ComRes/Newsnight poll has AV and FTPT equal
There is a new ComRes poll on the Alternative Vote for Newsnight tonight, which – in response to the question on the ballot paper – has YES and NO equal on 41%. This is in contrast to other polls asking the bare referendum question, which have tended to show AV ahead (indeed, the most recent ComRes poll conducted three days before this one had a ten point lead for AV).
What’s the reason for the difference? My guess is that it is because in this poll the referendum question appears to have been prefaced by four statements giving some pro- and anti- arguments that are likely to be used in the campaign, and perhaps exposure to these moved people against AV. Certainly, the proportion of don’t knows was much lower than ComRes normally find, and the NO statements used met with more agreement than the YES ones – 65% agreed that the system of electing MPs needed overhauling, but only 38% agreed that having more coalition governments would be good. 63% agreed the referendum was a waste of money, 81% agreed that people’s first preference votes should count more than other people’s 2nd, 3rd or 4th preferences.
It’s also possible that the difference is because this was a phone poll, rather than online, or perhaps because the poll wasn’t politically weighted (ComRes often don’t use political weighting on polls without voting intention questions, though I’m not certain on this one), but my guess is that it is due to the statements prefacing it.
Of course, theoretically it’s possible that loads of don’t knows made their mind up to vote NO at the end of last week, but I suspect that isn’t the case. Note that the poll was conducted over the weekend, so before the NO campaign’s launch this week and their focus upon the cost of the referendum.
ComRes have now produced four polls on AV.
the first in June had the yes leading by 27%.
the second had yes leading by 10%
the third had yes leading by 6%
the fourth, and most recent has saw that lead eradicated.
ICM have produced 6 polls on AV. The first in May showed Yes leading by 21%. The most recent has Yes still ahead but by just 6%.
And to complete the intra-company comparison: YouGov have had 21 polls on AV. The first three back in June/July saw the Yes campaign enjoy a lead averaging 10%. The two most recent saw the no campaign ahead by just 1%.
In between these dates all three companies had their differences but they all generally agreed that a) Yes used to a fair chunk ahead. and b) now they are not.
This data might help inform opinion as to future direction of the AV polls. but then again it might not. For you to decide.
Eoin – taking the start and end of YG’s AV tracker and omitting all the polls in the middle creates a false impression of the trend.
Look at the graph here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3100
YouGov started showing YES ahead and there was a clear trend towards NO, which had NO moving ahead in August but seemed to halt around October, since when the polls have been pretty steady until this month, when there has been a shift towards YES.
ComRes have asked the question in two or three different ways which make comparison difficult. I certainly think the change here is more likely to be down to the context of the questions that a large shift from Don’t Know to NO in the matter of three days when there were no particular developments.
“… 81% agreed that people’s first preference votes should count more than other people’s 2nd, 3rd or 4th preferences.”
This appears to be a cogent argument against the “miserable little reform/stepping stone” that is AV.
Anthony,
I agree… I created my own graph to take account of YG swing the other way… but it is very hard to pin graphs to your comments facility…
http://eoin-clarke.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-av-campaign-will-sadly-fail.html
Anthony,
i think your journalists are on the optimistic side of things when they were forecasting tonight’s proceedings.. H Baldwin MP has tweeted that she has been told 4am is the “best case” scenario..
I think I was probably optimistic in my relaying of it. I think the words of one journo were “long after we’re all asleep”.
I think it’s supposed to return to the Lords at about 11. I’m not sure what the delay in that is, given it should clear the Commons again in 15 minutes or so. Then the Lords will presumably debate it again for a while and either accept or reject it again. That would mean Harriet’s best, best, bestest case should be about midnight – but if they are dismissing the chances of that happening I suppose it heads back to the Commons in the early hours of the morning, then back to the Lords at 3 or 4 o’clock.
Anthony,
good point.. its cleared the Commons now.. seems a strange way to do business… but who am i to quibble.. a mere serf.
17 Tories voted against the govt. on 40% turnout for AV there I am hearing..
… and back the other way.
Lords to serve.
If they debate until May, can they call it a tie?
NickP – it actually becomes a tie if the both reject the others amendments and send it back without an alternative. The bill is then deadlocked and is lost (until the next session when it can be brought back under the Parliament Act and passed without the Lords’ consent).
Obviously the government don’t want to lose the bill for a year, so actually they proposed an alternative dummy amendment, just requiring the electoral commission to publish the turnout (which obviously has no substantial effect, but prevents the Bill being lost).
Anthony
Sorry to discuss polling when there’s far more exciting things to talk about such as seeing legislation getting passed (or not as the case may be).
It seems obvious that a huge number of the don’t nos are actually then convinced by the arguments one way or another.
Are there numbers for how people would be voting before they know the arguments (i.e. were just the don’t nos told the different arguments or was everyone given the whole explanation?)
Anyone else appalled that an unelected House can do this to the democratically elected government? House of Lords has to go. Those who make the laws- or reject the laws- must be able to be voted in or out of power.
Shouldn’t we be on the streets and the news of the world be watching us?
Obviously the government don’t want to lose the bill for a year……
————————————————-
Really? What is the downside for the Tories, if it is pushed out for a year?
8-)
Amberstar – the downside for the Tories is that the Lib Dems pull the plug on the coalition. Okay that would lead to a general election in which the yellows would do badly – but the party could re-build from there.
Adrian – In this context no, though one might assume that opinion without the pro- and anti- arguments would have been similar to the ComRes poll at the weekend.
There was a YouGov poll for the Constitution Society last year that actually did what you want: asking normal referendum voting intention, giving people lots of pro and anti arguments and questions about what they think about electoral systems, and then asking them voting intention again – http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2833
Amber – the Conservatives want the seat redistribution part of the Bill to start in good time for the next election, and want the coalition agreement to be fulfilled and the coalition to persist, so will want the referendum too (equally, if they lost the bill, they’d have to start again with the wretched thing next year!)
Jack
I think the bill was a hybrid and unconstitutional and the Lords are doing the Tories as much a favour as Labour. None of them want the bill.
Hey Jack,
Although in many ways this is an legislative dogs breakfast, arguably the House of Lords is more as democratic than it’s ever been. And it’s only doing what it’s always done before (this happened in the Thatcher and Blair years).
[snip]
But I’m all up for taking to the streets and getting a tented city in Trafalgar Square and staying there till the regime falls. Let’s make Friday the day of departure!!
Anthony,
Are you sure about Lords recommencing at 11… I passed that on to Kerry McCarthy who seemed wholly unaware and equally horrified..
Eoin – I only got it from the BBC. They could easily be wrong.
Anthony… Ta! ‘only’ Lol.
Eoin – Lords sitting at 10.30pm now, apparently
Latest YouGov/Sun results 16th Feb CON 35%, LAB 45%, LD 10%; APP -26
Lab neck and neck with ATTAD approval level sliding
@ MikeSmithson
Amberstar – the downside for the Tories is that the Lib Dems pull the plug on the coalition. Okay that would lead to a general election in which the yellows would do badly – but the party could re-build from there.
——————————————————
Thanks – but I doubt the Dems would break up the Coalition; IMO, it would more likely mean they’d have to hang on for another year to get AV.
8-)
I was in favour of a change in voting system and coalition politics, until the Lib Dems recent behaviour. As far as I am concerned, the Lib Dems have behaved very poorly and I will no longer support them. I can’t be the only one, who thinks that if you have a third party dictating too much, you end up with a compromise that neither the largest party or the public are particularly happy with.
I am now a convert to FPTP, as I believe this offers more chance of stronger government, who can try to achieve their manifesto commitments.
@ R Huckle
“I am now a convert to FPTP, as I believe this offers more chance of stronger government, who can try to achieve their manifesto commitments.”
i.e. You want a government supported by a minority of the electorate shoving policies down everyone else’s throats and wrecking our economy as they favour their own special interest groups.
I really hope that whoever is elected next to take total control for five years on that totally unrepresentative basis is the party you don’t want in government and that they enact a series of laws that damage your interests.
Incidentally, the No campaign seems to have adopted the tactic of spreading outright lies. Where do they get their fictional £250m? It is just a downright falsehood.
Robert C.
Point is that if government swings left and right in politics, you achieve a balance over a period of time. With coalition politics, you end up with third party dictating too much and end up with a coalition agreement that was not voted for.
FTPT?
could be better than either :-)
I think that this tie is not really a tie because any time a voter initiative is below 50%, it has to be considered trailing. By this logic, a poll showing a referendum leading 40%-20% is far less safe than a poll showing a referendum leading 51%-47%.
With that said, there is too little information on UK referendums to know whether typical referendum voting patterns would exist.
Interesting comments from Roy Hattersley on the AV vote at his lecture in Newcastle on Tuesday night. While being a supportter of AV, but still wanting a more proportional system in the future. He was of the opinion that even with the then most recent poll showing AV with a lead, that the No vote would still win.
On the politics of the vote and its effects on the government he was supportive of the general concept of PR as he feels that there is a natural progressive majority in the electorate and as a consequence Labour and the Liberal elements of the LibDems would be forced to combine to get their shared values into statute.
The reason for a lot of the opposition to the AV vote with in Labour he felt was down to simple politics. If AV is successful the LibDems can regain support for their position in the government but if they lose then the whole reason for their support of Tory polices will be lost. As aresult Labour supporters who may be inclined to support AV wil vote against to inflict damage on the Lib Dems with a view to their short term political gain.
If you accept this then the only way in which a vote on AV can be won is if it is introduced by a oarty with a large majority under the FPTP system, which they are less likely to do as they have just won on that system.
I will be voting against AV. FPTP has its faults, but so does AV.
IMO AV will distort voting intentions.
People should be able to vote for who they want in office, not who they don’t want or who they least want.
With the passing of the Bill, I think the No campaign will now really get under way. The prospect of giving NC a smack will attract many to vote against AV.
Frankly, I don’t understand why LDs want AV.
@Mike N
“IMO AV will distort voting intentions. People should be able to vote for who they want in office, not who they don’t want or who they least want.”
But people do vote according to who they least want. Some say that is the most powerful motivator in voting. Tactical voting is rife under FPTP and that is the biggest distortion in voting intention. People say things like “I’d really like to vote for you, but if I do, XXXX might win. So I’ll vote for the other lot to keep XXXX out.”
AV allows you to vote for who you want first and allows you to vote tactically second. It lets you put UKIP first and Conservative second, or Green first and Lib Dem second or SNP first and Labour Second if that’s what you want. It allows voters to better express their voting intention than FPTP.
Colin Green
I understand what you’re saying. But as you rightly point out AV “allows you to vote tactically second”.
I’m not persuaded by this ‘feature’ of AV. It’s just as bad as FPTP, IMO.
Stop AV, and let’s bring on PR.