Tonight’s daily YouGov/Sun poll has voting intentions of CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%. Very much in line with the Labour lead of seven points or so that seems to have been establishing itself in YouGov’s daily polls over the last week.


99 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 36, LAB 43, LDEM 10”

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  1. @William

    “Labour will win the next election and the Tories will win the won after that and so the pattern will continue.”

    This reminded me of a History Teacher my school advocating the same theory.

    It must have been early 1983 and he predicted a Labour Victory as alternating election wins had been the pattern since the 1960s.

    Can’t help wondering how different this country would now be if his theory was correct.

  2. The split with the SDP changed that. We might be back to something like a two party system again (in England, he added hurriedly).

  3. Just out of interest – this quote from Cameron yesterday:

    “the big society bank will be taking £200m from Britain’s banks to put into the voluntary sector.”

    Note the interesting use of the phrase ‘taking…..from British banks….’

    And this from the Merlin agreement:

    “Fourth, they will support the establishment of the Big Society Bank to act as a sustainable provider of wholesale finance to social investment intermediaries, including, subject to objectives, business plan and structure, the injection, on a commercial basis, of £200 million of capital (and, thereby, funding) over two years, commencing in 2011.”

    Note the use of the phrase ‘…on a commercial basis…’

    In other words, the money has not been ‘taken from’ the banks – it’s being made available for loan at compatitive rates. Or put another way, banks will be seeking profits from the Big Society bank finance deal. Not quite the impression Cameron seemed to want to project.

  4. Three things this morning…

    1. Yes 2 AV are trying organise live TV debates on the merits of AV with the No camp.. I’ update you on how that goes… [Kinnock joined the yes camp today]

    2. This very cute wee video explains AV very well I think for those not quite sure how it works
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7ydAowkesA

    3. I now have 10 MPs backing my campaign to lower the voting age to 16.. if anyone has an MP they think might be interested could you let me know..

  5. Seems that the polls are starting to mirror the emergence of some public Lib Dem discontent with the Government.

    In last night’s YouGov, of the 10% remaining Lib Dems, 44% disapprove of the Government’s record compared to 42% who approve. First time the balance has been one of net disapproval.

  6. Phil,

    Well spotted… That will be a logical development of growing LD support… I expect that to reach two-thirds before long..

    What we are now seeing is voters differentiating between blue and yellow… Vincey’s tapes achived that I think since yellow recovery seems to have began then… the synominity of the coalition parties is broken…

    My bet that yellows will get 18% at the next election is looking good I think..

  7. Gary G
    ‘I knew many people who supported Labour in 1997 and slowly moved over to the LibDems’

    I want to recommend you to Anthony’s piece but it seems to have disappeared.

  8. What piece? I’m sure I can drag it out!

  9. I judge that Ed Miliband read and, so far has, digested the Fabian article which you kindly provided Anthony.

  10. AW The one about quoting anecdote and other misreadings of polling trends

  11. Howard – you don’t mean Too Frequently Asked Questions?

  12. Phil/Eoin,

    If we accept the LDs went down as low as 8% but now have recovered to 10% the vast majority of the 2% will be supporters who do not like the Coalition and moved temporarily to DK or another party.
    On moving their VI back they will increase the %age of LD supporters disapproving of the Government. A recovery in LD VI (FWIW – I think 15 not 18) may include a few be former desserters won over by the Coalition but most at least initially will be returnees encouraged by the ‘moderating the cons’ message etc as Eoins states kick started by the Cable (and others) tapes.
    Hence the anomaly predicted of a governing parties VI increasing whilst the level of disapproval of the Government amongst that support increases also, probably exponentially.
    If this LD support does not like the Government but thinks it would be mucu much worse without the LDs involvement it is not necessarily a bad thing for them.
    Also the LDs leadership would may expect for this to change over the parliament as they hope’ judge on fairness over 5 years’ works.

  13. I think if the LD’s want above 15% next time they’ll need a different leader. A lot of the vitriol is coming from students directed at clegg personally. Perhaps someone else would do better.

  14. @JimJam, @Eoin/TGB
    To take any possible impact of fluctuating vote share out of the equation, here is the balance of LibDem supporters’ approval/disapproval of the Government in every one of the polls in which they scored 10% over the past month:
    8/9 Feb +44,-46
    7/8 Feb +42,-34
    25/6 Jan +55,-26
    24/5 Jan +55,-20
    19/20 Jan +53,-30
    6/7 Jam +52,-30

    Seems a pretty big shift to me.

  15. Jim,

    Yes I agree with all of that.. Everytime DC faces a q from his own back benchers on Hositpals, high speed Rail, Mandatory sentencing, Trident, Europe, it reinforces the fact that the fulcrum of the blue party is to the right of the PM’s current trajectory…

    the question noone can provide the anser to is wether it is yellow dictating that more moderate trajectory, or indeed whether it is the PM’s more moderate tendancies being allowed to flourish under the cover of supposed necessity of keeping LDs on board…

    There are days when the righties beat their chests a little louder, or indeed days when Cammo/GO allow one ot obtain the impression that they are more to the right than they would have you believe… but deciding whether or not those days are simply dog whistles is difficult.. but those days are exceptions rather than the rule

    Thus, for me at least, the default paradigm for DC in my view aint that different to Blair.

  16. Phil,

    Picking one crossbreak on one day might not be the best wway… it would be an arduous task but eekly/monthly averages might give you a better indication…

    Aside from all that, the trend you point to I think is 100% correct.. I just wouldn’t get bogged down on one particular day’s figures…

  17. @Alex

    That is very interesting piece of research and analysis about the Bank Agreement and perhaps later on Labour and some left-wing LibDem’s will use that to their advantage. Although if I was Labour I would keep quiet until 2014-15 because the Tories seem to take a habbit that when Labour say “you contradict yourselfs” “this goes agaisnt the publics will” the Tories almost instantly make a U-turn. Labour has got to learn not to keep vocally it’s opposition too much.

    Anyway, Alex, why don’t you join me in my new Media Enterprise. I hope to become the “liberal-face” of Rupert Murdoch….sleazy, sensationalist and influentional but with a Liberal set of views LOL. Nah, but it would be great if us Liberal-minded people would have our own Rupert Murdoch to compete agaisnt. I guess we are not that sleazy in the media world : ( LOL

  18. Anthony – yes!
    (I included) from time to time.

    However I asked down the pub and nobody had heard of AW, so he’s not that influential.

  19. Considering the polls just before the debates, the Conservatives were struggling to get beyond a single-figure majority, probably more likely a minority government surviving by the skin of its teeth. I doubt they would have been noticably more right leaning under such circumstances than the situation we have now.

  20. Howard – your pub is clearly unrepresentative. In my local loads of people know who I am.

  21. Phil

    I’ve been trying to post on this for a couple of days, but my computer has been refusing to find the site for me most times (DNS problems I think). So apologies if anyone missed me – no I thought not.

    The Lib Dem approval figures for Government Approval have been pretty stable for the past six months in the lower to mid fifties, with the remainder split between opposition and don’t know.

    These percentages continued to remain roughly constant as the Lib Dem share of the overall vote fell all the way to 8-9%. Of course as the number of Lib Dems decreased the approval figure varied more with the smaller sample size; sometimes up to the low sixties, very occasionally dropping below 50%.

    This was completely counter-intuitive because you would think that the lower the Lib Dem vote went, the more likely the remaining diehards would be to support the government. The failure for this to happen may be because of the very low numbers of ‘Orange Book’ Lib Dems there actually are in the country – perhaps only the fifth of the current ones who support things like the forestry sell-off.

    However this steady pattern of limited government support has been broken since the start of the month. Of the seven YouGov polls since then, every one was below 50% except one at 50% exactly. Contrast that with the seven polls before when only two were below 50% (one 49%). And, as you have noted, today’s poll is the first with more disapproval than approval (with don’t knows at a record low).

    The (very) modest recovery in the overall Lib Dem figures do not explain this, even if every one of the new Lib Dem voters was a disapprover the figure would be higher.

    This is very bad news for Clegg. It suggests that even loyal voters are becoming impatient with him and that will be even truer of the activists. Oakeshott’s sacking and the letter from the Lib Dem council leaders are another indication. The next few months will be make or break for him – probably the latter.

  22. @ANTHONY WELLS

    You should not say that too loudly, sounds like you are in there a LOT :-)

  23. Roger- I missed ya :)

  24. Hold on to your hats – I’ve just listened to a Middle east analyst on R4 suggesting that events in Egypt represent the end of the US empire in this region and could lead to a complete reappraisal by the US about what they are doing there and whether they need the alliances, both Arab and Israeli. The implication was that the close Israeli alliance would no longer be required as the whole regions relationship structure with America changed.

    At risk of meeting Neil A’s fate on this topic in a recent thread, I’ve often thought that if Israel’s neighbours had the capacity to shoot down F16s or blow up Abrahams tanks, we would have reached a peace settlement years ago. The current overwhelming military imbalance also creates a major diplomatic imbalance. Remove American influence and I wonder if we would see a rapid shift towards a peace deal?

  25. @Anthony:

    I’m sure if you’re well known in your Local it’s nothing to do buying rounds….but if it is…. mine is….

    Anyway fear not if the pub isn’t properly representitive have a word with the coalition and I’m sure they can can’t sort out any inequities by moving part of your bar into another one where you’re under-represesented….

  26. @Alec

    Unless the US has discovered a substitute for oil I doubt they’ll be pulling out of the Middle East anytime soon.

  27. @Wolf – the thinking seems to be more along the lines of not treating specific regimes as special. There is a feeling that with increasing signs that bottom up revolutions can just happen, possibly due to the internet and modern social media etc, it is increasingly hard to control events and being so closely tied to a specific regime doesn’t now mean you can prop it up regardless but if you do try, it could cause problems for you when it falls.

    There’s no question that they will still want oil, but I think they are looking at being much less tied up with the types of regimes there.

  28. Just listening to Lords debate and they are making a point (both Tories and Labour Lords) about the house of lords numbers rising to 800 under the coalition while parliament numbers going down to 600.

  29. Persisting reports about Mubarak resigning within the hour. Thousands of people in Liberation Square awaiting the announcement.

  30. Gary Gatter

    Did I hear the announcement in the HoL correctly – that for these people to vote they have to “Clear the Bar”?

    Makes Anthony’s long sojourns in his local (recently renamed “The Online Pole”) trivial by comparison.

  31. @Alec,

    I think there is certainly scope for a reassessment of US strategy in the Middle East, but I very much doubt that it will involve removing support for Israel. I think the US will watch and wait, and hope desperately that the net effect of the revolutionary mood is a range of reasonably moderate, secular regimes (maybe even democratic ones). If that happens, and the concerns about Islamist expansion recede, I think overtures will be made to the New Order and the pact with Israel will be relegated in importance. But only then. Obama is far too shrewd to put the cart before the horse.

    If the geopolitical environment once the revolutions have all come and gone is as hostile, or even more hostile, to Israel than the old one then I think you’ll see even more support for Israel, regardless of what further infringements that emboldens the Israeli government to pursue.

    At the moment Israel is sort of able to hold Arab militarism to its own head and say to the US “keep supporting us or the bunny gets it”. If the US ceases to believe that the bunny is in danger, then they will be far more able to trade continued support for concessions on settlements, the “peace wall” etc.

  32. Certainly looks like Mubarak is about to go. The army is positioning itself carefully in support of the “people”, and the pro-Mubarak politicians seem to realise that the only way they can be involved in a transitional government is without him. Given the interventions from the Saudi King I can see Mubarak heading to Riyadh, his deputy taking over on a limited mandate to form a national unity government with fresh elections, and the US lobbying as hard as it can (without becoming counter-productive) for the compromise, partly out of concern for its own interests, partly out of concern for the welfare of Egyptians, but mostly so as not to annoy the Saudis.

    Then the end game will be all about whether Mubarak going appeases the protesters and whether they are willing to stomach relatively gradual progress under a government that includes some politicians that have a share in the responsibility for the human rights violations that have been seen during the unrest.

  33. Neil A

    Have you changed your stance on Coulsongate yet? It is looking a lot like the Met did anything but investigate the original evidence.

  34. NickP

    It may well be that a police force in England’s capital city failed to investigate with due diligence allegations made against a major media company.

    I wouldn’t like anyone to think that the police in Scotland’s capital city are any different.

    Following the Sheridan trial, BBC Scotland showed police tapes of interviews with his wife in which they asked her why she was using IRA/PIRA techniques (after they had removed her rosary beads).

    All agencies, including (indeed mainly) Lothian & Borders Police have been asked by journalists and MSPs how this property was given to the BBC. All have denied any official release to the BBC. Therefore, the tapes were received by the BBC from someone who obtained them through theft or breach of trust.

    The Criminal Law (Consolidation) (Scotland) Act 1995 states that –

    “Criminal resetting of property shall not be limited to the receiving of property taken by theft or robbery, but shall extend to the receiving of property appropriated by breach of trust and embezzlement and by falsehood, fraud and wilful imposition.”

    It is difficult to see how the BBC could possibly be anything other than guilty of reset by virtue of admitting (by broadcasting) that they had received property that the official custodians of the tapes deny were ever officially released to the BBC.

    Since FOI doesn’t apply to the BBC on most aspects of their work, we will never know.

    The key investigative journalist, Kenneth Roy, has however reached a conclusion –

    “No one leaked the tapes to BBC Scotland. All hands are clean. Everyone is innocent. Integrity and professionalism? You got it. So how did the tapes reach Pacific Quay? I know. It happened at Christmas. It was a miracle.”

  35. ROGER MEXICO

    I thought your recent comment was very pertinent and I agree with your final point that the next few months could well be ‘break’ rather than ‘make’ for Clegg.

    Also, I don’t thing I’m alone in thinking that Vince Cable’s behaviour (and not just the constituency surgery sting) is odd. On one hand he’s acting like a loyal Secretary of State wedded to the coalition, justifying policy u-turns, issuing fairly meaningless White Papers etc and on the other hand he’s giving the impression that he’s a sort of undercover opponent of various government activities as well as being the only senior member of the government who is trying to challenge Osborne.

    It’s going to make or break time for Cable soon as well – it’s just not tenable for him to go on behaving like this and maintain any credibilty.

  36. Well how stupid are we?

    We have just voted in parliament saying international law is wrong (a bit like the way Israel shoves its head in the sand). So Parliament has said its fine to be a criminal because they have voted for a criminal law.

    And now, because the parliament has said international law is wrong the taxpayer will have to pay out hundreds of millions of pounds.

    If you dont like the European Human Rights Court deal with issues of its jurisdiction, but whilst we are bound by it then we deal with and acept its legal ramifications.

    AS a country we are fools, again.

  37. Long live the new Egypt.

    So long as we and the USA stop funding anti-democratic regimes (oops, there goes nuclear Israel).

    The sooner we learn that the earlier we can support liberal democracies with middle classes the sooner we wont have extremist regimes like Iran happening.. But whilst Israel goes against international law and punishes all for the crimes of a few the more the problems occur.

  38. Egypt.

    Come on anyone involved with government here.

    Tell the Mubarak fool to go.

    He’s screwed the country for something like 45 billion pounds personal wealth. What a friend to the west.. Evyter company pays bribes there, including ours.

    If he doesn’t get a hint soon there will be a coup.

    And later Iranian Muslims will take over.

    If we get him to go now we have a chance to get a sensible moderate in.

    If we wait we get extremists..

  39. @jack

    It’s never as easy as that. Supporting regimes that politically give you an edge in certain areas is how the world works. During the Cold War, this type of political one up manship, was the method of winning vs Russia.

    Now the problem is China, who will also support a regime who give them an advantage.

    it will carry on like this until World peace happens (never)

    Alan Raby

  40. Jack

    “If we get him to go now we have a chance to get a sensible moderate in.

    If we wait we get extremists..”

    Unless you are Egyptian, the use of “we” would appear to be directly counter to any concept of democracy that I’ve heard of (apart from the Brit version of course).

  41. I hate html at times

  42. B

  43. OLDNAT
    Jack
    “If we get him to go now we have a chance to get a sensible moderate in.
    If we wait we get extremists..”
    Unless you are Egyptian, the use of “we” would appear to be directly counter to any concept of democracy that I’ve heard of (apart from the Brit version of course).

    Or I am speaking like all western governments for the last 30 years…

  44. ‘ALAN RABY
    @jack
    It’s never as easy as that. Supporting regimes that politically give you an edge in certain areas is how the world works’

    It may be how the world works in some areas. But equally it means you merely bottle up hatred and cause massive reaction when people can be free. I do not support propping up non-democratic governments.

    WE need to live by our ideals. Hypocrisy merely fuels anti-western hatred.

    If democratic govts had been allowed their time in Arabia since WW2 we would have had a much more peaceful world.

    Islamic extremism is caused by repression supported by Western Governments.

    Much easier to make a middle class with consumerist demands.

  45. Jack

    30 years? You’re talking to someone whose introduction to politics was Eden and Suez.

    Of course, my Dad remembered the Brits gassing the Kurds.

    That Imperialism (unless you’re Chinese) doesn’t work any more is the point.

  46. @NickP,

    On the information I’ve seen so far, it seems that what’s really changed in the Met investigation is a) a new definition of who is a potential victim (ie anyone mentioned in Mulcaire’s notes) and b) new emails relating to Edmondson supplied by News International c) it’s been given to a much better resourced department.

    I don’t really have a “stance” per se. But insofar as I have an opinion about the effectiveness of the original investigation, it hasn’t changed very much as a result of the new developments.

    I do think there is a much better chance of the full picture emerging now, though.

  47. OLDNAT
    I hate html at times

    You’ll recall that when Ed I had the same problem on BwB a couple of years ago, the only solution was for him to get his own post moderated.

  48. Neil A

    From the Guardian:

    The development represents Scotland Yard finally beginning to take the lid off the phone-hacking scandal. More than five years after they first started to investigate the illegal interception of voicemail messages by a private investigator working for the News of the World, the Met announced that its new inquiry would:

    • Review all the decisions made by their two previous inquiries.

    • Contact thousands of public figures who have never been told that their personal details were recorded by the private investigator.

    • Warn some public figures that they had previously been misled when they asked the Yard for information.

  49. Everytime a poll comes out I check Political Betting, and apply Smithson’s Golden rule, the better it is for Labour the less its mentioned on that site.

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