New YouGov Welsh poll

YouGov have published their monthly Welsh voting intention poll for ITV Wales. The topline figures are as follows:

Constituency vote: CON 21%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, Plaid 21%
Regional vote: CON 20%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 21%

Note that YouGov have switched over to using likelihood to vote weighting for the Welsh assembly question in advance of the election in March. This month that reduced Labour support by 2 points and increased Plaid support by 1 in both sections.

By my reckoning these figures, on a uniform swing and assuming Labour will get Blaenau Gwent back, Labour will win an overall majority with 31 seats, with Plaid on 14, the Conservatives on 10 and the Lib Dems 5.

53 Responses to “New YouGov Welsh poll”

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  1. old nat

    scotish GDP was +0.5 and you didn’t shout about it

    you really are too kind

    and very polite

  2. RiN

    I’m not really kind or polite – I just know that the Scottish figures take a long time to disentangle from the mess that Westminster calls “accounts”, so that our Q3 data comes out around the same time as the UK Q4.

    Additionally, Scotland has a different economic profile and it operates on a different cycle.

    I don’t like to compare cider and perry (my cousin makes strong versions of both, from my Grandad’s trees, so i never get a chance to compare appleas and pears). :-)

  3. Stuart Dickson

    You illustrate how regional all four main parties are. In Argyll there is a long term leakage from LibDem mainly to SNP but also to Lab for Westminster. In Ross, Skye an Inverness W a retiring LibDem with a huge personal vote from voters who vote SNP on the list will be replaced by a high profile SNP list MSP, but you will lose a seat on the list.

    Richard Lochhead is getting strong support where you aleady have enough votes and don’t need any more, and Gasgow will be red till the next ice age.

    There might not be much net change, but it doesn’t take much to change the government.

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