There is a new ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday. Topline figures with changes from the last online ComRes poll a month ago are CON 36%(nc), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 11%(+1), Others 11%(-3). As regular readers will know, ComRes carry out online polls for the Independent on Sunday, and telephone polls for the Independent. It is starting to look as if the different modes are producing different results for ComRes – their online polls are tending to show signficiantly smaller leads for Labour than their telephone polls.

As well as the normal voting intention question ComRes also agree/disagree on some statements about cuts which showed the normal trend towards people thinking the cuts are unfair and too fast.

There was was also a question on voting intention in the AV referendum. The Indy had been tweeting about this being a “surprising” poll, showing don’t knows making their minds, with that in mind, there isn’t really a big change since ComRes asked the same question a month ago. 40% say yes in response to the question that will be on the paper (up 4), 30% say no in response to the question (no change), 30% said don’t know (down by 4).

As we know, there’s a noticable difference between the results produced by the YouGov question that summarises the systems and asks how people would vote in the referendum, and the question here that asks people to say yes or no to the question that will be asked in the referendum. However, it is notable that both questions have shown a significant shift towards AV over the last fortnight. Momentum seems to have shifted in YES campaign’s direction.


26 Responses to “ComRes shows 10 point lead for YES”

  1. The last Angus had blues trailing by 11%…. now its 6%
    The last ComR had blues trailing by 9%.. now its 6%

    Hmm..

  2. A shift from don’t knows to Yes echoes YouGov’s improvement in the Yes vote. Could this be voters not liking the No campaign’s tactic of playing the man not the ball?

    ComRes are also showing a widening lead by Labour over Conservative and a small recovery in LD VI. It seems to be a hardening trend.

  3. The Green Benches,

    You quote the last ComRes where Anthony is quoting the last online ComRes. Does the online panel give different results to a phone poll?

  4. “their online polls are tending to show signficiantly smaller leads for Labour than their telephone polls”

    Otherwise known as the “Have Your Say effect”?

  5. Colin G,

    Anthony differentiates…I don’t.

  6. Colin – increasingly it appears they do.

  7. Maybe the companies are beginning to get to grips with their weighting and past vote recall in the “new politics environment” and maybe all the companies will begin to settle around the 7% Lab lead mark?

  8. Colin – we’ve had the regular cycle of online and phone polls from ComRes now for four months. Still not a vast number of cases of course, but so far on average their online polls are showing a Labour lead 2.5 points lower.

    On that basis it would be somewhat unwise to look at a ComRes phone poll with a lead of 9 points and a ComRes online poll with a lead of 6 points and go away with the idea that the lead had fallen.

  9. the polls to me appear pretty settled now but the other questions asked by Comres are very negative for the Blue/yellow side

    and they will only get worse as the cuts come in, at least Ken was honest and that is good to see

  10. Anthony,

    Good point, and I fully accept.. In terms of retrospective analysis of these polls… analysts are going to be mighty confused in forthcoming years… since I dont think anyone keeps a track record of which is which eg telephone or online… thus how historically will someone in the future differentiate?

    I ask this because Mori have in the past used “panels” and ICM have in the past consulted an “online” panel…

    Its the ability to accurately record all this, as opposed to whether or not online/offline produces different results that makes me wary about differentiating… Unless of course ComR fully switch to online..

  11. I’m sure someone round here must be keeping a list of ComRes polls with the online ones marked!

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention/communicate

    MORI and ICM’s archives are pretty clear about their respective switch overs from face-to-face to phone. I don’t think ICM have ever done an online poll with published *voting intention*.

  12. Anthony,

    D’oh! Sorry & Thanks.

  13. Anthony

    Do they pollsters explain all the issues about AV, before they ask the questions ?

  14. Well, what an amazing coincidence – the ‘not liked very much’ Ed Miliband comes out strongly for a Yes to AV & the polls shift in favour of a Yes vote.

    Ed, would you rather be popular or influential?
    8-)

  15. @ Éoin

    The last Angus had blues trailing by 11%…. now its 6%
    The last ComR had blues trailing by 9%.. now its 6%
    ———————————————————-
    Labour were never much more than 5 points ahead, as I have consistently commented.

    As Howard jokingly said: Why do we bother having polls when Amber knows it’s a 5 point lead that Labour has. ;-)

  16. I don’t think momentum is actually shifting here.

    If I remember correctly, YouGov showed the Yes vote at 38% and this poll shows the Yes vote at 40%. Now it’s dangerous to compare results between two different polls. But in these two polls the yes vote is only separated by 2%. And the best way to analyze whether a referendum is winning is not to look at the level of opposition but instead focus solely on the percentage the “yes” vote receives. My best guess is that the “yes” campaign cannot be said to be ahead until it reaches 50% or more.

    @ Eoin

    I think YouGov’s internet polls in the U.S. Senate elections last year were mostly accurate. A few of them were off but not all. And I think the internet polling could help deal with the problem of variation between cell phone and land line voters. (Btw, I’m sad because my favorite Scots-Irish Senator, Jim Webb (D-VA), is going to retire from the Senate rather than run for reelection. :(

  17. @ Amber Star

    “Labour were never much more than 5 points ahead, as I have consistently commented.”

    As many have pointed out, you are rarely wrong. But this poll shows a widening of Labour’s lead from 4%-6%.

  18. Anthony – the recent polling tabkle shows AR as having cons at 35% whilst the thread header has 5%. Is this a a rounding thing or a typo?
    Mkes little difference to the General picture Lab lead 6-7% over Con and LD nching up from Nadir.

  19. sorry terrible typing but what I mean clear hopefully.

  20. @ SoCaL

    Thanks :-)

    Indeed, you are correct, +2 is going in the right direction compared to their previous comparable poll. And, IMO, a solid 5 point lead is great for Labour at this point in the electoral cycle, so I am not intending to rain on the parade when I say it is +5.
    8-)

  21. new thread with new You Guv

  22. I think that I am right in that there are no local government elections in London on May 5th, it is therefore highly likely that the turn out will be very low. Is this being factored into the polling on AV?

  23. I wonder if the AV ‘Yes vote’, is down to the stalling tactics in the lords. With it being in the news, it may have got the don’t knows interested in it…

  24. ‘ALAN RABY
    I wonder if the AV ‘Yes vote’, is down to the stalling tactics in the lords. With it being in the news, it may have got the don’t knows interested in it…

    No. Try that as local question with your neighbours. No-one has heard of it.

    Mind you I think a yes vote is the only way to make this country sane. So it wont pass as this country is merely an historic theme park. Change is rejected a a matter of principle.

  25. ‘JONB
    I think that I am right in that there are no local government elections in London on May 5th, it is therefore highly likely that the turn out will be very low. Is this being factored into the polling on AV?

    Hopefully. Such a situation would mean that minor parties who would get a real benefit from AV will turn out. Normal tribal loyalties, let me not think people may sleep in.

    Why is it good? Minor parties with AV can have people actually voting for them at their real strength. With the current FPTP people cant do that as a vote for their real party means they might let someone they hate in so they have to vote for a candidate they dialke but not dislke as much as others.

    AV means the person who wins has more people supporting them. Governments with AV actually have the majority of people liking them (at least compared with the alternative.

    Nice change from the current situation where the majority of people have always voted against the government but they still get into power.

    FPTP is nearly as silly as old Egypt. And throw in an unelected Upper House…