Tonight’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll – the only one I’m aware of so far in the Sunday papers – has got topline voting intention figures of CON 39%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%.

The Labour lead of around 5 points still seems very steady indeed – YouGov’s daily trackers has shown no obvious decline in government support from the negative GDP figures on Monday, my guess is that this is because it’s already priced into the market. The move from November’s neck-and-neck to December’s Labour lead of around 2-3 points to January’s lead of around 5 points is probably already down people getting more pessimistic about the cuts, the VAT rise, the economy and so on.

I’ll do a bigger update once the full tables are published tomorrow morning.


30 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – 39/43/8”

  1. of course the next big event will be the budget

    but the consequence of unforeseen events is now being played out as we see in Egypt and the oil price rises

    the more we see of that the more pressure on everything

    I fear for the next 12 months regardless of who would have been in control

  2. Lib Dem averaging 9% for 3 weeks now.

    Their so-called “recovery” (on YG) clearly halted.

    Labour again on 43.

  3. Another 8 for Lib Dem’s – very surprising!!! It’s as if they are being punished for the GDP figures

  4. ianrobo

    Yes Feb 3rd is the final vote, and we await the outcome.

  5. Anthony,

    I suspect it wil be a hard week for YG. Some pollsters have yellow on 15% and some habe blueys on 33%. Gees, its a gap and a half aint it?

    Your 37% blueys carried more authority, as I would veture to say ddi your yellow 10s..

    Saying that, in terms of recession reactions, I have checked the last Q1,2,3,4 announcments…. you probably wont be surprised to know that they barely impact upon the polls…

    but with Angus, Mori, ICM, Comres and Opinium all showing double figures for the yellas [sic], I think YG’s 8 looks a tad low…

  6. TGB

    “you probably wont be surprised to know that they barely impact upon the polls…”

    You mean that poll respondents aren’t reading the FT or watching Bloomberg before registering their VI?

    Quelle horreure!

  7. Oldn,

    You are asking me to use up all my restraint not to make the most obvious anti Scot-Gaelic joke around :)P

  8. sorry Old Nat, what vote is that ?

  9. TGB

    Your restraint has always been one of your more admirable attributes. :-)

  10. ianrobo

    The Scottish Budget vote. It’s the first significant decision to come along. did you mean something else?

  11. Angus Reid Sunday Express has

    Labour 43%
    Tories 32%
    LD’s 11%

  12. anything Oldnat could happen, the situation in the middle east, the TUC demo …

    do we take Angus Reid serious at parity ?

  13. R Huckle

    MOE difference?

  14. Sky news just reported what appears to be another Angus Reid poll

    This one for the Sunday Express tomorrow and with an **11 point** lead (43-32 missed the LD number sorry) rather than the 8 point AW reported on here the other day.

  15. As stated on another thread the GDP figures are part of the explanation for the labour leads that developed through the 4th quarter as people experienced the impact of negative growth.
    Eoins research demostrates that the figures themselves have little or no impact directly.
    My guess is the first quarter will grow and at a reasonable annualised rate, if January was negative at the same rate as Oct-Dec I think the lab lead would be widening even more by now.
    There’s a thought VI polls as a lead indicator of Economic performace data.
    Don’t underdstand why back to captcha?

  16. Ah- R Huckle heard the Lib Dem number!!

    11%- almost at YG levels- could ICM and Mori be overstating LD support.

    *Another 43* for Labour.

  17. I think AW is right in that the GDP figure is a reflection of the experiences that have already happened. The consumer confidence stuff is more immediate and the record drop here probably tells us more about whay polling changes might look like in the next few weeks. Having said that, I suspect a negative GDP in the current quarter could show in the polls. A proper recession after being told the economy was ‘out of the danger zone’ and just when tens of thousands of new faces hit the dole queues is the kind of thing that terminates government credibility.

  18. JimJam – “Don’t underdstand why back to captcha?”

    It means you’re logged out of the website – perhaps there’s a time limit on the cookie or something. Just click login again, log back in and the hated Captcha will be banished once more!

  19. Jim Jam

    “I think the lab lead would be widening even more by now”

    As history teaches us- there are no ‘massive’ leads under a two party system…

    Furthermore, note well also that the average governng party clawback/ turnaround over the last 31 years is 3% in the final 12 months.
    ***
    (using Ipsos Mori and UKPR archives)

    Incumbent lead 12 months out compared to subsequent GE (- denotes opposition lead)

    1979 lead average of polls 12 months out +1%; lead GE -7% = -8

    1983 lead average of polls 12 months out +20%; lead GE +16% =-4

    1987 lead average of polls 12 months out -4%; lead GE +11% = +15

    1992 lead average of polls 12 months out +3%; lead GE +8% = +5

    1997 lead average of polls 12 months out -19%; lead GE -13% = +6

    2001 lead average of polls 12 months out +11%; lead GE +9% = -2

    2005 lead average of polls 12 months out +4%; lead GE +3% = -1

    2010 lead average of polls 12 months out -18%; lead GE -7% = +11

  20. Alec – my view has always been that GDP figures themselves don’t make much difference… *except* if they provoke some major news story that creeps off the business news into the proper news.

    So if next quarter there is negative growth and the newspapers and media all run front page stories about Britain crashing back into a double-dip recession, I’d expect it to make a difference (though perhaps countered by the proportion of people who don’t know or care about the official definitions and think we are in recession anyway!).

    I thought it was possible that these figures we just got *might* have made a difference – after all, they did come out of the business news ghetto into proper news.

  21. rather 1979 is

    1979 lead average of polls 12 months out +1%; lead GE -7% = +8

  22. I like the Tories on 32%, so i don’t really mind how they ask the questions and work their figures out.

    Is that partisan ? Oops !!!!!!

    Th truth is that the coalitions policies are not popular with many and the economy is on the slide, so they are going to take a hit. Portilio said the other day that some Tories predicted that they would fall 15% behind Labour, but they didn’t mind being unpopular if their policies were seen to have been successful by the GE.

    So it seems the Tories are not bothered by opinion polls and the lady is not for turning. Cameron did say he was the son of Thatcher and the aire to Blair. Confused identity or did Tories perceive Tony as one of their own ?

  23. We saw the consumer confidence bomb this week, when that happens the govt are in trouble, are YG out of line ?

  24. R Huckle

    “I like the Tories on 32%, so i don’t really mind how they ask the questions and work their figures out.”

    I have to say- as someone who (rightly as it turned out) poured cold water on the huge Conservative leads that AR was showing January to April 2010- I’d love someone to have a go at explaining what they think is going on now that AR are showing very large Labour leads.

    ps right first time – in 1974 parliament (1979 election) Calaghan was 1% ahead 12 months out and lost by 7% to Thatcher: a -8% incumbancy turnaround. Sleep deprivation from a long flight !

  25. R Huckle

    The Tories might not care about polls (and local results) But they are in coalition.

    We might well get a siege mentality with ministers…but how will that play to the country?

  26. @Chris N – and as part of the Government, the Lib Dems should not take responsibility for the way the economy is going?????

  27. bill mac

    They will always get double bubble anger because they can always choose to walk away.

    The public see the double dip, get cross because they think it s incompetent and they (Con) were warned about it, think “how can we get rid” and then think “why don’t the Lib Dems do it?”

    So they end up more cross with the Libs.

  28. @Rob Sheffield – your analysis is interesting, but there is one key factor you’ve forgotten. in all of those elections the incumbent could choose the date of the election.

    In four of them they went early after 4 years – 83,87, 01 and 05, while in the remainder they ran the full 5 year term.

    This is critical, in that, whether they go long or short, PMs will seek the best position for their party and thus distort in their favour any swing back to the governing party. This holds even in years where your calculated swing back is negative.

    Cameron is legislating for a fixed term parliament, so next time the election will either happen when the coalition collapses or on the date pre ordained by legislation. Cameron will have lost control of the timing and I would imagine that any swing back to the incumbent will start to become less noticable over time.

    Cameron decided on fixed term parliaments for short term selfish reasons without thinking it through. Five years is significantly less democratic that a more conventional four year term in many other democracies, but he went for that thinking it would give him more time. He hasn’t thought about what it might do to the Tory party in twenty years time, or what happens if circumstances turn out differently than he is planning. [snip]

  29. Old Nat, if it was emphasised as English only , the forest sell off , would that make it any more acceptable?

  30. Chris, Another 8 for Lib Dem’s – very surprising!!! It’s as if they are being punished for the GDP figures

    Since the Libs are in government , it does seem reasonable that positive and negative effects resulting from the governemnt’s policy are refelcted in the polls.
    Some say, Tory-led but the government is Liberal- carried, and Liberal-supported. ood or bad, you can expect to take the consequences.