan and Iran only a few decades ago.
    The old Sultans son deposed him, made changes. Universal sufrage in 2003, in 2010 judged by UN as most improved country over last 40 years. Higher average wage than many ME countries.
    On the other hand the elected reps are only consultative. Sultan is now in his 80’s, still respected. I get the impression people are waiting for him to go.

    The wind of change is blowing, you are right there but different countries will react in diff. ways to the desert breeze.

  15. @Sergio,

    I don’t think it’s a mystery really. Cuts are what hurts the government and recent world developments have pushed the front pages onto other subjects.

    When and if things calm down a bit, the talk will all be of redundancies and service reductions and the government’s star will fall again.

  16. @Neil A

    I was very tongue in cheek.

    The Germans sent two airforce planes into the desert and brought out several nationalities. We are very little Englanders… can one say little UKers.

  17. @Neil A

    Agree that the international focus is helping Cameron. It may be a reason why he is so keen to be seen to be leading the world on the issue.

    But the polls also accurately demonstrate Ed M’s failure to date to make a serious impact. It’s difficult for him as he can’t control the media agenda and therefore relies to a significant extent on mistakes from the Conservatives.

  18. Apparently most of the Labour reduction is down to some comment from someone within Labour who said that older people are not sharing enough of the financial burden. I can’t remember who said this, but it was about a week ago. They said that younger people and those with families were taking an unfair amount of the burden.

    Labour are in the lead substantially for voters 18-54, neck and neck 55-65, but in the 65’s and over the Tories have a 20% lead. I wonder why.

  19. @Percy,

    In fairness I think both HMS Cumberland and the Hercules flights rescued a fair few non-Britons as well.

    There’s probably a case for a proper pooling of resources by western countries. We have NATO, the EU and the OSCE but still we seem to act as individual nations when the timetable is tight. One wonders how long it would take to set up a central “Casualty Bureau” (to use police-speak) and assemble everyone’s lists of Libya-trapped citizens into one.

  20. @Neil A

    I agree. I’m a great admirer of our armed forces. I suspect the Germans and the French used their Transall 160 military transports. You’re right when things get tight countries have to act on their own.

    @R Huckle
    I think it was a right wing think tank that said old people weren’t contributing their fair share to the cuts, not labour.

  21. Percy

    Yes it was a European think tank who issued a report on 24/2/11, but I can remember seeing someone from Labour being asked about it and they appeared to agree.

  22. I remember hearing something on the Jeremy Vine show. Basically some guy arguing for the withdrawal of universal “gifts” to the old (bus passes, TV licenses etc) and replacing them with an increase pension provision for the poorest pensioners. It wasn’t all that controversial really, but the language was a bit Punch and Judy.

    I recall thinking at the time “I wonder how much money ‘free bus passes for the rich’ actually costs us – do wealthy old people ever use the bus??”

  23. Libya?
    Some contractors were in a panic to leave, others saying they have been pressured to leave by fearful relatives in the UK.
    The statement today is that all UK citizens who wanted to leave have left.
    Some commentators saying the regime has a very small sphere of influence, others that it has considerable support and there will be a civil war.
    Some discussion about who controls the oil feilds, while Muammar Gadaffi raises the spectre of colonisation.
    Cameron is “considering” arming rebel forces.

    Iraqi government also firing indiscriminately on demonstrators.

  24. Neil A

    “do wealthy old people ever use the bus??”

    I think it is a universal truth in society that those of us who have more will continue to grab a larger share of what is left! By and large, the middle classes will take more than their fair share of what’s going.

    Today, I had my haircut for the pensioner’s rate of £3 – though I’m sure that my pension is much larger than her wages. On Wednesday, I’m off to Edinburgh on my free bus pass etc etc.

    I’ve said plenty of times that you folk of working age are mugs to elect Governments who keep the rate of Income Tax down by slinging the cost on to NIC which we don’t pay.

    An OAP, a politician, and a worker are having a meeting. In the middle of the table is a plate with a dozen biscuits on it.

    The OAP reaches across and takes 11 biscuits, looks at the worker and says, “Watch out for that politician. He wants a piece of your biscuit.”

    As the dolphins said “So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish” as they departed just before the destruction of the Earth! :-)

  25. @ Old Nat

    Omg! My borderline communist radical activist friend just posted the same joke on her facebook profile. A Wall Street CEO, a teabagger, and a union member are sitting at a table together. There are 20 cookies. The Wall Street CEO takes 19 of the cookies and stuffs them in his breifcase leaving just one cookie for the other two. Then he turns to the teabagger and warns him that the union member might try and take part of his cookie.

    Both her joke and your joke are quite poignant and pretty funny. :)

  26. @ Old Nat

    “I think it is a universal truth in society that those of us who have more will continue to grab a larger share of what is left! By and large, the middle classes will take more than their fair share of what’s going.

    Today, I had my haircut for the pensioner’s rate of £3 – though I’m sure that my pension is much larger than her wages. On Wednesday, I’m off to Edinburgh on my free bus pass etc etc.”

    I don’t think your pensioner’s rate haircut is really taking advantage. You’re entitled to it. Hair is very important and taking good care of it can be very expensive. When it comes to the idea of people attempting to grab a larger share when they already have more than others…..I think I have a different worldview. People who increase their own wealth (in most cases) aren’t neccesarily doing so at the expense of others.

    In a related note about people taking or not taking what they’re entitled to, I just saw a new CBS/New York Times poll released tonight showing Americans oppose Wisconsin Governor Scott “Mubarak” Walker’s (and now the aborted plans of other Republican leaders) plan to take away the collective bargaining rights of public employee unions by a near 2-1 margin. Booyah! :)

    I’m really amazed by this because the U.S. television media is staffed by Ivy League elitists who are very anti-union. And unions can be so easily demonized. Of course the governor didn’t help himself by taking a prank phone call from someone pretending to be one of his billionaire backers where he went on length about how he would trick and then kidnap his opponents. I mean that sort of thing tends not to help you.

  27. @ Neil A

    “do wealthy old people ever use the bus?”

    There’s always a few. But your larger point is well taken. Sometimes in politics, people will get themselves riled up over certain issues or proposals that when you actually analyze it make very little difference in the long run.

  28. @Socalliberal – “Hair is very important and taking good care of it can be very expensive.”

    That’s the most California thing you’ve ever posted, for sure. Up here in the rugged north, we do things differently:
    1) Buy an electric hair shaver for £21 online
    2) Shave head
    3) Repeat at appropriate intervals
    4) Use money saved for extra nights in pub

    Hair care is for girls (and Californians).

  29. @Neil A – when a parish councillor once, I got up the noses of my local Labour authority by querying the spend on subsidised buses. We live in an extremely remote area and at the time had a sparse bus service which made life difficult for anyone needing to use it for any useful purpose (shopping, ride home from pub etc).

    It was pre FOI days but I asked for details of the level of subsidy. They refused to tell me, although we did know the number of passengers (very few). It was an article of faith that the council subsidised rural routes and they measured success in terms of the amount of subsidy paid.

    In the end, a sympathetic councillor unofficially gave me the figure I was looking for. I worked out that it was enought to buy the three residents in the parish who used the bus a car each (they couldn’t drive of course) but other options like using the money for taxis was equally viable. We made no progress and remain to this day with a bus service of limited value to anyone.

  30. Billy Bob
    “Iraqi government also firing indiscriminately on demonstrators.”

    What? In Libya? Who supplied those weapons?

    ;-)

  31. “WELSH voters will deliver a two-to-one majority in favour of more powers for the National Assembly in Thursday’s referendum, according to the latest polling figures.

    A YouGov poll for S4C suggests that 67% of those voting will back the Yes campaign, with 33% voting No.”

    h ttp://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/welsh-politics/welsh-politics-news/2011/03/01/67-will-vote-yes-in-referendum-says-poll-91466-28252921/#ixzz1FKhvddQm

  32. @ Alec

    “Up here in the rugged north, we do things differently:
    4) Use money saved for extra nights in pub”

    You omitted –

    5) Use hair to make shirts with.

    :-)

  33. @Colin – Shirts? We don’t wear shirts up here!

  34. :) :) Happy St David’s Day to any of our Welsh Readers :) :)

    I have only two more weeks to the Cheltenham Fest. and then Paddy’s Day :) [oh and the small matter of Ireland v England in the Rugby but that’s for another day :) ]

  35. @Greenbenches

    Two weeks to the Cheltenham Fest, gosh

    Is this a portend for Gadaffi or DC and NC our two consuls

    Beware the Ides of March

  36. Alec

    :-)

  37. Percy,

    A small army of Irish will march on the Bristol region, in a day of Anger [or elation depending on who wins the Gold Cup]

  38. I have checked the recently released MORI issues poll [see the link] it does not have the upcoming horse racing as an issue affecting the country, and so is thereby declared a vodoo poll… but I attach it nonetheless..

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2724/

  39. My experience is that quite a lot of wealthy older people use the bus.
    The 2 polls are within the same MOE. They are consistent with a Labour lead of about 6% which seems to be what the polls, taken as a whole, are saying at the moment. There is a sense that perhaps Labour is taking a bit of a breather.
    This, however, will stop when the Budget is presented. That could herald another tougher time for the Conservatives.

  40. ……….and that isn’t “pooh-poohing” the ComRes poll, it’s merely pointing out that there is a margin of error. Calling it a rogue or outlier would be pooh-poohing it.

  41. @Greenbenches

    Caeser was off to a campaign in Iraq
    Is DC off to a campaign in Libya
    Who is Brutus?

  42. @Alec,

    You northerners can’t be that broke. Spending £20 on luxury clippers from the interweb? Bah! Mine were just over £9 from Asda. That’s thrift!

  43. “Cameron is “considering” arming rebel forces.”

    Oh FFS. Do the idiots never learn?

    This is what the UN is for.

  44. R Huckle

    I think you have raised a really interesting point about the split between young and old. It appears much more important than say social or geographical divide. I find it intriguing and I assume that those responsible for electoral strategy in the Parties also find it so.

    I am not sure if one statement would have had much affect, but rather a range of issues.

    It would be interesting to know the reasons given particularly in the oldest and youngest age bracket.

    Is it good news for labour that in 20 years many of the Tory supporters will be dead, or is it that the population sees labour favouring the young and Tories favouring the old, and so as we reach another age bracket our politics change?

    Also, although all ages uses the various communication avenues of the Internet, the young use it most; is Labour winning the battle of the Internet?

    Given lack of Tory support in Scotland, are there any under 25s living north of the border who vote Tory? Perhaps Oldnat knows of such a person or even met them.

  45. Percy,

    Hmm.. I am guessing you already know the answer. :)

  46. Looking at the results in Ireland, I can’t help thinking that the Irish Labour Party is missing a trick if it decides to go into coalition with the right leaning Fine Gael. In the past, it’s done so every time it’s had the opportunity, and its reward for acting the bridesmaid always seems to be to fall back substantially in subsequent polls so remaining as a fringe party in the long term.

    If you treat Irish Labour as being at least a gnat’s crotchet to the left of centre, it works out that parties of the left have gained around 60 seats out of 166 – 37 Labour, 14 SF, 2 PDP, 2 SP and perhaps 5 or so left leaning Independents. Both Labour and SF polled less on 1st preferences than they at one stage looked likely to, so there was potential for more than 60.

    It’s not hard to see Fine Gael being discredited a few years down the road, given that they have little different to offer than FF and (IMO) there is little chance of those failed economic policies starting to work in the near future. (Although, in all honesty, it’s difficult to see any path for Ireland to get out of its current mess). So if Irish Labour did stay out of government, it’s hard not to see it picking up further votes and seats in a future election, perhaps not too far down the road. And it wouldn’t take too many more to raise the 60 to something close to a working majority or at least a Labour-led government. So this seems to be a moment of opportunitiy for a historic realignment of Irish politics.

    Instead, it’s being reported that Irish Labour will go into coalition. I suggest that it will suffer the same fate as a party over this side of the water that was also once regarded as being a gnat’s crotchet to the left of centre, which also took the bait of going into coalition with a party of the right, and whose supporters now get excited by any polls showing them attracting more than 10% support.

  47. Phil,

    In 2007, The Green Party went into coalition with FF and lost all their TDs. From 2002, The PDs went into coalition with FF and now have no TDs. In 1995, the last time Labour went into coalition with FG, they halved their share of the vote.

  48. Old Nat . you are lucky, my Pensioners haircut is £7.00. As to buses, it is a ‘voluntary’ benifit only of real benifit if you live in cities or larger towns.

    WhAT no one has mentioned, those of us who live off the interest of our investments are in real hardship. My income is less than a five % of what it was a few years ago. I sometimes wonder, I keep the house at 12 degrees and flush the loo only twice in 24hrs

  49. A rare S4C Yougov poll on voting intention for this Thursdays referendum in Wales

    Yes- 67%
    No- 33%

    Somthing tells me it will be a bit closer on the day

    ITV Wales/ Yougov poll due out tommorow.

  50. @Phil,

    Perhaps the Irish Labour Party makes a distinction between party interest and national interest?

    The Republic would have a pretty rough time of it with a minority government in the current climate I think.

1 2