Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%. This equals the highest Labour lead YouGov have recorded since the election, and the lowest Tory share of the vote.
More important though is the trend we’re seeing. I always urge caution about polls showing new highs and lows, they are almost by definition outliers. Looking at the broader picture though there has been a substantial change in YouGov’s daily polls over the last week: between early January and the start of February YouGov’s daily poll was pretty consistent in showing Labour five points ahead, as you’d expect there was random variation either side of the norm, but it was pretty evenly spaced around that mid point.
Since the beginning of Febuary Labour has consistently recorded leads between 6 and 8 points in YouGov’s daily polls. Three out of those five polls have shown the Tories at below the level of support they received at the general election, whereas previously only one YouGov poll since the election had shown them below 37%. It looks as though there has been a small but genuine drop in Tory support over last week. In contrast, Lib Dem support seems to have bottomed out somewhat since start of 2011 – whereas the junior partners in the coalition took all the pain in 2010, Tory support is now starting to flag.