Yesterday’s daily figures from the YouGov/Sun poll showed an eight point lead and I was duly sceptical, writing that it could yet just be an outlier and we could still really be looking at the five point Labour lead that YouGov’s daily poll has tended to show for the last three weeks. Today’s figures show CON 37%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, so once again a comparatively large Labour lead.

Of course it’s theoretically possible that it might just be two outliers in a row in the same direction…but it looks as though the Labour lead may be on the rise.


409 Responses to “YouGov show 7 point Labour lead”

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  1. @Hal

    Here is post 2.

    2) The Office for National Statistics RBS&LBG number (£1,300 billion[5])

    As you point out, the ONS do not have NAO’s luxury of ignoring LBG&RBS’s liabilities. As the UK’s holding is so large, international standards dictate that the LBG&RBS liabilities must be included, to prevent governmental fraud and enable international comparison. Normally, the LBG&RBS assets would counterbalance this, but because most of LBG&RBS’s assets are”illiquid”, they are not counted.[5]

    So the ONS £1,300 billion figure = LBG&RBS’s liabilities minus LBG&RBS’s liquid assets.[5]

    So we see that the ONS and NAO figures are measuring different things.

    We will deal with which should be preferred in the next post.

    Regards, Martyn

    [5]: h ttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/nojournal/rbs-lbg-article.pdf

  2. @Hal

    Here is post 3.

    3) Which should be used, the ONS or NAO figures?

    The simple answer is the ONS. In the end, it isn’t down to us. The UN, IMF, EU and Eurostat use ONS figures for the public debt. We can speak of the NAO figures if you like, or any other figures, but only the ONS public debt figures are taken as the official public debt figures. The ONS public debt figures are the public debt figures.

    To argue by analogy (and Amber will appreciate this): it’s like standing backstage at the X-Factor saying “I don’t care what Simon says, my darling sang like an angel”. But it doesn’t matter whether we think our darling sang like an angel: if Simon said she sang like a laryngitic heron, then she isn’t going to bootcamp, period. Similarly, it doesn’t matter whether we think the NAO figures are good or bad, if the ONS say the debt is so big, then the debt is so big, period.

    So we see that the ONS public debt figures are the the only ones that count because the ONS public debt figures are the only ones that are counted.

    To refresh our memories, according to the ONS, the net public debt including financial interventions is £2,322.7 billion,[6] equivalent to 154.9 per cent of GDP[6]

    Regards, Martyn

    [6]: h ttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/nojournal/rbs-lbg-article.pdf

  3. @TheGB

    I’m not arguing that issues relating to immigration/cultural diversity/etc should not be properly addressed by Lab (or anyone else). I’m simply arguing that, no matter what polls of voters’ subjective and ill-informed opinions may say, immigration as an issue had a negligible effect on the election.

    Re: Trafalgar Day

    Why is this an either/or? We have pretty much the smallest number of public holidays of any EU country. I don’t think calling it Trafalgar Day would be very politic though.

  4. Robin,

    It is you’re prerogative to believe that. Sure we’ll see in 2015.

  5. @ Neil A

    “I think the US experience is different, mainly because (almost) all of your cultures are imported and therefore exist on more or less the same basis. Most of your minority groups are pretty proud of their American status, and cleave more or less to the general consensus on what it means to be an American. Almost everyone learns English (or at least Spanish).

    It is not at all uncommon for entire streets in England to be populated by people who don’t speak much English, don’t consider themselves to be English, don’t have any English friends, wouldn’t consider marrying someone from anywhere except the correct caste from their mother country and bring up their children as if they were in their mother country.

    Personally I have three main opinions about the issue;

    1) It’s not such a big problem. Most of the people who aren’t well-integrated are nonetheless fairly decent and contribute to society.

    2) Cameron is right that there should be slightly less laissez-faire in dealing with issues that arise in these communities, but that should really be confined to areas where legal boundaries are crossed. There is a very real temptation to soft-pedal on issues like domestic violence, the education and treatment of children, homophobia etc which needs to be resisted. If an Imam commits a hate-crime through a microphone on a Friday, he should be arrested just the same as any shaven-haired thug on a street corner.

    3) Integration will occur naturally over time, despite the best efforts of cultural conservatives within minority communities. The main reason this hasn’t transformed those communities is the continued mass immigration which introduces new, unintegrated, members to the communities every year, making integration seem less necessary. Ironically these new immigrants aren’t usually any trouble themselves. None of our recent Islamist terrorist suspects have been recent immigrants. But better control of the numbers arriving would in my view bring about more integration.”

    Hmmm, I generally agree with these sentiments. You bring up an interesting issue with Spanish speaking in the U.S. In Miami, Spanish has become the first language spoken. I kinda have a problem with this. I don’t agree with “English only” policies or laws that have been enacted. But I do feel that in the U.S., English should be the primary language spoken and I don’t like the suggestion that segments of the population should not be taught English as a first language. It’s not about suppressing culture or forcing assimilation or even suggesting that one culture is inferior to another or even that English is a superior language or that Spanish is a bad language. It’s simply a matter that the overwhelming majority of people in the U.S. speak English as their first and primary language. And learning that language is a key to becoming full fledged members of society.

    As to the first point, I couldn’t say with any measure of accuracy whether I thought you were right or wrong, I will take your word for it.

    As to your second point, there is a difference between cultural norms and legal practice. The way I see it, cultural norms cannot be imposed by the government by the same legal practices that are applicable to all people regardless of cultural norms. Therefore, there are certain cultural traits that English people have (and Scots and Welsh have) and these cannot be shoved down the throats of immigrants who come from different cultures. This should be a matter of legal protection for individual rights. At the same time, people cannot ignore legal precedents because their culture is contradictory with the law of the land. So I think in this regard, we are in agreement.

    I agree with your third point as well. Integration does over time occur even in spite of the best efforts of some. One thing I’ve noticed is that Muslim terrorists who have attacked the United States are not from the United States. Some have spent some time here but they did so as students or temporary travelers. It’s also important to remember too that not all Muslims in the U.S. are from the Middle East or of Middle Eastern descent, a very large number are African Americans who converted to Islam (the two Muslims in Congress are both African Americans).

  6. @ Amber Star

    “Absolutely correct.

    BTW, I like your Democratic blue background.”

    I like it too, it’s a nice color. But I think I might have to change as it’ll get too confusing.

    @ Robert C

    “I think if you look at the record of multicultural harmony even between different types of christians in the British Isles, as well as between the different nationalities, it is hardly without its blemishes despite us living in the same islands for thousands of years and being racially indistinguishable.”

    That’s true. But I don’t think that negates the multicultural nature of the UK.

    @ Old Nat

    “In Scotland the coming wedding of a couple of ex-students here is a discretionary public holiday in exactly the same way as St Andrew’s Day (30 November) is.

    I think the Scottish Government was wise to make these decisions. Few here care about a Royal Wedding (OK Amber – tell me I’m wrong and you want a day off to see what her dress looks like). The weather on St Andrew’s Day is usually foul.”

    Why is there this obsession with the royal wedding anyway? As you describe, this is a wedding between a couple of ex-students. People say that certain celebrities and political families in the U.S. are “American Royalty.” I disagree with this assessment but even I did agree, we do not have public holidays for their weddings.

  7. @ Colin

    You’re welcome :)

    To be honest I was having such trouble finding it I was beginning to think I’d dreamed it.

  8. AmberStar @ Old Nat

    You are right to focus on the the NHS, and water.

    The history is different. Education too. These things are what makes Scotland more Socialist. The ignorance of Scottish history, geography, and population density diplayed by ivory tower policy makers is a large part of the reason for the growth of th SNP.

    The debate in England and in the “nationl” newspapers is irrelevant to Scotland. In Shetland it is about whether the council were right to reopen a school for one pupil. In Argyll, it is about closing three schools which have no pupils, and others where five-year-olds would have an hour’s commute each way.

    Choice? Faith Schools for predominately Catholic Barra?

    Oldnat

    We have learnd that Others are wasted vote in the constituency. The Socialists will not be back this time round, but the Greens might and that could be enough to change the Government. On the other hand lost LibDem votes break in favour of the SNP.

    The Cons are in an inexorable but very slow declineand can’t lose much for they have little to lose. Lost Conservative votes arn’t going to go to Labour, though they might go to LibDem.

    Altogether lost Con votes arn’t going to make much difference and even if LibDems didn’t stand in Glasgow constituencies at all, and all their voters voted SNP it would make little difference to the outcome.

  9. Refresh my memory: what did Baroness Warsi say about using the terms extremist and moderate in her speech on the 19th of January? Or was that a different Baroness Warsi?

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