There are two voting intention polls tonight. First YouGov’s daily polling has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%. A seven point Labour lead is very much in line with YouGov’s recent polls showing a Labour lead of 6 or so.

Second is ComRes’s monthly telephone poll for the Independent. Topline figures there, with changes from their last telephone poll a month ago, are CON 35%(+1), LAB 39%(-4), LDEM 12%(+2), Others 14% – a reduction in Labour’s lead.


77 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. @Greenbenches

    Not sure I do actually.

    The TV suggests the military are looking at British Eurofighters in Cyprus 1100 mile from Tripoli.
    Perhaps Gove is right geography ought to be taught in schools. Better to get in bed with Berlusconi in Italy!
    One wonders whether the LibDem need a good war. Is it a sign of sucessful government to have a good war
    Don’t think Libya would be a good war, one would be opening a can of worms.

  2. Glenn Otto

    “flush the loo only twice in 24hrs”

    I must admit, I had never thought about that. As you may know, Scotland kept its Water Supply in public hands, so it is a public utility free to users and paid from through taxation.

    Maybe that sounds as odd to some of you, as your system sounds to me.

  3. Henry

    In the recent MORI poll there were 122 respondents in the 18-24 age range.

    Their constituency votes were

    Con 10
    Lab 38
    LD_ 13
    SNP 29
    Other (almost certainly Green/Socialist) 19
    DK/WNV 13

    I don’t really mix in the social circles where I’d expect to meet a Young Tory – being neither very rich nor a Rangers supporter (though David Murray’s decision to support Alex Salmond for FM, may mean that even fewer of the latter group vote Tory).

  4. Sorry – above figures were weighted ones – but the point remains the same.

  5. OldNat

    If you wade through the Ipsos-MORI tables, they do actually break down the “Others” VI for the 18-24 age group. As you say, the “Others” is all Green/Socialist (not BNP/UKIP, as it would be in England).

    Lab 43%
    SNP 35%
    Con 8%
    LD 7%
    Grn 5%
    SSP 2%
    BNP none
    Christian Party none
    Solidarity none
    UKIP none
    Ind none
    other others none

    http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-ipsos-mori-spom-tables-february-2011.pdf

  6. OldNat
    Maybe that sounds as odd to some of you, as your system sounds to me.
    If anyone bothered to poll English people on whether we think we should have our water privatised I think you’d see a plurality would prefer to see it renationalised, as polls tend to do on the renationalisation of public utilities. The only people that sounds odd to are Thatcherites, and there’s a significant part of England which aren’t Thatcherite but aren’t being represented whatsoever.

  7. Argh, buggered up the formatting. Try again:

    @OldNat
    Maybe that sounds as odd to some of you, as your system sounds to me.
    If anyone bothered to poll English people on whether we think we should have our water privatised I think you’d see a plurality would prefer to see it renationalised, as polls tend to do on the renationalisation of public utilities. The only people that sounds odd to are Thatcherites, and there’s a significant part of England which aren’t Thatcherite but aren’t being represented whatsoever.

  8. OLDNAT

    Thank you for your figures although it does destroy my theory that there are no tories under the age of 25 in Scotland.

  9. Apparently there’s a stink being kicked up about defence cuts, making 11,000 service people redundant, etc, just after DC has talked about a “no fly zone” and intervention in Libya. You have to wonder “how/what with?”

  10. KeithP

    NATO countries closest to Libya are Italy and Greece. I doubt they would be interested in leading a “no fly zone” Turkey is against it, our “sovereign” bases in Cyprus are operated with Turkish aquiesence. As I said above Cyprus is 1100 miles from Libya.
    Lord West introduced a more reasoned discussion. Do you take out Libyan radar and SAM sites first, do rules of engagement allow shooting down at great distance or do you need close eye identification first to see what you are firing missiles at.
    With our other commitments such as the Afghan continuous airlift do we have enough tanker aircraft anyway.
    Gadaffi is wrong about it being Al-Qaeda inspired but there are many North Africans in Europe. A Europe vee North Africa conflict would be fertile ground for al-Qaeda
    We should institute an airlift to get Egyptians etc away from the Tunesian Libya border that would be useful.

  11. Stuart

    Have you any idea what the sub total headings for Unweighted Total on P57 of the MORI poll mean?

    Edinburgh
    SA
    All

  12. Busy with bairn right now. Have a look tomorrow. (It is many years since I did my honours course in quantitative market research!)

  13. Eoin,thanks for the St Davids day wishes.
    Two general comments.I agree with Barnaby(but then I
    usually do) that a surprising number of rich old people use the bus.My mother and Aunt and various old cronies
    do so mainly because they have given up driving-thank
    goodness- because of poor eyesight etc.This may be a motivation for others.With regards the Welsh referendum,
    if it were not for the fact we have received our postal votes
    we would not even know it is taking place!Expect a very low turnout indeed.

  14. Ann(in Wales) and others

    Do RICH old people use the bus, I thought rich people were driven around in their rolls when they are not being jetted around in private aircraft, or are cruising on their boats. I have never seen a politician, senior civil servant or rich person on public transport (except I believe but have not seen in first class).

    I suppose it all depends how you define rich. A person who has has contributed by working hard for 40 years and paid out a forutne in taxes and NI, bought a house and saved a few bob is not in my eyes rich, whereas MDs of FTSE 100, top bankers sharing billion pound bonuses, premiership footballers, lawyers, senior civil servants, local Government CE, who IMO generally contribute very little with the exception of top footballers, are.

  15. @ Barnaby

    “This, however, will stop when the Budget is presented. That could herald another tougher time for the Conservatives.”

    April 2011 will certainly herald a tougher time for the Government-mainly because that is when the 2011/12 FY cuts start to be implemented.

    THe Budget, however could prove as difficult for EB as for GO-if GO plays his cards right.

    If all the variances from June 2010 are positive-notably the revised growth & tax revenue forecasts -then GO should be on the front foot.

    If the June 2010 growth forecasts are-as might seem likely-revised down; then EB should have as much difficulty as GO.

    I hope GO is on top of EB’s numbers as well as his own :-)

  16. Henry

    You are referring to a small elite, who run the media, control the political parties, at least labour and conservative and generally are unseen (except footballers). The bankers, partly through their own incompetence and greed and partly through negligent regulation by the government have been noticed by the public recently, but generally this low tax paying elite for reasons stated are ignored.

    Actually there was a time when the Labour Party actually went after these people rather than middle and lower income earners.

  17. @ Colin

    If the June 2010 growth forecasts are-as might seem likely-revised down; then EB should have as much difficulty as GO.
    ——————————————————-
    If the OBR reduce its forecast for future growth, do you actually believe that the headlines will be: “June 2010 growth revised downwards but still showed positive outlook”?

    Really?

    Osborne had best look to his own numbers & ‘pray’ that the OBR isn’t forced to cut the growth forecast in the coming budget.
    8-)

  18. Amber

    “If the OBR reduce its forecast for future growth, do you actually believe that the headlines will be: “June 2010 growth revised downwards but still showed positive outlook”?”

    No.

    What I said was :-

    “If the June 2010 growth forecasts are-as might seem likely-revised down; then EB should have as much difficulty as GO. ”

    I was contemplating the nature of the exchanges between GO & EB when we get to the Budget.

  19. @ Alec

    “That’s the most California thing you’ve ever posted, for sure.”

    Lol, I suppose it is.

    “Up here in the rugged north, we do things differently:
    1) Buy an electric hair shaver for £21 online
    2) Shave head
    3) Repeat at appropriate intervals
    4) Use money saved for extra nights in pub”

    I take it you don’t have any hair stylists in northern England? Paying the extra money to have a stylist make your hair look right is totally worth it. And being a teatotaller (except for election night or to celebrate election victory), saving money for bars doesn’t really factor in.

    “Hair care is for girls (and Californians).”

    What a conservative and non-forward thinking nation you must live in. :)

  20. Henry,
    My definition of rich is someone who never has to worry
    about paying their bills.How nice this must be!

  21. @SoCalLiberal

    Which reminds me, I need a haircut. It may well be reasonably styled and layered but it’s far too long. Probably longer than my wife’s :)

  22. I mention getting a haircut, and suddenly everyone is doing it.

    Sigh. What it is to be a fashion leader. :-(

  23. @OldNat

    The perils of fame.

    But as you siggest, if the deluded masses elevate you to guru, who are you to fly in the face of public opinion?

    Or would you rather be hair to the throne?

  24. Hair
    Bed
    Peace.

  25. RAF

    :-)

  26. Huge lead for Labour in tonight’s poll – and a massive drop in approval ratings for Cameron.. probably an outlier

  27. @ RAF

    I’m getting my hair done on Friday (this conversation reminded me that I had to call my hairstylist). See all the benefits that blogging here and following UK politics bring me?

    @ Old Nat

    “I mention getting a haircut, and suddenly everyone is doing it.

    Sigh. What it is to be a fashion leader.”

    Don’t be ashamed to be a fashion leader. I remember when I first started watching Food Network on cardiotheater at the gym. People thought I was insane! But now everyone is doing it!

    And it’s not like you haven’t been a leader before. When you were a Young Nat, the Scottish Nationalist Party MPs caucused in bed (as the late Senator Maureen Neuberger would say). Today, they actually run your very own Scottish Parliament.

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