Tonight’s YouGov/Sun voting intention figures are CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 10%, Others 11%. It’s the second time we’ve seen Labour get a seven point lead, though it well within the margin of error of the five point Labour lead that seems to have become the underlying position in YouGov’s daily poll.

Also worth looking at are some questions about the NHS from yesterday’s YouGov poll. On the back of David Cameron’s statement about not wanting the NHS to be second best, we asked about the public’s perception of how the NHS compared to other the health services of other European countries – 29% thought the NHS was better than most other European countries, 23% that it was worse and 32% about the same.

Asked about whether they supported or opposed the government’s plans to restructure the NHS, people were pretty evenly split – 34% supported the policy, 37% opposed it. Unsurprisingly given that I doubt many of us who don’t work in the NHS have the faintest clue exactly how NHS trusts, GP consortiums or commissioning of health services in general work, 30% said they didn’t know.

More generally, asked how much they trusted the coalition government to deliver high quality NHS services only 36% said a lot or a little. 57% said not a lot or not at all.

104 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 36/43/10”

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  1. @Colin Green

    “I’ve plotted a graph of the poll numbers since November and they tell an interestin story. Labour and Conservative have been diverging steadily since mid december. It is quite marked. The Lib Dems do seem to have bottomed out, running an 8.5 average since the same time”

    @Gary Gatter

    “The Labour trend is still upward and the Tory trend is still downwards. The LibDems seem to have stabilized around 9%.”

    Good points from the both of you- thanks for these.

    Spot on- the last two months has seen Labour move from level pegging on average to being 6% on average in front.

    With the Lib Dems flatlining at 8/9% that only means one thing: a Conservative decline all of their own since late November/ early December.

    They *must* be getting worried now in CCHQ.

  2. Since there is no Yougov poll tonight, let’s take a look what happens in Germany and France.
    Germany, InfratestDimap, 21-1: SPD 28+ Green 19 = 47, OM for center-left alliance. CDU-CSU 34 + FDP 4 + 38, but in reality 34, because of the 5% threshold. LINKE 8%.
    Hamburg State Election (scheduled for 20-02): SPD 43 + Green 17 = 50, comfortable OM. CDU 26 + FDP 4 = 26 (see above why), LINKE 5.
    France, runoff scenarios for 2012. D. Strauss-Kahn 64%- N. Sarkozy 36% (Institutes CSA and BCA). M. Aubry 56% (CSA) or 55% (BVA) against NS 44-45.
    F. Hollande 55% (only CSA tests this scenario) – NS 45.
    Personally I find it hard to believe such disastrous figures for NS, it has never happened before, I think that he will partially recover, but it is almost impossible for him to reverse the tendency. The case of A. Merkel is even more enigmatic, because German economy is at very good shape, but there is an obvious “desamour” (un-loving), as we say in French, of a majority of voters towards her. Bottom line: In 2013 both Germany and France will very probably (I say this because in politics nothing is ever absolutely certain) have Socialist+Green governments.

  3. Errata in the previous post:
    (Re Germany) CDU-CSU 34 + FDP 4 = 38% (and not + 38, which is obviously nonsensical).
    (Re Hambourg) SPD 43 + Green 17 = 60% (and not 50%).
    (Re France): Institute BVA (and not BCA).

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