Two new polls tonight. YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%. These are pretty much in line with YouGov’s recent polls, a Labour lead of 3 points over the Conservatives, the Lib Dems on around 8-9% (YouGov tend to show the lowest Lib Dem figure of the regular pollsters, and consequentially their Conservative and Labour figures are both a bit higher, though the lead is normally in the same sort of area).

ComRes, meanwhile, has topline figures of CON 34%(-2), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 12% (nc). Changes are from the last poll ComRes conducted by telephone, at the tail end of November, rather than their parallel online polls they conduct for the Independent on Sunday. The eight point Labour lead is the largest lead Labour have secured so far this Parliament and the 34% is the lowest the Conservatives have scored. Angus Reid have given Labour some 5 and 6 point leads, and have shown the Conservatives at 35%, but have tended to show lower Conservative positions than other pollsters since the election. ICM, MORI and YouGov are typically showing Labour leads of around two or three points.

I’d add my normal caveat about being wary of polls showing something unusual until they are confirmed by further polls – other polls may comfirm it as the sign of a further drop in Tory support (though the YouGov daily poll doesn’t seem to be picking it up), or it may turn out to be a rogue.

In ComRes’s other questions – they found 58% disagreed with the statement that Britain was better off with a coalition government than a single party. 36% though Ed Miliband was proving a good leader of the Labour party with 42% disagreeing (figures for Clegg were 37% thinking he was doing a good job, 52% disagree. Finally 36% thought that Labour would do a better job than the coalition on the economy, but 54% disagreed.

69 Responses to “ComRes show 8 point Labour lead”

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  1. @Amber Star – “I hope they are both Okay, wherever (& whoever) they are.”

    On a hunch I flew to Las Vegas and had a long conversation with a cocktail waitress there, as usual, a few new leads but nothing conclusive.
    The hunt for the *real* Roland Haines goes on and I will keep you posted if there are any developments.

  2. @ Nick Poole. From one Keynsian to another: we do at present have negative real interest rates, which is one of the preconditions for balancing supply and demand in poor economic times. (At least the BoE base rate is negative in real terms.) As long as that continues I don’t see things getting too bad.

    The problem will arise if inflation falls or if the hawks at the BoE put rates up. Then demand really will fold and there will be no way back without Keynes as guide.

    I think you are right the coalition plan is for a credit boom after a mini-bust to put us back to where we were prior to 2007. But what if it is a larger bust and no boom? Followed by an energy supply crisis?

    Polling-wise we are in uncharted territory unless anyone can remember the 1970s, or 1930s. I suspect there isn’t the data, though.

  3. With the Liberal figures so low, current polling (if I’m right) gives them about ten to fifteen seats. Does anybody know, using universal swing, which seats these would be? If the Dems do get trounced to that degree at the GE, then the social dems/orange book dems split of the remaining is going to be crucial in determining their future direction, so it’d be interesting to look at which MPs are actually likely to be left.

  4. @Anthony is YouGov the only pollster showing the Tories above their election percentage of 36.1?

  5. the impression of rushed through, ill thought out policies is beginning to get more and more traction.Yet another U
    turn today on the rhetoric about bankers bonus payments.
    In the mean time the shadow of the Euro looms with rumours of a potential bailout for Portugal.

  6. @James Baillie

    Only in the sense of “will the Oranges end up becoming ‘Coalition Liberals'”, since the Liberal Democrat party is not ruled by it’s Parliamentary Party in the same way Labour and Conservatives are. I do not see the general Liberal Democrat party ever approving jettison of their left wing, unless the party is totally reshaped in Clegg’s image.

  7. Gary – the Conservatives got 37% at the election (36% is their share in the UK, but opinion polls only cover GB, so the correct comparison should be with that).

    YouGov and MORI currently show the Conservatives above that level, ICM at that level, ComRes and Angus Reid below it.

  8. Thanks Anthony

  9. But what they should NOT be doing is cutting jobs at all.

    You can argue about the welfare bill (I think what they are doing is pretty heartless). But the slashing of public sector jobs just seems to be a recipe for a long long stretch of economic doom.

  10. Nick – this isn’t a venue for discussing whether the government’s policies are good or bad, just what the polls suggest people think about them.

    Otherwise you’ll end up where Roland Haines got sent ;)

  11. @Anthony

    “Otherwise you’ll end up where Roland Haines got sent ”

    Was it the salt mines or a Khmer Rouge re-education camp that you sent him to??

    Because his disappearance from these pages seemed to co-incide with Anne Widdicombe being voted off Strictly Come Dancing, this re-inforced my hunch that he and Ms Widdicombe were, in fact, one and the same person. Accordingly, I’d just presumed that he had reverted to his original alter ego and was now content writing a rather illiberal column for the Daily Express.

  12. I don’t think Government policies are ever good or bad. They just have consequences…inculding upon the economy and the polls.

    As we have seen it is difficult to predict what those consequences will be.

    There seems to a new narrative building up…another Labour MP pleading guilty to expenses fraud, accusations that the Labour candidate lied about where she lived…

    will it change the result in O&S?

    It’s all fascinating.

    I will try not to be partisan!

  13. The polls will get bad for Tories. Then really bad and so on. Once the economy picks up as it will, the government will be back in the game. But all this speculation 4 years from GE is totally pointless . Just remember every person asked in these polls know there will not be a GE tomorrow. This might seem obvious. But this does have huge impact on answers. Come to crunch are the UK public going to go flooding back to Labour within 1year of their terrible election result , if they actually had to vote tomorrow ?

  14. I assume that is a rhetorical question?

  15. “Only in the sense of “will the Oranges end up becoming ‘Coalition Liberals’”, since the Liberal Democrat party is not ruled by it’s Parliamentary Party in the same way Labour and Conservatives are. I do not see the general Liberal Democrat party ever approving jettison of their left wing, unless the party is totally reshaped in Clegg’s image.”

    This is true, but the parliamentary party has a lot of influence nevertheless – if there were to be another hung parliament, and most of the remainder were social Liberals, Labour would get the deal; if Orange Bookers, it would probably be the Conservatives. The different wings of the party also have different key policy priorities, and of course in determining who is on the front bench it would be important. The Liberals rely to some extent on getting personalities out there in order to counterbalance their lack of clout media-wise. Who those people are, who might replace Clegg as leader (he could hardly stay after losing forty seats), and who would be more likely to gain the Liberals in a second hung parliament are all questions well worth looking at. Not least in terms of whether my first GE vote (which next election will be assuming they hold ’til 2015) goes to a Liberal party I think will be heading left or to a Grn/Lab candidate because I can’t stomach another neoliberal coalition.

    Re the main debate: I suspect things will go downhill for the conservatives, but I reckon it very much depends on Dave and Dave alone. Cameron’s personal reputation as a tough and intelligent leader, whether deserved or not, is holding his party up fairly well. It allows him to make a virtue of cuts which might otherwise be considered a real problem; the “are cuts necessary” questions bear out that he’s still winning that crucial argument. If he can keep persuading a plurality of people that he’s doing the only possible despite it not being pretty they’ll hold to a decent if not astronomic level of GE support. Ironically, many areas where the cuts will bite really truly hard due to thinner funds and more centralisation of resources to cope will still be Conservative seats simply due to tribal voting, such as out here in the East…

  16. I would be interested if anyone can come up with any sort of list, anyhow. In addition, are seats on UKPR’s calculator done on nationwide swing? If so, wouldn’t it be better to do it on regional swings? Playing around with the BBC’s old election seat calculator (which shows the Liberals keeping Montgomeryshire, so much for that idea) gives a lot of the safest Lib seats (6 of their last 11) as being Scottish – yet in Scotland the Liberal vote is hurting more than anywhere else if I’m right. Might this mean that in fact the Liberals will lose even more seats than predicted with these sorts of poll ratings?

  17. James Baaillie
    Orkney and Shetland is safe unless Labour challenge with a well known local personality.
    Kennedy’s seat is safe except it 100% certain won’t exist if boundary changes go through. (A nettled Lib Dem councillor did point out he would win one of the new seats…if he was the candidate wwhich means displacing a friend or Alexander)
    Sir Robert Smith Bart. is in with a shout if he can keep the locals convinced he is really the Tory candidate. If he stands, Ming is in with a strong shout on a personal basis. If he doesn’t stand, NE Fife up-hill. Very little hope for the others I would have thought

  18. James Baillie

    The Scottish samples are so small that any conclusions drawn from them are unsafe.

    Why would the LibDems suffer more in Scotland? Not on account of tuition fees in England, and my LibDem MP in Argyll voted against anyway.

    He is threatened more by the long term drift to the SNP in the constituency, given a further nudge by the comparison with the more active SNP MSP.

    The Conservative is the challenger, but in slow decline. and SNP:LAB divide lost Libem votes 2:1 so that SNP in 4tth place is set to overtake Labour.

    If these trends continue per diem, and the election was called on the right day, then all four parties could tie. ABT’s have a difficult decision.

  19. In 1945, the leader of the Liberals lost in Caithness to a Tory with Cons, Libs and Labour all within 100 votes.

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