Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 43%, LDEM 9%. This is the biggest lead YouGov have shown for Labour so far this Parliament, and comes shortly after the ComRes poll earlier this week that showed an 8 point lead and results in YouGov’s polling on attitudes to cuts that suggest public opinion is turning increasingly against them.

The one caveat I would add is that don’t be too keen to look at the polls showing exciting results and ignore the dull ones. The exciting ones are no more likely to be correct – in fact, it’s pretty much the opposite! The main benefit of daily polls is that we have a constant flow of data that should allow us to look past the outliers and see the underlying picture, so while this seven point lead will get lots of attention, don’t forget that yesterday’s poll showed a Labour lead of just one point. Both would be in line with an underlying Labour lead of 3 or 4 points, which is what it showed the day before that. Alternatively, public opinion could be on the move.


172 Responses to “YouGov show 7 point Labour lead”

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  1. hei

    i’m capcha free!!

    free baby, free i tell you!!

    i very disappointed that old nat has been unmasked as a “david”. life has lost a bit of mystery

  2. Word of warning Hotmail sent anthony’s e-mail to junk, I had to retrieve it.

  3. Captcha free but I think I’d like a deeper red maybe Scarlet for my background not sure on pink

  4. RiN

    You’re free – I’m trapped in boring grey! I should really have the option of a saltire as a background. (hint, hint Anthony).

  5. Look right Old Nat ;)

  6. Old nat – not sure why yours isn’t showing. There is a nice SNP background, I’ll sort it out later on.

  7. Polling stations have been steady, now busy.

  8. Anthony

    But Scottish politics are multi-dimensional! While I currently support the SNP, I’ve also supported Labour (and the old Liberals) when those seemed best for Scotland.

    A saltire background would allow those of us who prioritise Scottish politics to flag that dominant aspect – and make it so much easier for others to pass over our posts! :-)

  9. Any last minute predictons for the Church of Militant Elvis?

  10. Well if the SNP logo isn’t showing because you haven’t picked it I’ll stop worrying about why it’s broken :)

  11. Roll on the ‘BE’ result- this comment brought to you with no registration/ nor “colour” ascribed….

  12. old nat

    i’m looking forward to you showing us your true colors

    register today (unless you feel that AW is BB)

  13. @Rob S: welcome back

    @Eoin/Green Benches. Ahh, Howard’s previous comment about “a green place” suddenly makes sense… :-)

    @Andy JS

    My O&S prediction (which is an average of the ICM/Populus polls)

    * Red 45%
    * Yellow 28%
    * Blue 17%
    * Grey 10%

    @Anthony

    You’ve had the place done, haven’t you… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  14. Anthony taking on from OldNat, maybe there could be (and I appreciate this is more work) as well as party backgrounds, looser allegiance backgrounds, like Scottish, Left wing etc.

  15. @ GrahamBC

    Yeah, I’ll probably have that problem when I come to registering my colour; I wish there was one for Old Labour.

  16. old nat

    your looking good baby

  17. craig

    one day in the 22nd century we will have PR and then there will be a background for old labour

  18. @ GrahamBC

    Perhaps a brighter red.

  19. To register your username has to be more than 3 characters, right? Like Goran I rather like having 3 characters :)

  20. Raf – I think your username does, but you don’t have to have your username as your display name. Set some other username, then put your actualy name in your profile as Raf, then choose to have it display your name as Raf.

  21. @AW

    Below the YouGov header I get the following text:

    —————————
    YouGov Voting Intention since 2005

    include “charts.php”;
    echo InsertChart ( “http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/charts.swf”, “http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/charts_library”, “http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/frontpagegraph_since2005.php?pollster=YouGov&uniqueID=” . uniqid(rand(),true), 500, 280,”000000″,true );
    ?>

    [Thanks – that’s odd. It means the site isn’t running the php code when you look at it. Not sure why that might be, I’ll have a look. Thanks – AW]

    [I think I’ve cracked it now – AW]

  22. @AW

    Yep, working now.

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