A new YouGov poll for the Evening Standard shows voting intentions in London. The topline voting intention figures, with changes from how London voted at the last general election, are CON 39% (+7), LAB 31% (-8), LDEM 17% (-5), Others 13% (+6), representing a swing of seven and a half percent. If repeated at a General Election then, on the new boundaries, the Conservatives would win 36 seats in London,to Labour’s 31, including 14 seats that are currently notionally held by Labour. The London swing is slightly lower than that shown by YouGov’s aggregate figures last month.

The poll also asked questions on who would make the best leader of the main parties. Out of Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and John Reid, Brown was the preferred choice of 30% people, compared to 13% for Blair and 18%for Reid. This is the first question to directly compare preferences for Brown and Reid, unfortunately marred by the inclusion of Blair who won’t be an option when the Labour leadership does fall vacant. Amongst Labour voters though the preference for Brown over Reid is quite decisive – 48% for Brown compared to 9% for Reid (interestingly, amongst Conservative voters Reid is preferred to Brown by 28% to 19%. If there does end up being a leadership contest and Reid does end up being a contender, there is the possiblity that he could market himself as the man more capable of appealling to those voters who are drifting back towards the Conservatives).

For the Liberal Democrats Sir Menzies Campbell still trails behind his predecessor Charles Kennedy. 33% of people think Kennedy would make the best leader of the Lib Dems, compared to 19% who would prefer Campbell. Amongst Lib Dem voters Kennedy is preferred by 51% to Campbell’s 30%.

Finally (and a bit more frivolously, since she’s unlikely to make a comeback) as if on demand from a comment Mark Senior left on this blog after the last poll comparing Campbell to Kennedy (as far as I know it’s co-incidence. It’s certainly nothing to do with me!), YouGov asked people if they would prefer David Cameron as Conservative leader to Margaret Thatcher as she was in the 1980s. Overall David Cameron came out on top, the first choice of 34% compared to 24% for the 1980s version of Thatcher. Amonst London Labour and Lib Dem voters the preference was strongly for Cameron, amongst London Tories ther ewas still a yearning for the Mrs T of old – 1980s Mrs Thatcher was the choice of 46% compared to 42% for Cameron. 6% of London Tories would prefer David Davis as leader.

These are, of course, just London figures. Tomorrow’s Populus poll reportedly has some proper questions comparing Brown and Reid.


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