Populus’s monthly poll for the Times has voting intentions (with changes from July – there was no August Populus poll) of CON 36% (nc), LAB 32% (-2), LDEM 20% (+1). This is in line with the broad pattern shown by hte other pollsters last month – the Conservatives static while Labour fall slightly.

The poll also included the first hypothetical questions comparing how Gordon Brown would compare to alternative Labour leaders, we will no doubt get more and more of these as we approach Tony Blair’s resignation. Populus compared how people said they would vote if Gordon Brown were Labour leader, with how they said they would vote if John Reid were leader. The results were slightly unusual – the main difference seems to be in the “other” vote – but the bottom line seem to be that Reid would fare no better than Brown. With Brown as leader Labour would trail David Cameron’s Conservatives by 9 points (33% to 42%), with Reid as leader they would trail the Conservatives by 8 points (32% to 40%).

UPDATE: Figures are now available on Populus’s website. On the leaders ratings Tony Blair’s figures are actually substantially UP – from 4.21 in July to 4.63 this month. Of course, it could well be that July’s figures were just an anomoly, they were substantially lower than any other figure Blair has recorded. David Cameron’s rating rose to 5.20 from 4.98 in July, a departure from the downwards trend in his ratings that a lot of polls have recorded. Menzies Campbell’s average rating was 4.47, very marginally down from July.


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