YouGov have released their final Welsh poll of the year for ITV Wales (the final daily poll of the year for the Sun, incidentally, comes tonight). Welsh assembly voting intention figures with changes from last month are:

Constituency: CON 23%(+2), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 6%(-3), Plaid 21%(nc)
Regional: CON 22%(+2), LAB 42%(+1), LDEM 5%(-4), Plaid 21%(+1)

On a uniform swing (and making the fairly safe assumption that Labour will reclaim Blaenau Gwent) this would give Labour 30 seats in the Welsh Assembly, the Conservatives 15, Plaid 13 and the Liberal Democrats 2. The Lib Dems, incidentally, would no longer pick up any top-up seats, once you get down to 5% or so support the maths just doesn’t stack up. Amongst the others, UKIP were equal to the Lib Dems on 5% in the regional vote, but they wouldn’t get any seats either (on these figures they’d be closest to getting one in South Wales East).


22 Responses to “Latest YouGov Welsh Assembly figures”

  1. (low whistle)…woo, it’s looking bad for the Lab-Plaid alliance: with numbers that good, Red’d go for a minority administration.

    (incidentally, Blue in 2nd place? In Wales? Strange new world…)

    Regards, Martyn

  2. The South Central Wales regional numbers also show the Greens on 9%, well enough to be getting the first Green AM.

  3. Oh what a difference a year makes….

  4. Theres also the interesting sight of the Lib Dems polling the same as the communists in North Wales on the list. Could a push there give the communist party their first seat in Wales?

  5. I’m still betting on the big upset in Ynys Mon with Ieuan Wyn Jones losing to the Tory Druid blogger Paul Williams.

    IWJ has made enough enemies across the political spectrum and without Rogers to muddy the waters an upset is on the cards.

    Labour to form a government without the help of Plaid I think. Plaid’s vote may hold up in Carmarthen and Gwynedd but is going to fall away in the South. Why vote Plaid as a protest against Labour in Westminster Now they aren’t? Vote Plaid get Labour? May as well vote Labour!

  6. James – my projections are based on a uniform swing on the regional votes, rather than taking regional cross-breaks, whose sample sizes are too small to be reliable. If the Greens did get 9% in a region I think it would almost certainly get them a seat.

  7. @Anthony

    The Yougov report here (h ttp://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-ITVWales-DecemberPolling-221210.pdf ) is a fine example of the pollster’s art: carefully compiled, well presented, worthy of analysis.

    However, I do need to point out that “constituency” is spelt “constituency”, not “consituency”… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  8. Encouraging for Labour and the tories, mediocre for Plaid and disastrous for the lib dems.

    would the lib dems really go that low?! maybe they could paint themselves as an anti Lab-PC coalition vote?

  9. J H Jones,

    Got to agree about IWJ. How can he possibly hold on? He doesn’t even have a blog!

    There are litterally 10s of people who read his blog and at least 10% of those will be from the island. Surely that will be enough to beat one of the best know politicians in Wales who four years ago won with

    PC 10,653
    Ind 6,261
    Lab 4,681
    Con 3,480

    Since they could only manage 3rd at Westminster I’d be shocked if the tories can get 2nd at an Assembly election when a lot of traditional tories will not bother to vote.

    Instead of looking for gains the Tories will need to concentrate on holding off Labour in Preseli, Carmarthen West & South Pembs, Clwyd West and Cardiff North. The only possible chances are Vale of Glamorgan and against the Libs in Montgomeryshire and Brecon and Radnor (though wouldn’t be suprised if London HQ “advises” the Welsh Tories not to invest funds at targeting Lib Dem seats).

  10. Just checked the full tables if Lib got just a 1% swing to green it would leave them not 5th… but potentially 6th in the regional vote.

    If this keeps up until May this will be disastrous for the Liberal Democrats.

  11. Antony, that’s fair enough, subsamples are inadequate, but the previous YouGov had the Greens even better placed on 10%. Wouldn’t you say that was at least indicative of a Green hotspot?

  12. Wales is significant but not critical for Lib Dems but Scotland with 20% of their MPs is a different matter. We could see a near similar result in Scottish polling. Will anything be enough to see Kennedy and co jump or are they all going down with the ship?
    Interesting today to see Scottish Lib Dem leader come out and speak about how different the coalition experience had been with Labour. If the numbers add up he will be desperate for a Scottish deal

  13. I’m surprised Chrles Kennedy is not airing his views more and pretending to support the coalition. I would like to see another scottish poll. I would imagine the LDs are down to about 7%.

  14. Anthony
    The regional figures for Scotland in yougov have been erratic but straospheric. I know we can’t read too much in to this but… do they cumulatively tell us something?

  15. Barney – not really, no. Aggregating lots of them will solve issues of sample size, but it won’t weight them properly to Scottish demographics.

    GB polls are only weighted to be representative overall – the individual cross breaks within them are not necessarily representativel.

  16. @Martyn

    I believe Carwyn has said he favours going for another term of the Labour-Plaid coalition unless they win an ouright majority.

    Personally I think the Lib Dems will be slightly better then the poll predicts, but not by much. They will certainly loose seats.

    I also think Labour will be just short of an overall majority, and will re-enter coalition with Plaid, who will still be the 2nd largest party.

  17. @Geraint

    (Carwyn? Where’s Rhodri gone? What you mean it’s been over a year? I’ve been gone too long…)

    Yes, that’s my reading of the situation too at the moment. But what with the Assembly referendum in March, and Red votes up, and Plaid votes down, I can’t help but wonder…

    Regards, Martyn

  18. TWM.

    You remember I said without Rogers to muddy the waters in Ynys Mon.
    The true tory vote is Independant (Rogers) plus core Tory.
    On the last Assembly vote that would be 9,700 to 10,653 for IWJ.
    Not insurmountable I think. As for the Blog what it has done is make mostly elderly tories aware that Paul Williams is going to stand.

  19. The competition for list seats in South Central is likely to be very close and will probably come down to multiples of just under 8%.
    If the Greens were to get 9% then they would almost certainly get an AM unless labour regain Cardiff North and hold on to their other seats.
    If their vote was slightly lower at 7-8% then they might be relying on Welsh Conservatives to take Vale of Glamorgan from Labour.
    Lib Dems would on those figures, and assuming they hold on to Cardiff Central, go from being under-represented by one seat in the region to being over-represented

  20. Interestingly while only two MPs are required for group status at Westminster three Ams are required in Cardiff Bay. Dropping to two would be a financial disaster for the Welsh Lib Dems.

  21. Its going to be very close in Cardiff North. Jonathan Morgan is a very popular Conservative AM who works really hard for the area. He won Welsh Politician of the year in 07 I think it was. He’s got a huge team behind him too, 17 councillors and an MP in Cardiff North. Labour well they have nothing in Cardiff North anymore, but the ex MP Julie Morgan is running for the seat she only missed out in westminster by 197 votes but that was to a widely unknown Conservative candidate now the MP. She was extremely popular too and worked hard for the seat. Jonathan has almost a 15% majority but turnout was only around 50% so whether or not he keeps his seat or not is whether those labour voters turn out to vote in May. I think he will hold on to it with a much reduced majority, Conservative are going to win the Vale for sure and I believe they will win Brecon too. Lib Dems in Brecon switching to Labour will let Tories in, Labour dont stand a chance there.

  22. Julie Morgan will probably be boosted by the good job her husband did as First Minister. I would expect her now to get more votes (adjusting for turnout) for the Assembly than Westminster). And on grounds of past performance, regardless of party, she deserves it.

    More generally, the Coalition clearly leaves the field in Scotland and Wales open for the nationalists as thrid party. It would be good to see a Green AM; but the Greens have never been particularly strong in Wales. Indeed, they have in the past, at Westminster level, allied with Plaid. If the Greens got one or two AMs they might well operate in effect as part of the Plaid group.