Two new polls tonight. YouGov have topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%. It’s a smaller Labour lead than usual, but I’d be surprised if this didn’t turn out to be an outlier from the normal Labour lead of 5% or so – time will tell.

Secondly we have a ComRes phone poll showing figures of CON 34%(nc), LAB 43%(+1), LDEM 10%(-2). Changes are from the last ComRes poll conducted on the telephone at the beginning of January, and show no significant change beyond the margin of error – though, for the record, this the biggest Labour lead ComRes have recorded since the general election.

Interestingly we have something of a contrast between pollsters now – ICM and YouGov have Labour leads of around 4/5 points (assuming today’s YouGov turns out to be something of an outlier), Angus Reid and MORI have Labour leads of 10 points or more, ComRes has a Labour lead almost as large.

80 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. Chris – those scatter graphs are across the whole period, so include the period of strong pro-Conservative bias pre-1970 or so, the period of roughly equal treatment from 1970-1992 and the period of strong pro-Labour bias from 1992 onwards.

  2. AW
    Your last comment is interesting. I expect you are familiar with the advice leaflet to retuning officers. I was surprised at the leniency available to voters. For instance ‘Tony Blair he’s the man for me’ next to the Labour candidate and no other mark was a valid vote IIRC.

    The criterion is apparently whether the voter’s intention is clear.

    I was surprised NickP had to ask that question. Clearly much education is still sorely needed. That’s why I prefer the poll question using only the AV wording. i doubt whether many voters will be any the wiser come the event.

  3. Dave Tasker,

    I am very glad to read your post. I have argued as much for a very long time, and it is nice to read someone in agreement. :) It reinforces the naivety in those who blame Gordon Brown for all of Labour’s electoral woes in May 2010.

  4. Dave Tasker,

    FYI, I cover the very point you make in detail here.

  5. @Mike N

    AV will not give the Lib Dems a share of seats anything like their share of votes, sadly, as it is not PR. Most of the predictions I’ve seen show a few more LD seats than FPTP.

    I’ve always liked the idea of preference voting, mostly because where I lived, the candidate I like is not the one most likely to beat the bad guys.

  6. I don’t mind AV but it does look like just a tweak of FPTP. Can’t see it making a seismic difference.

    It will be Yes or abstention, with the current leaning towards the latter.

    Unless I discover it will let the Tories in forever and that might tilt me towards the No camp.

  7. @NickP

    AV won’t let the Tories in forever. Given the pink colour of your replies I guess you’re pro Labour and anti Conservative. I’d go out on a limb and suggest that there are parties you’d rather win than the Tories if Labour didn’t win locally. Am I right? Then AV is for you. Put Labour 1st, then the others and miss out the Conservative. That way, if your candidate loses, your vote goes to someone better placed to beat the Tory. Similarly, if your candidate is running in 2nd place, the other anti-tory votes get transfered to you.

    For balance I should point out that it works the other way too.

  8. I wonder if it will boil down to Coalition supporters picking Can & Lib and The rest picking Lab & Green.

    Will Green make a great stride forward? If they pick up a great mass of Labour second places?

  9. nick p

    i can pledge!

    that i would never put the blues above the reds in my preferences, but they would both be a long way down

  10. greens would get my second pref or maybe my first if i was confident that my vote would end up with the libdem candidate

  11. @NickP

    I doubt I’d be putting the Tories well placed in my preferences, except perhaps to keep out the BNP. Coalition with the Tories happened because every other option was worse.

    As for the Greens, I suspect they’ll get a lot of first preferences from people who actually want them but have previously not wanted to “waste” their vote. Their count may go from the hundreds to the thousands in a lot of places. I doubt they’ll get more than a few seats.

  12. You couldn’t make it up….

    The man appointed by the prime minister to kickstart a revolution in citizen activism is to scale back his hours after discovering that working for free three days a week is incompatible with “having a life”.

    Lord Wei of Shoreditch, who was given a Tory peerage last year and a desk in the Cabinet Office as the “big society tsar”, is to reduce his hours on the project from three days a week to two, to allow him to see his family more and to take on other jobs to pay the bills.

  13. ha ha ha

    The Big Society stays at home with his kids.

  14. @Eoin & Davind Tasker – I recall posting that I thought the turning point came with Mandelson’s speech tothe Labour conference in October 2009.

    This wasn’t necessarily when the polls started to move, but I felt something had changed within Labour and from then on they at least started to put up a fight.

    January 2010 saw the Tories ‘Policy a Day Blizzard’ and that’s when things really started to fall apart for them.

    Aside from the Lib Dem spike after the debates I think the story has been of a slow Labour ascent for quite some time. We don’t feel this, as the 30% GE score just looked so bad, but had the GE been six months earlier it would probably have been even worse.

  15. Surely working two days a week without remuneration for the benefit of your fellow citizens is still pretty “Big Society”. I don’t know much about Lord Wei but isn’t his background in charities rather than big business? Perhaps he doesn’t have a personal fortune to supply the tens of thousands of pounds he needs to live in London.

  16. Just out of interest – security analysts are becoming increasingly concerned about tensions in the minority Shia eastern province of Saudi Arabia – home of the big oil fields. Unemployment is 42% among 20 – 24 year old males in Saudi.

    Keep your tanks topped up.

  17. @Neil A – you’re probably right, but it’s still quite funny just a couple of days after Clegg announced he’s knocking off at 3pm.

    May be ‘alarm clock Britain’ means the people who set the alarm for mid afternoon and go home?

  18. I didn’t catch the Clegg story. What time does he say he starts work?

    I suspect this is all about young families, but I don’t know the personal backgrounds of both men. They’re both of an age when they might have primary age children. I’ve never been that impressed by men who think that their working life is so grandiose and important that they can just phone in their parenting for year after year.

  19. @ Alec

    Clegg’s not knocking off after 3pm.

    Just because he doesn’t accept new, non-urgent work tasks after that doesn’t mean he doesn’t carry on the exisiting work he has accumulated so far. Seems pretty simple to me.

    Some people have deliberately gone out of their way to misinterpret and twist this story, including the journalist who wrote it.

  20. @Alec – Lay off Nick – he’s feeling “fragile”. :)

    I did read though that everything going to Cameron (167 office staff) gets copied to him, even though he has 157 fewer staff.

  21. “Perhaps he doesn’t have a personal fortune” – precisely.

    I’m sure few can have anything against a big society as a concept. Who doesn’t think it a good idea to help others in your community? It’s happening in my far from wealthy community right now, as it has been for decades.

    But it would carry just a tiny bit more credibility as an idea from this government if it wasn’t being rolled out simultaneously with savage cuts in public services and jobs.

  22. @Alec

    You fell for the tabloid spin then? The civil service said his ministerial box is closed at 3:00pm so submissions have to arrive earlier than that. Clegg himself works late like every other MP.

  23. @ Alec

    Totally agree about Labour trend. If you look at the long term polling Labour has actually been in a recovery for 18 months, when it was at just over 20% at the height of the expenses scandal in Mid 2009. Since then it has been on a rising trend most of the time.

    Without actually having any policies or an appealing leadership, you have to give it to them, it’s quite an achievement.

  24. @ Jack
    “At the moment AV would help Labour get more as LD drop out first”

    Not anymore – the most recent data I have seen has the remaining Lib Dem voters splitting 4:1 in favour of the Tories, so they would be the beneficiaries where the Lib Dems drop out.

    @ NickP
    “Will Green make a great stride forward? If they pick up a great mass of Labour second places”

    Doubtful as they would only win seats where they polled ahead of Labour so that Labour drops out and the votes transfere to Green. In most constituencies Labour is still likely to be ahead of Green so they will never get to benefit from Labour 2nd preferences.

    Only real PR would give the Greens the level of representation they deserve. AV really is the “miserable little compromise” that Nick Clegg originally described it. as.

  25. @Robert C and Colin Green – I’ve just seen on the Telegraph website that anti AV Labour peers have tabled an amendment to ensure the polls won’t open in the AV referendum until after 3pm.

    All the Lib Dems will have gone home by then, so it would be a shoe in for the no campaign.

  26. Alec

    I presume that any such amendment is designed to win the prize for the stupidest parliamentary contribution of the year?

  27. Old Nat
    There are times when I don’t think you see the funny side

  28. OLDNAT

    I think the biggest figure in the SHS poll was the number that rated their colleagues as supportive and co-operative. They wern’t so enthusiastic about top management.

    If you are lying on a trolley in A&E, that’s a comforting thought.

    It’s mostly very impressive, and perinatal deaths at a record low too.

  29. Howard:

    When Denis Canavan, the long established, hard working and principled MP for Falkirk West was thrown out of the Labour party he got the highest personal vote and the largest majority in theScottish Parliament from electors many of whom rejected his far left views.

    The only two candidates in the first election whom I met, were standing for different other parties in other places and told me personally that they hoped he would get elected.

    When he retired, the SNP took the seat.

  30. @ Anthony Wells

    Thanks for the info! The report is a bit over my head, but that graph you seeked out is brilliant; I’ve saved it as I think I’ll be needing it in the future as well.

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