Sunday Polls

There are three new polls in the Sunday papers, though in only partial figures are available (or at least, only partial figures are available online). I shall write up fuller reports in the week when the tables are out.

Until then, a new YouGov poll in the Sunday Times shows the SNP level with Labour in voting intention for the Scottish Parliament. On the constituency vote the SNP are on 29% to Labour’s 30%, on the regional list vote they lead Lavbour 29% to 27%. The Conservatives were at 14% in both votes, and Tommy Sheridan’s new Solidarity party was at 1% and 2%. Figures for the Lib Dems and Greens aren’t available online. The Liberal Democrats were at 18% in the constituency vote, and 15% in the list vote.

A slight plurality of Scottish voters now favour independence – 44% to 42%.

Meanwhile there are some figures from MORI’s monthly political monitor in the Observer. No voting intention figures seem to be available, and note that these were conducted between the 31st August and 6th September, so the vast majority of the interviews would have been before the leadership row.

Respondents were asked about whether several words and phrases could be applied to Gordon Brown. The normal pattern emerges – Brown is seen as understanding world problems (by 22% of people) and having sound judgement (by 24%), but falls down on his personality (only 8% think he has a lot of personality) and being patriotic (only 12%). Also 24% of people think he is out of touch. (The relatively low figures here are because people were asked to select all that apply from a list, you get far fewer responses than if you asked directly “do you think Gordon Brown is X”). On most of the measures Brown is seen far more positively than Blair – 51% of people, for example, see Blair as out of touch. The exception is being seen as a capable leader (17% for Brown, 25% for Blair) and, once again, personalirty (8% for Brown, 22% for Blair). As far as I can tell MORI have not yet asked their list of leader attributes about David Cameron.

Incidentally, the PA report of the MORI poll is rather misleading – Blair’s popularity hasn’t fallen. His net approval rating this month of minus 40 is actually up from minus 44 in MORI’s last poll. Saying that Blair is “now more unpopular than Margaret Thatcher at the same stage in her premiership” does also rather depend what you think is the “same stage in her premiership” – 16 months into her third term she was doing slightly better, but she recorded figures worse than minus 40 in her final year as PM, managing minus 56 at one point.

Finally there is a BPIX poll in the Mail on Sunday which gives voting intentions (with changes from their last poll in July) of CON 40%(-1), LAB 30%(-1), LDEM 14%(-1).


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