Two new polls tonight. YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. With three YouGov polls in a row showing a Labour lead it looks like there’s been a genuine shift there (though of course, I said that back in November and it turned out to be a purely short term phenomenon).

Secondly there is the monthly Ipsos MORI poll “given” to the Guardian. They have topline figures with changes from last month of CON 38%(+2), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 11%(-3). The Guardian reports this as being the Lib Dems lowest figure from MORI since 1991, which isn’t quite accurate. It’s the lowest the Lib Dems have been in MORI’s monthly political monitor series, but actually they had other voting intention polls in both October 2007 and December 2008 with the Lib Dems at 11%.


176 Responses to “New YouGov and MORI polls”

1 2 3 4
  1. @ COLIN

    A former Gen SEc of the Labour Party ( young chap-can’t remember his name) has just voiced concerns about EM’s plan.
    ————————————————————-
    There will be quite a few New Labour chaps voicing disquiet with Ed’s approach. It doesn’t mean they are right & he is wrong; it means they are right & he is left.
    ;-)

  2. @Colin – “…-ie if things go well for the coalition-EM’s tactic will be shot to pieces before he has any policies of his own-by which time the agenda on devolved powers, social policy, welfare, Healthcare, etc will have been changed-or be in the process of change, and EM will look like an out of date , anti-aspirational statist, big-government spendthrift.”

    I think you’re forgetting the joy of opposition. As Cameron himself used on many occasions, in opposition you can relatively easily switch sides on a debate and reverese previously irreversible policies.
    The Tories did this on many occasions from 2006 – 2010 (the less kind among us would say they’re still doing it now) and I really don’t see EM as playing much of a gamble – just pretty straightforward opposition tactics.

  3. Alec

    “I really don’t see EM as playing much of a gamble ”

    I’m delighted that he agrees with you :-)

  4. @Amber,

    On the age thing, well I do obviously believe that before people can participate in a libertarian free for all of orgies, self-harm and smoking crack (all of which I’d allow for adults) then they should be “of an age”. What that age should be is a bit of a moving target. I’ve always thought that it should be uniform and apply to everything (you’re either a grown up or you’re not) and I’d probably set that age at 17. But whatever age it is it will always be arbitrarily picked out of thin air. The alternative, that every person should be assessed as to whether they personally are sufficiently mature to cope with and be permitted to engage in a specific activity, would be fine in theory but administratively impossible. Having an official “age of adulthood” is a necessary evil. Even then I think there is scope for the judicious application of the rules, which happens in many cases already.

    As for graffiti, I consider damaging property belonging to another to constitute harm to them. To me it doesn’t matter whether than person is the disabled Asian grandmother whose door your daub with paint, or the international company whose windows you smash. Once you’ve established what is a crime I don’t think you can be conditional about which victims deserve protection.

  5. Ed M’s oppositionist “oppose everything, support nothing, wait to see which way the wind blows” approach is tactically absolutely astute.

    Ethically bankrupt, perhaps, but I’d never hold that against a politician, unless it’s one of those that bangs on about “ethical foreign policy” or “pledging to oppose tuition fees”.

  6. @ Neil A

    Well, he is only following Dave’s example, so can’t blame him.

    @ Colin

    “DC on the medium term-2012 to 2014”

    Hence why he wants the five-year parliaments so he can’t have somebody blaming him for everything going wrong in the short term and demanding an election. Much like a former leader of the opposition once did.

    “But this is a five year plan.”

    Comrade Cameron then ;)

  7. @Billy,

    Absolutely. For an opposition leader it’s a no-brainer. “Setting out your stall” is completely counter-productive. The time for that sort of malarkey is when you come to write the manifesto.

  8. @Colin Green, Phil, Hal, Roger Mexico

    I asked the question about Margins of Error last night, but unfortunately I got tied up with something and missed the replies that you kindly made.

    I have just had a chance to read them now – they were very helpful. Thank you all and apologies for not acknowledging your responses earlier.

  9. @ Neil A

    I’d argue it’s more when they get into gov’t. Manifestos don’t seem to count for much these days.

  10. @Colin – to clarify, when I say EM isn’t taking much of gamble, I mean that there is little else he can do in opposition.

    If the economy does pick up it doesn’t necessarily mean bad news for Labour. We’ll quite probably have much longer NHS waiting lists, larger class sizes and a host of other problems associated with cutting the deficit (I’m not making any value judgements on these – it’s just the way it’s likely to be) and if there is money to be spent EM can make a rational case for getting back to investment in public services against cutting the 50% tax rate or inheritance thresholds. In fact, it might even be easier for Labour if the economic problems are seen to be behind us.

  11. @Billy,

    I’d say you have to put some policies in your manifesto before the election. You’re quite right that this doesn’t mean you have to actually keep supporting those policies after the election (c.f Danny Alexander and Ed Milliband).

  12. Alec
    It’s clear to me you don’t understand my use of English which i will consider as my fault. When I used the word ‘help’ I was using a colourful way of expressing that we were supposed to think that there was this hampered private enterprise just itching to take on more staff but prevented by a public sector that was snaffling them all up in these useless activities the public sector is opined to indulge in..

    So not ‘help as you thought I was saying (government help) because you evidently think that whatever i say is trying to excuse some government policy.

    So I will try again. I was trying to say that our current Treasury are saying that by making masses of public employees redundant, they will be ‘freed up’ to take jobs in a private industry which is clamouring for their ‘help’ in solving their recruitment problems.

    I have never heard anything so daft in all my life but will be very happy to be proved wrong, but with VAT coming in at 20%, let’s just say i have my doubts..

    I hope that is clears it up.

  13. Neil A

    Your earlier ‘without fear or favour’ speech.

    Good man, we all hope that your attitude is replicated, but we are sometimes a little doubtful.

    On manifesto, once the public begin to understand coalition government (which they don’t yet) manifestos will be seen for what they always were, wish lists. Not even a government with 150 majority has ever implemented its manifesto.

  14. @Billy, @Neil A

    I’ve been following your dialogue. Are you genuinely unaware of the 2008 case in Brighton, where HMG (Gordon Brown at the time) argued that “…a manifesto promise is incapable of giving rise to a legally binding contract with the electorate…”?

    Links:
    * h ttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7233175.stm
    * h ttp://www.theargus.co.uk/news/2027270.activist_loses_battle_with_gordon_brown/

    Dramatis Personae
    * Stuart Bower (UKIP)
    * Brighton County Court (location)
    * James Fenton (for Bower)
    * Cecilia Ivimy (for HMG)
    * Paul Gamba (Judge)

    Regards, Martyn

  15. @ Howard

    “Treasury are saying that by making masses of public employees redundant, they will be ‘freed up’ to take jobs in a private industry which is clamouring for their ‘help’ in solving their recruitment problems.”

    In light of the report below I’m inclined to share your doubts-and with them an increasing realisation that our education system does indeed need radical improvement :-

    “The UK’s skills shortage is affecting larger business growth, the Institute of Directors (IoD) has said.

    Its survey reveals that 31 per cent of employers are finding it hard to fill vacancies due to a lack of candidates possessing the necessary skills for a role.

    This is echoed by the latest Report on Jobs from the REC and KPMG, which stated that businesses are finding a skills shortage in some areas, including IT specialists.

    The IoD claimed that the hardest skills to find are in technical skills, management and leadership.

    In addition, the association found that 47 per cent of those surveyed said that some of their current employees also lack the skills required to perform their job.

    “It is disturbing that at a time of economic weakness, the growth of the private sector is being held back by skills shortages,” commented Miles Templeman, director-general of the IoD.

    This has led to 58 per cent of employers claiming that the skills shortage is restricting the growth of their business through higher costs, stifled innovation and increased workloads for other staff.”

  16. @Colin

    “The IoD claimed that the hardest skills to find are in technical skills, management and leadership.”

    And these skills are to be found amongst all those being made redundant?

    “In addition, the association found that 47 per cent of those surveyed said that some of their current employees also lack the skills required to perform their job.”

    There seems to be a bit missing from this quote:

    “…and the association expects these skills to walk off the street. The idea that business might actually train people to have the necessary skills is plainly outrageous.”

  17. THis was a piece in the Guardian recently on the UK skills shortage & educational shortcomings :-

    h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2010/may/18/skills-shortage-worsens

    It is to be hoped that the wave of former public sector workers about to appear on the jobs market will fill some of these gaps.

  18. EU alert

    This is my first (thought it a good intro)

    The EU has agreed to amend the Lisbon Treaty to provide for a new fund to protect the Euro from problems in member states)

    I suppose the British press will catch up eventually and replace their obsession with Asssange

  19. “The EU has agreed to amend the Lisbon Treaty to provide for a new fund to protect the Euro from problems in member states)”

    So, any guesses as to when we will get the promised referendum on EU treaty changes?

  20. @ Martyn

    Thanks for that info, didn’t know about it.

    “a manifesto promise is incapable of giving rise to a legally binding contract with the electorate…”

    Presumably this now needs to be expanded to include actual contracts and pledges.

  21. @Billy @Martyn

    Disagree with Brown on many things, but he is right here IMHO. It would ridiculous for manifesto commitments to be legally enforceable.

  22. @ Raf

    I wouldn’t expect them to be legally enforceable, but surely there is a moral principle here?

  23. I think the message is really that noone should be making “pledges”, rather setting out their priorities, their objectives and their principles. What they hope to achieve. How their approach would be different from their opponent’s approach.

    Without knowing what will happen in the wider world, there is nothing you can really pledge with 100% certainty that you will be able to meet it. I’ve yet to meet a psychic politician.

  24. @ Neil A

    “I’ve yet to meet a psychic politician.”

    A couple of messianic ones but never a psychic one ;)

    There may not be anything you can give a 100% certainty to be able to do – but politicians still do, which is their fault for doing so.

  25. YG have Tories back in front again. Still oscillating around 40/40, but with LDs struggling to get to double figures.

  26. Ignore my last. 24 hours out of date! All level tonight.

    That’s what a day’s Christmas shopping will do to you…

1 2 3 4