Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor is out, and has topline voting intention figures unchanged from a month ago CON 33%(nc), LAB 43%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc).

The poll also contained a question on the AV referendum, which amongst those certain to vote (presumably using MORI’s usual 10/10 filter), 49% would vote YES, 37% would vote NO.

UPDATE: Full tabs are here. MORI are indeed using their normal 10/10 likelihood to vote filter (that is, only including people who say they are 10/10 absolutely certain to vote in the referendum). This increases the YES lead fron 7 points to 12 points.

56 Responses to “MORI/Reuters – CON 33, LAB 43, LDEM 13”

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  1. Latest YouGov/Sun results 24th Feb CON 38%, LAB 42%, LD 10%; APP -23

    I think this might be an outlier!

  2. Tony – there is no evidence, but to some extent I would expect it is the case.

    The large majority (not all – but the majority) of Labour’s gain in support has come from the Liberal Democrats. This will encompass two sorts of support –

    1) People whose primary support was always really Labour, but who voted Lib Dem for tactical anti-Conservative reasons. These people will overwhelmingly live in areas where Labour is weak… otherwise they would have been supporting Labour in the first place!

    2) People who used to have the Lib Dems as their genuine first choice, but who have become disillusioned and now support Labour. These people could come from anywhere.

    It’s not easy to quantify the relative size of the two groups (it could be that the first group is comparatively small compared to the second, or vice-versa), but certainly we would expect the first group to be concentrated in Labour’s weaker areas.

  3. Joe – voting intention by intelligence would be difficult to do. Intelligence is too tricky to measure or define.

    By education level is more straightforward. Historically graduates have tended to be more Lib Dem and less Labour than non-graduates.

  4. @Tony Dean – Back on 16th Jan (OE&S time) I posted a back of the envelope trawl through constituencies: on the basis of one third of LD voters defecting to Labour. I doesn’t prove anything at all obviously.

    Roughly 54 Con seats and 19 LD seats fall to Labour.

    14 LD seats falling to the Tories.

    Being a bit generous to LDs there perhaps: giving them the benefit of the doubt where they have an established majority (and losing a third would still leave them vulnerable).

    This on the basis of the ‘old’ constituencies (it is possible that changing boundaries could bring some new voters who have not exercised their vote effectively in the past).

  5. TGB

    Denis Canavan got the highest personal vote and the largest majority. Long and effective service in dealing with constituency issues, his local reputation for integrity and the fact tat had suffered an injustice all contributed.

    The first time he also won a list seat, which denied Labour another MSP so they reckoned.

  6. With the likelihood of a reduction in the number of MPs, and the boundary changes this brings, I guess that our understand of what the polls mean will have to radically change before the next General Election. I can only hope that the Electoral Commission is given a free hand and the time they need to make the changes sensibly and fairly.

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