Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. The small Labour lead in YouGov’s daily polling looks like it’s being consolidated. Meanwhile net government approval is down to minus 19, the lowest the coalition government have recorded so far.

UPDATE: There is also a new Angus Reid poll, topline figures are CON 35%(nc), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 9%(-4). I think that six point lead is the biggest Labour have recorded so far this Parliament, and it’s only the second pollster to show the Lib Dems in single figures. Others are presumably up to around 15%, which I think is also the highest any company has shown so far this Parliament.


197 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 40/42/9”

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  1. @Howard – “… a mistake *by the LDs*”

    Six of one and half a dozen of the other from my point of view. Nick Clegg to the right of his party, and Cameron percieved as to the left of his, both of whom produced a disappointing election result. That is what gives rise to the problems we now see, and could reasonably have been predicted from the start.

    The comments from one of Cameron’s closest advisors that the ‘chaotic’ pace of reforms is somehow something to be welcomed reminds me of GB’s closing remark during the debates: “These two are not ready for government.”

  2. @Ian From Lichfield
    “they seem as drunk and blinded by their own power as they are accusing Vince Cable of being”
    —————————–
    Very much so, good point. But a lorryload of hypocrisy will never be allowed to get in the way of a story which will boost circulation? I am no LibDem fan but I feel sorry for VC. But who is next for the chop?

  3. @Billy Bob and Ian From Lichfield
    Apologies – must go AWOL and pop out to shops before snow gets any thicker !

  4. @John Murphy
    I get your drift but its based upon a restoration of a two party 40% consensus….and I’m like Nick Hadley unsure that there’s any evidence of this yet….indeed we really need to see if this ‘collapse’ in the LibDem vote is real; how works out from region to region; and whether the AV referendum turns into a referendum upon the LIbEms. I guess we’ll have a better sense come May.
    That’s true. I’m just going off what has been the general trend for months; if the AV vote passes (I’m working under the assumption it won’t) then my posts could be a million miles from what actually happens.

    But we have literally seen the drip-drip of Lib Dems to Labour, and the Tories regain their 40%+ polling immediately after Cleggmania/the election. With that trend, and a failed AV, I don’t think my reasoning is that ‘out there’.

  5. John Murphy wrote

    I think Keynes argumment holds good still

    Which one John -many thanks for explanation? I admit I don’t know this one. Hope I’m not alone

  6. @Anthony Wells

    Thanks, that’s answered my question. I was wondering if it was a mixed bag, or mainly English Dems or Independents, as I suspected.

  7. Worrying figures for the government.

    A further swing of just 2% from Con to Lab would see a Labour landslide at a General Election.

    And next year is (possibly) going to deliver that swing – if not more.

  8. John Murphy wrote

    ‘I think Keynes argumment holds good still’

    Which one John -many thanks for explanation? I admit I don’t know this one. Hope I’m not alone

  9. @Cozmo

    Disagree with the Telegraph as I do, I draw the line at feeling sorry for Vince Cable. He has a perfectly viable defence if he chooses to use it.

    “You know I didn’t mean what I said – didn’t my signing the pledge to vote against the rise in tuition fees show that I don’t say what I mean to my constituents”.

  10. @Ian

    A more viable excuse is ‘ I was about to ask if there was any chance of a threesome when the attractive giggling young ladies made their excuses in the traditional tabloid fashion and left’.

  11. Ian from Lichfield
    Lol

    ………………………………………….

    I don’t see The Telegraph’s actions as entrapment at all.

    I may misunderstand how an MP’s meetings with constituents are meant to operate, but isn’t it the case that the constituent seeks the assistance/advice from their local MP in respect of some issue specific to the constituent rather than asking the MP’s general position?

    I cannot understand how VC allowed himself to discuss something that was surely beyond this? I’m tempted even to think he knew what was happening, but that is of course improbable.

  12. @Aleksandar

    If the LD’s decline in poll rating continues unabated, Vince may find himself in a threesome after the next election.

  13. Ian from Lichfield
    Lol, again

  14. Ian from Lichfield

    Just to aplogise for calling Lichfield Litchfield last night. I could have sworn it was so and am rather proud of my geographical knowledge. Hope you were not offended.

    I listened to the Cable tape and the giggles told me all I needed to know.

    I still feel LD may get a lift from all this in the polls, as VC comes out quite well. The dastardly accusations of ‘not behaving in a quasi judicial manner’ won’t cut any ice with lefty Murdoch hating erstwhile LD supporters.

  15. Robert
    Don’t the public realise the current problems related to the finances are because of the previous administration not saving when the times were good

    Apparently not Robert otherwise the polls woould not be where they are. The blame for the cuts is now gradually being put on the present government climbing from some 20% to double that.

  16. @Ian from Litchfield
    “If the LD’s decline in poll rating continues unabated, Vince may find himself in a threesome after the next election.”

    If the telegraph reporters happened to be two very attractive young ladies, perhaps in Vinces mind he fancied a threesome before the election or a cha-cha-cha.

  17. I suspect events at Heathrow aren’t doing the Tories much good.

  18. @MikeN

    ‘ I’m tempted even to think he knew what was happening’

    It crossed my mind that this was so bizarre that it might be deliberate. A classic coward’s way to dump a girlfriend is to provoke an argument resulting in her dumping you. Worst result is to have privileges withdrawn but still expected round for Christmas lunch with the in-laws.

  19. @Howard
    You can find polls from all institutes at http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

  20. @Mike

    I am no lawyer so I may not have got the definition of entrapment precisely right – however I am sure that Vince would not have spoken as he did had he known he was speaking to a couple of reporters – misrepresentation at the very least.

    I might have gone with your theory that Vince might have known what was happening if he had not made the comments about Murdoch. He has been around too long to not understand the implications of saying that to reporters.

    As to lol, you are welcome to a laugh – my tongue was firmly in cheek when making my follow up comments. You must accept the irony that to the papers Vince is damned if he lies to his constituents and damned if he doesn’t.

  21. @MIke N
    Unlike the Cons, who can be relied on to give money to those who are affluent/rich/worthyTories?

    Ah, the old class war argument rearing its ugly head. I am not rich or poor but have no problem with people being wealthy. In fact, I think you will find that many of the wealthy have actually got there in there own right through hard work, manage businesses that create real jobs in the private sector. Its called ambition, which is somewhat lacking in our current society.

    The more wealthy people there are, the better it is for us all. It has to be better than just giving handouts to people who have no intention of working and sitting on their backsides all day.

  22. @Howard

    You may be right about a lift in the polls as few of the lost LD supporters are likely to be fans of Murdoch – I hadn’t really thought of it in that way.

    However I really can’t see the Murdoch comments as being helpful to Vince Cable personal ambitions. The initial Telegraph revelations would have strengthened his claim to lead the left wing of the LDs, dutifully towing the party line despite his personal mis-givings on supporting Tory policy. However, should DC/NC now sack or sideline him it will be seen as a justified response to a political misjudgment by Vince Cable.

  23. @ David

    ” I think you will find that many of the wealthy have actually got there in there own right through hard work, manage businesses that create real jobs in the private sector. Its called ambition, which is somewhat lacking in our current society.”

    There is absolutely no evidence for any of this.

    All the profits derives from the work of the employees. Even if the particular employer, self-made man or whatever, did not actually exploit the work of his/her employees, the total surplus value is redistributed across firms and sectors by the markets (think of sectors that make profits but do not contribute to the value produced/serviced), thus he or she actually gain his or her wealth from employees of other firms. Exploitation is not a moral, but an economic category. The myth of the original sin of wealth creation is nothing but an attempt to overcome this problem.

    However, I fully agree with you about the lack of ambition in the society and the need for more, but could could possibly tell me, without reference for myth of the human selfishness, why it the ambition should increase private wealth and not the public good? Once you answer this, you will see that all private wealth is the result of the work of employees…

  24. @Laszlo

    I would hardly call it exploitation – though it does go on in some industries and countries. I would describe it as a synergetic relationionship between employer and employee. An employer directs his/her company offering work to employees. The employee offers services of labour if the price is right. Yes, employees may take a low paid job, but if they have any gumption about them, they will use it as a stepping stone to get a better job or the employer will promote or increase salary to keep that person. It is simply market forces at work which is played out every day in the economy.

    [Snip – comments policy – AW]

  25. @ David

    Labour always end up screwing up the economy.
    —————————————
    And the other Parties don’t? Rising unemployment, rising inflation, personal bankruptcies, repossesion of homes, black Wednesday? All good for the economy, in your view, I suppose.
    8-)

  26. @Laszlo
    We hear very distressing reports from Hungary about the government intending to limit press freedom. Is it all true? Can the East-European right have gone so far??

  27. Anthony, I apologise if this has already been asked but when do expect the Yougov polls to stop and start again over the xmas period?

    Also, are you expecting any polls for the Oldham by-election?

    Many thanks.

  28. Virgilio

    Many thanks. One notes that under PR it is just as important for Merkel for the FDP to recover as it is for Cameron under FPTP for the LDs to do so.

    The continued strong showing for Greens at 19% or greater is remarkable when one considers how they fare under FPTP here.

    The only time they really get a lift (Caroline Lucas edging a threeway election apart) is in the (PR) Euros, but they do get one, as does of course UKIP.

    One wonders why there is not a significant UKIP- py tendency at all in Germany and I believe not really so strongly in France (le Pen’s party) as the latter, although euro sceptic, is really about supressing immigrants, like Wilders’ PVV in NL..

  29. @ David

    The Conservatives remain people’s preferred party on the economy in general (by 31% to 28% for Labour)
    ———————————————————
    There’s not much polling evidence to support your view – the Conservatives are only narrowly ahead of Labour, regarding the economy.

    Interestingly, 41% appear to be unconvinced by either of the big 2 Parties on the economy.
    8-)

  30. RJK – The final daily poll of 2010 will be tomorrow night, then we pause for Xmas before starting up again in January.

    I don’t know of any O E & S polls, but there’s plenty of time yet.

  31. @Wolf,

    I suspect you may be right.

    @Ian from Lichfield,

    I think I’m going to have to go to Lichfield to see what the fuss is all about.

    @Amberstar

    Governments always screw up the economy… it’s just a matter of when, except when they get voted out before it goes bad on them.

    Interesting to see that most of the swing Labour to Cons last time has swung back again. I suspect it is not particularly solid though. A good recovery will help the government.

  32. David
    “…but have no problem with people being wealthy.”

    Nor do I.

    My question (now in moderation) was a response to a rather inflammatory comment by Robert.

  33. @ David

    Here’s more of the analysis, by Anthony for YG, from which I cribbed the above quote on the economy polling:

    Labour have also pulled ahead as people’s preferred party on many of the issues.

    On the NHS Labour are normally the more trusted party, and most of our polls since the election already showed them leading. However, their lead is now up to 9 points on the NHS (35% to 26% for the Conservatives) and they have overtaken the Conservatives on many other issues. Labour are preferred on education by 5 points (32% to 27%), unemployment by 4 points (30% to 26%) and are marginally ahead on taxation (29% to 28%).

    The Conservatives remain people’s preferred party on the economy in general (by 31% to 28% for Labour), law and order (by 33% to 25%) and immigration (by 36% to 16%).

  34. @Howard
    The showing of German Greens is indeed remarkable (albeit not as impressing as two months ago, where in some institutes they polled better than the SPD), but then again Germany was always favorable to ecologic issues and Greens were very influent in the Schroeder governments with Joska Fischer. As for the absence of a party such as the UKIP in France and Germany, this is also understandable. France and Germany are the very heart of Eurozone and even extreme right voters do not necessarily see the EU as the enemy, they are more concerned, as you said, about immigration, moslems etc., and they oppose EU only inasmuch as it is considered to promote multiculturalism etc and not as a threat to national independence per se.

  35. @ Keith HP

    A good recovery will help the government.
    ————————————————-
    It depends who’s ‘economy’ recovers.

    Labour tend to do very well when the economy is improving but people feel they aren’t getting a fair share of the economic pie. Don’t assume a good recovery will only benefit the incumbents.

    Labour have, so far, been successful in conveying the message that their voters & potential voters are taking all the pain; this sets up the expectation that recovery will provide them with pay-back for their sacrifices. If it doesn’t, then the recovery will benefit Labour.
    8-)

  36. The whole furore about the Cable “revelations”, and those of other Lib Dem ministers, is rather overwrought and artificial. After all, what he was doing was speaking on “lobby terms” to what he thought were supporters. Similar conversations go on all the time between leading politicians and journalists all the time and then get reported with the usual weasel words such as “senior Conservatives”.

    I’m rather reminded of the rows over Wikileaks, where the release of the embassy cables (no pun intended) are denounced on one hand as being deeply threatening and on the other as what everyone knows anyway. Often by the same people. You get the feeling that the real indignation is because of the light being shone on the mundane mechanism of government and its reporting, rather than the actual facts. No revelations rouse so much fury as the ones that say that Emperors (or some of their more self-important underlings) have no clothes.

    Of course the Telegraph’s dedication to open reporting proved to be rather selective. The tape and the “full transcript” omitted not just the questions (removing context) but also Cable’s comment on the Murdoch takeover of BSkyB. The information only came out because a Telegraph “whistleblower” passed the information, and later a copy of the full tape, over to Robert Peston. Nothing to do with commercial rivalry between media groups, I’m sure.

    Mike N shrewdly pointed out above that, while apparently weakening Cable’s position, these reports had also make him unsackable. I would add that it has also helped him with regard to the Murdoch takeover. Previous, less strong, remarks had already possibly opened up the judicial review any negative decision by him. This way a “no” is less challengeable and brings the wrath of the Murdoch media down on other non-Lib Dem heads. A “yes” brings down the wrath of the non-Murdoch media elsewhere and also the contempt of much of the public on the Tories for abasing themselves before News Corp.

    The fact that so many Lib Dem ministers were prepared to be semi-open with these unknown “members of the public” indicates that they have an attitude that internal government disagreements do not need to be hidden, and indeed that this can be used to justify their part in the coalition. They are clearly getting fed-up with Clegg’s role as “agonised, doe-eyed apologist” to quote Charlie Brooker, and feel open disagreement will reassure voters that they are actually making an attempt to moderate Tory policy. Of course, whether they realised there was something odd about these identical constituents they all seemed to have, or whether they would happily tell these views to anyone who came along, they have got the result they wanted.

    While the Telegraph’s actions are clearly designed to appeal to their Cameron-hating heartland (a very tiny, if loud, heartland if the polls are to be believed), it may actually strengthen the Lib Dems in the long run. How Clegg reacts to what is effectively a warning from his ranks will be what determines it.

  37. Ian from Lichfield
    “…I am sure that Vince would not have spoken as he did had he known he was speaking to a couple of reporters – misrepresentation at the very least.”

    But misrepresentation by a reporter who claims to be a constituent is not a crime/offence, as far as I’m aware. Nor am I aware of any legal privilege that could apply.

    It does look as though VC rather enjoyed the company of two young beautiful belles and got carried away. Silly old s*d. ((* just in case of auto moderation))

    Will this episode lead to a (temporary) increase in LD support? I’m unsure, so it will interesting to see the next YG VI.

  38. January 4th’s polls will be interesting – that is when VAT hist 20%. I cannot see the two coalition partners not being hit by this event.

  39. Damn my typing!

    The New Year will see further unrest – the unions are planning a day of action on March 26th (so I believe).

    Anyone yet predicting how many council seats the Liberal Democrats will lose on May 5th?

  40. @amber star

    Labour may well be ahead in some areas, but polls are irrelevant at the moment because I cannot see there being an election until 2015. I doubt even if Ed Milliband will be leading Labour then.

  41. @ Mike N

    Will this episode lead to a (temporary) increase in LD support? I’m unsure, so it will interesting to see the next YG VI.
    ————————————————————
    My opinion: No, it won’t.

    Tory leaning Lib voters will be aghast at VC’s naivete; Labour leaning Dems will be aghast at VC’s apology, role reduction; & that he was publicly reprimanded by both the PM & Clegg.
    8-)

  42. @KeithP

    Give me warning of when you are coming to Lichfield and I will buy you a pint.

    We will be able to celebrate the new job I am hoping that Lichfield Tourist Board will give me!!

  43. Virgilio

    As our resident Europe-comparison expert, and as you’re talking about the Greens:-

    How representative of the European Green movement are our Greens? A question last week got me thinking: they seem like a mixed bunch, I know in Ireland their Greens seem more centrist – I don’t think our Greens would ever coalesce with the Tories, for instance, or accept their austerity. But you also have the Nordic Green Left grouping in the EU, which suggests to me the Nordic Greens might be as, or possibly more leftist as ours? Just wondering, and I enjoy your European commentary.

  44. @ Roger Mexico

    How Clegg reacts to what is effectively a warning from his ranks will be what determines it.
    —————————————————-
    But Clegg has already reacted… he did not praise Cable’s openess with his constituents or condemn the Telegraph’s entrapment tactics, he joined the PM in giving VC a public kicking. Or have I missed a statement that’s supportive of VC from Nick Clegg?
    8-)

  45. @ David

    Labour may well be ahead in some areas, but polls are irrelevant at the moment because I cannot see there being an election until 2015.
    ——————————————————–
    Ah, the polls are irrelevant point, made on a site that’s all about polling – I love this type of comment. ;-)

    ——————————————————-
    I doubt even if Ed Milliband will be leading Labour then.

    ——————————————————
    That could well depend on the polls – because they are not, in fact, irrelevant. If Labour continues to increase its polling popularity, Ed M will be leading Labour at the next GE regardless of his personal ratings.
    8-)

  46. @Craig
    Indeed there is the North Green Left Alliance, which is a part of the European United Left-North Green Left group in the EP, but it does not comprise Green parties (Green parties = Members of the European Green Party, the Global Greens and the group Greens-European Free Alliance in the EP), but leftist parties with ecological sensibilities. The Green parties of Northern Europe are usually allied with the center-left parties (Socialists and European Left), as in Denmark and Sweden, but in Finland the Greens are more centrist and they participate in the center-right government of Mari Kiviniemi. In this they are similar to Greens of Ireland, of the Czech Republic and of Latvia (the latter are the most right-wing of all European Greens). On the other hand, French, Belgian and German Greens are allied with the socialists and the center-left in general, on a regional/municipal basis (always) or on a more general basis, in central govt. (sometimes), and the same is true in the case of Austrian, Italian and Greek Greens. The more leftist are the Portuguese and Catalonian Greens, which are allies of the respective communist parties.

  47. AmberStar

    Perhaps a (further) decrease in LD support, then?

    There is one thing joe public seems universally to condemn (sorry, but it’s a good word) is disunity in a party. And the LD shenanigans over past few weeks would seem to convey disunity IMO. Does this latest episode convey disunity, too?

    The other thing with the VC episode is that NC’s weakness is clearly evident. Ok, he’s rebuked VC but clearly he cannot remove him from post.

    It has also demonstrated the constraints on DC’s scope of action. IMO he’d probably want to remove VC (or at least invite resignation) but the coalition terms prevents this.

  48. @Amber

    It may be a site all about polling, but my point is that the poll will more than likely be very different in 2015.

  49. Perhaps Cable does have a nuclear option ?

    Clegg sounded very worried in a Sky interview in the last hour, about what could happen if Cabke was let loose on the back benches. What does Cable know that Clegg does not want people to find out ? Or is it that if Cable is forced to resign, the coalition could be in trouble ?

    If Cable claims to have a nuclear option, this must be about information he has, which could severly damage the coalition. Wonder what this could be?

  50. @Craig

    (so what am I: chopped liver? Ah, still…)

    First, a bit of background. Green politics is technically outside the left-right spectrum, although for many of them that’s stretching the definition of “technically” to its limit. Some of them however go beyond that and are very left-wing, very green, and see the one as reinforcing the other (see eco-socialism). Such people are normally counted separately from the Greens, and words such as “deep green” or “radical left” (Hix’s usage) are used to describe them. The Nordic Green Left you mention (which are part of the EUL-NGL group in the European Parliament) fit into this category. The Greens (as we understand them) sit in a different group, G/EFA. The two groups are separate.

    Secondly, the answer to your question (assuming you are in England or Wales) is that the Green Party of England and Wales is, basically, fairly typical of the European Greens: fuzzily defined, a bit left, a bit eurosceptic, well meaning, woolly-minded, etc. Not as left-wing as, say, the German Greens, but not so different as to be conspicuously different. Virgilio will correct me if I’m wrong. If you are in Scotland, the Green Party of Scotland is similar. If you are in Northern Ireland, the Greens organise on a pan-Ireland basis

    Further reading below. Hope that helps, regards, Martyn

    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EUL-NGL
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Green_Left
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nordic_Green_Left_Alliance
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_England_and_Wales
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_Ireland
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Party_of_Scotland
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Greens%E2%80%93European_Free_Alliance
    * h ttp://personal.lse.ac.uk/hix/Working_Papers/HixandNoury-LSQ-May09.pdf

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