Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%. This equals the highest Labour lead YouGov have recorded since the election, and the lowest Tory share of the vote.

More important though is the trend we’re seeing. I always urge caution about polls showing new highs and lows, they are almost by definition outliers. Looking at the broader picture though there has been a substantial change in YouGov’s daily polls over the last week: between early January and the start of February YouGov’s daily poll was pretty consistent in showing Labour five points ahead, as you’d expect there was random variation either side of the norm, but it was pretty evenly spaced around that mid point.

Since the beginning of Febuary Labour has consistently recorded leads between 6 and 8 points in YouGov’s daily polls. Three out of those five polls have shown the Tories at below the level of support they received at the general election, whereas previously only one YouGov poll since the election had shown them below 37%. It looks as though there has been a small but genuine drop in Tory support over last week. In contrast, Lib Dem support seems to have bottomed out somewhat since start of 2011 – whereas the junior partners in the coalition took all the pain in 2010, Tory support is now starting to flag.

54 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – CON 35, LAB 43, LDEM 10”

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  1. I think the criticisms of government policies from various groups must resonate with most people and if they are asked which party they would vote for, they will be less enthusiastic for the Tories. BUT this does not mean in reality that they they would not vote for them at a GE. It depends what alternative policies are being offered by Labour.

    If the economy is looking in a bad state when the first quarters GDP figures are out and if the budget measures are unpopular, I could see the Tories drop to 30%. The Tories strategy of blaming the cuts situation on Labour is wearing a bit thin. Once you have been in goverment for awhile and people can see the economy sliding they will tend to blame the government.

  2. The forest sell of, while seemingly only a marginal issue, is actually one of the main issues that has the potential to damage the Tories – badly.

    There are many issues where the government have been criticised, but, at the end of the day the way people will ultimately vote (and indeed say they will vote) is often a selfish choice (and that goes for many supporters of ALL political parties).

    While the comfortable middle class may not like news that is coming out, ultimately, many of the things this government are doing will not hit them – or at least not hit them ENOUGH to change their vote.

    Also, the ‘othering’ that this government (and the papers that support them) are offering up, whether it’s ‘benefit scroungers’, ‘muslims’ or whatever, plays well to an audience of Conservative voters.

    The forest sell off is a different matter. The forests, rambling, walking, hiking etc. is something enjoyed by people from right across the political spectrum (and don’t forget the higher level of Tory support in rural areas).

    There are many soft-Tory voters that are keen on environmental charities and groups, and also heritage type groups.

    Many that usually bray for privatisation of just about everything will be up in arms about this.

    There is a certain truth to ‘it’s the economy, stupid!’, but, that also translates into people’s lives as well as livelihoods….for many that do not need to worry about money (or at least not much), this is something that will hit THEM.

  3. I would of thought the ‘multiculturalism is a failure’ speech would boost the Tories for a while, but not last as words are cheap and actions ……. very difficult to implement!

  4. I think the significance of forests is not that it is an important issue per se, but that it is an iconic issue. It is fairly simple to understand, and is clearly ideological. It resolves doubts in a way that bigger, complicated and messy issues can’t.

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