YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. It confirms the Labour lead YouGov showed in yesterday’s Sunday Times poll (though it is still well within the margin of error of the two parties being neck and neck).


71 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 41/42/9”

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  1. given the approval rating of -16 the Tories doing very well not to drop % points

  2. @Ian

    It’s hard to remember this, but it’s not been a full year yet since the election, and the Conservatives are still benefiting from a “Honeymoon Period”.

  3. @Ian
    Of course the Tories do not drop % points yet, and that’s good for them, they use the LDs like human shields in a bombing, Nick Clegg and his companions take all the damage. The Tories will begin to feel the damage once the shield will have totally collapsed.

  4. Virgilio – It is funny you said that. I heard a Conservative councillor say the same today locally. “Once the Lib Dems fall apart we will be the party the public will take their anger out on”.

  5. @RED RAG
    The question is why the LDs do not see this. Well, some of them certainly do, but they seem to be trapped in an impossible dilemma. If they leave the coalition now, they will find themselves in a political no-man’s land. If they stay, they will get even more damage. So, as Woody Allen would have put it, between political suicide and total annihilation, they must pray God to help them choose correctly!

  6. Ian and Jay B
    Virgilio’s comment explains all. the 9 is beginning to look stubborn and I can’t resist raising it (forgive me Anthony) but it suggests something a bit less in Scotland and Wales
    However, for those interested, the Lib Dems here have decided their only hope is to be more antagonistic to the SNP than anybody else. The forced resignation of a minister is a sign of the changed times. Alex Salmond used to threaten elections if one of his trusties was threatened but no more. There is a small but real chance of a Scottish election before May. It is apparent that the Tories are not being quite as compliant as previously to the SNP. Perhaps a sign of Tory recognition of the need to do something to help their struggling UK partners

  7. Can the Lib Dems go lower?

  8. Virgillio…..some have decided political suicide and are trying to take as many in their party with them as possible.

    http://redrag1.blogspot.com/2010/12/red-rag-place-where-orange-tories-are.html

    If it continues like this, just how far will their percentage fall?

  9. How LOWWWWWWWW can you go?

  10. @Barney Crockett

    UKPR’s electoral map has Labour/you winning Gordon on these results, no doubt helped by Others only getting a mere 8%. ;-)

  11. Sorry Anthony for the link (now in moderation), but it was backing what Virgillio was saying.

    They are not exactly helping themselves in certain areas of the country and things like that point to a further fall.

  12. @jay not even 8 months yet and one side nearly collapsed.

    However trying not to be too biased, the tories can be pleased but I think some suggested because of his own high personal ratings rather than policies.

    will they fall and then what happens ?

  13. How low? think of a number – I guess 5%. who knows?

    (actually if they do go that low, maybe there might be some “others” that are more popular).

  14. BARNEY

    I’m no expert, but I believe that pollsters would say that 9% actually means a range of 6% and 12%.

  15. I’m not sure that Lib Dem success in Hollyrood would translate into success in Westminster. There’s already a palpable sense of disparity between England and Scotland, as people who see the “necessary and unavoidable” cuts in England being avoided and considered unnecessary in Scotland.

    The only way the Lib Dems can not appear hypocritical is if they cut hard in Scotland too…

  16. @Ian

    They would be bucking a strong historical trend if they continued to receive a greater vote share than the election that moved them into government.

  17. @Keith P

    The lowest they’ll go is 7; 6 at a push. Only a minority, around 1.5 – 2% of Lib Dem polled show dissatisfaction with the coalition or its performance, so I’d say we’ll have reached the market liberal faction if we ever get to that point.

    In yesterday’s poll, 17% seemed to me social democrats, or 1.53%. 9% – 1.53% = 7.4%…the exact figure they got in the 1970 GE.

  18. @ Jay Blanc

    Would Labour even try a coalition with the Lib Dems, given it effectively offers them a life raft?

  19. Here’s the link to what might well be the next political storm to erupt, when the figures sink in at a local level. Details of how today’s council finance settlement affects every area of England, in terms of grant funding from central government.

    htt p://www.local.odpm.gov.uk/finance/1112/1112change.xls

    Just compare the first and last columns – on average a 9.9% cash cut in grants in just the first year. Much more to come in later years.

    In terms of polling impact, IMO it’ll be a slower burning equivalent of tuition fees, only this time I hope that the blues also get it in the neck (not that Pickles has one).

  20. I think it would be fair to say that, 4 1/2 years before the next planned election, Tories won’t be worrying too much.

    Remember when the Tories were 3rd in 1981 and the SDP was going to destroy all before them?

    Of course, it’s not to be ignored, but hardly unexpected.

    What IS interesting is that the 2 biggest parties are registering 83% of the vote compared to 67% in the election; when you add in the LibDems, the “non big 3” vote has more than halved since the election.

    What will this do to nationalist and smaller parties?

  21. @ Richard Manns

    h ttp://i52.tinypic.com/rucjtt.png

    A graph showing that development (ie % Tory + Labour votes of total) in historical context. I don’t think the Nats have much to worry about, they’re consistently getting their 2% in Yougov’s polls. I think Labour + Tory covering 80%+ of the electorate is overwhelmingly at the expense of the Lib Dems.

    Smaller parties? Doesn’t look good.

  22. Virgilio – if you’re there.

    Good luck – here’s hoping that Berlusconi cops it tomorrow (or even today!)

  23. @Virgilio

    Ther is plenty of time before 2015 for LDs to decide which way to go. Nobody will be thinking of today’s issues then.

  24. Ponder this: if the AV rferendum is passed the LIbDems would expect to be permanently in government….

    I wonder if once the public grasp that how they’ll vote in the referendum in May.

    The surprise to me isn’t that the LibDem vote has collapsed and the Labour and Conservative vote risen the former quite dramatically, so much as anything should yet have happened as not really one cut has been made.

    The Student Fees policy is iimportant in that respect in so far as it defines a clear change although that change hasn’t yet affected actual student entry in a way that shows up in applications for university places. I guess those numbers will be closely studied from now on.

    I still think the early spring will begin to give us a real picture as real taxes rise and the phoney war of cuts is followed by the real blitz-creig.

    My own guess is that this government may start to lose its nerve…especially has both in education and NHS reform there is going to be an almighty upheaval that will inevitably lead to media chasing individual ‘horror’ stories.

    If the ocoalition’s much vaunted communication skills are up the the student fee level…then I’m afraid like their recent black eye in Switzerland they’re in for a good old fashioned thrashing….many councils changing hands and maybe wipe-out for some LibDems areas in north.

    Enough Cassandra is closing down for Christmas and no more predictions until after the Greeks launch a thousand ships…

    With that entry on pinhole I nearly forgot myself with ships….

  25. @Red Rag – “… the problems blazing away beneath them.”

    ‘Liberal’ use of the water-cannon would put a stop to that. ;)

  26. I think Miliband’s overtures to disenchanted Lib Dem MPs is a shrewd move, offering an opportunity to work together in the Commons on areas of mutual interest but also, most importantly, sending a wider signal to discontented Lib Dem activists and voters in the country at large. A senior Lib Dem has recently said the blindingly obvious that most of them have more in common with the Labour and Greens than the Tories, and I suspect that this realisation will steadily grow, nurtured, if they’re clever, by stealthy Labour seduction.

  27. Nick Hadley
    “A senior Lib Dem has recently said the blindingly obvious that most of them have more in common with the Labour and Greens than the Tories…”

    IMO, John Major’s repeated loving comments about the LDs is also an attempt to seduce one part of the LDs.

    There is a clear schism in the LD party.

    I don’t see how the LD party can hold together. IMO it’s a matter of when not if the party fractures.

    The turmoil at the LD grass roots (see Red Rag’s link above) must be having an enormous impact on the LD heirarchy. who can now prevent the disintegration of the LD base?

    Every LD must now wonder about NC’s leadership.

    I think EM is playing a very good game now. He’s avoided media attempts to nail him (eg to outrageous policies) and he is exploiting political opportunities.

  28. Mike N and Nick Hadley

    As a Lib Dem I can tell you that just as most of us don’t like having to work with the Tories, we find the Labour party and its track record of failure utterly unappealing. We do not believe any of their appeals, because they are utterly bogus and opportunistic.

    There is no division within the party and no challenger to Nick Clegg, whatever you may wish.

    We have been this low before in the opinion polls, even quite recently, and we have come back again afterwards. So just stop writing our political obituary. There’s no point.

  29. It is rather rich for a Lib Dem to complain about Labour being bogus & opportunistic at the moment.

  30. Robert C
    Thank you.

    Have you not ever recently wondered whether a leadership change might improve the public’s perception of the LDs?

  31. Barnaby Marder
    “It is rather rich for a Lib Dem to complain about Labour being bogus & opportunistic at the moment.”

    Oh, I wish I’d said that!

  32. If you want to see what LD activists disagreeing with NC and amongst themselves, and resigning have a look at:

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-richard-huzzey-i-resign-22345.html

  33. @ Robert C

    “………..because they are utterly bogus and opportunistic.”

    And the Tories advances to you in May this year weren’t, I presume? I think you need to ask yourself this question. Was Mr Cameron and the Tory party hierarchy’s offer of coalition in the wake of the inconclusive General Election result born of expediency on their part or by a principled and long held desire to form an administration with your party?OK, I hear all the arguments about parliamentary arithmetic forcing people’s hands, of the need to form a stable government at a time of national crisis, of compatible aims on civil liberties, of past Tory and Liberal coalitions, but let me put to you a rather more prosaic and baser motivation that might have been at play. Mr Cameron failed to win an election that he had been expected to cakewalk. His powerful backers, in the press, in the City and in big business were highly disappointed. He pondered his own, and his party’s, immediate political future and stared into an abyss. He played the only card he had and that was to inveigle the Lib Dems into an arrangement that, in effect, facilitated the one thing he couldn’t deliver himself; a Tory Government. All that has followed since has been a retrospective, some would say bogus and opportunistic, attempt to justify an act of the utmost political expediency. I fear that the Lib Dems are looking more like unwitting dupes as each day goes by.

  34. @ Barnaby Marder and Mike N

    If anyone thinks having to form a coalition with a party you have always vehemently disliked in the middle of a God almighty crisis in the public finances is “opportunistic” they need their head examining. Labour is making huge poll gains from posturing about cuts without actually having to say what they would cut even more instead.

    And how precisely would changing our leader help? The whole point is Nick Clegg is taking the blame for the fact that cuts are having to be made. If it had not been student fees, there would have been some other equally sensitive area that would have to have been cut and would have been singled out as being a “betrayal”.

    Basically, there is a massive collective public fit of hypocrisy going on at the moment. All voters have said there should be cuts and that they support them in principle, but when it actually comes to making individual cuts, they oppose them. If we had a different leader, it would make NO difference to our poll ratings whatever. We have just got to ride this one out.

  35. @ ROBERT C
    As a blue I wholeheartedly agree with what you have said. I just do not understand comments like ” LD’s are much closer to Labour than the Tories”. Answer this, On how many occasions in history, have the Libs been in coalition with the Tories & how many times with Labour? I think I am correct in stating that Liberals are ‘Free market people’ & believers in Adam Smith. Hardly Labour, although Blair & Brown did flirt with the concept. A concept which EM seems to have discarded now.
    The LD’s, like Labour & Tories, are a broad church and indeed are coalitions within themselves. There are people on the left and on the right. Much of the noise of course, comes from the tactical voters, who tend to be reds, who voted LD as an anti Tory vote but they still have got a bluish government. And they don’t like that.
    Thankfully, for the country’s sake, the right of the LD’s now have the upper hand. When the Scottish alchoholic was leader maybe it was the left wing in charge. Similarly when ‘Old father time’ was trying to run things.

    Milliband’s offer is totally opportunistic and is seen as such by everyone except dyed in the wool reds, who desperately want the LD’s to break up. I don’t blame them for this, after all many blues though IDS was the saviour of the Tory party, when he became leader.
    At least EM has actually come out of the woodwork at last and said SOMETHING.

  36. The real surprise is that the Tories have managed to add another 6 percentage points to their ratings. THIS is what is killing the Lib Dem polling performance. 15-17% at this stage would be quite respectable under the circumstances.

    However, there is good reason to believe that these voters could come back to us. They think they support the Tories, but in reality they are supporting the moderate left wing of the party. Effectively they are “coalition voters” . Without the Lib Dems, Cameron would be in real trouble with his extreme right wing who have been effectively silenced for now. Once they come back into the open again, the Tories are going to become a lot less appealing to mainstream voters.

  37. @ Robert in France

    “Thankfully, for the country’s sake, the right of the LD’s now have the upper hand.”

    I’ll take that as “friendly fire”. LOL.

    No, the pragmatists have the upper hand. I don’t think for a million years it could be said that the pupil premium, £10,000 personal allowance, no “renegotiation” over Europe, sustained transport investment, £2.5bn extra for child tax credits and a referendum on voting reform could be remotely described as being “right wing”.

    There is a whole raft of policies to come that will be seen as being fair, logical and progressive that will hopefully undo some of the damage wrought by having to make cuts.

  38. @RiF

    “There are people on the left and on the right. Much of the noise of course, comes from the tactical voters, who tend to be reds, ”

    There are just as many tactical voters on the right. A lot of LD support in cities such as Liverpool, Sheffield, Leeds, Newcastle would be voting Tory if they were anywhere else.

  39. Robert C
    It is not about the cuts. It is about right wing ideology – e.g. bribing outstanding schools to become academies, abolishing police authorities, giving the NHS to the GPs etc etc.
    These things don’t save money!
    Why are the Lib Dems allowing the Tories to dismantle local government? That is their power base!
    Also, don’t kid yourself that this is like any other dip in the polls the Lib Dems have ever had. It isn’t. IMO the Lib Dems have already had their very own Tory ERM or Labour’s banking crisis moment. It is a fundamental shift. You think the Libs will get credit from the economy recovering? You mean like John Major in 1997 (which was over four years after the ERM debacle.) !

  40. ‘@Robert C
    “And how precisely would changing our leader help?”

    The new leader would be able to ditch the coalition and enter into supply and confidence. The Cons shield would cease to exist and they would be in the firing line

    “The real surprise is that the Tories have managed to add another 6 percentage points to their ratings. ”

    Since the GE they have added some 4% points, I think. But lost points according to other pollsters.

  41. I agree: it’s perfectly clear that the LibDem party is free from petty partisan considerations and has pursued the highest principles at every opportunity regardless of self-interest.

    The language used by Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg certainly shows respect for the represetatives of those who didn’t vote for the coalition.

    Its obvious from every interview that they toil ceaselessly to make party politics less partisan by showing their opponents respect.

    They will therefore will rightly expect to receive assistance from the unprincipled and opportunistic members of the Labour Party in the forthcoming referendum campaign.

    I for one will vote, early, repeatedly and often to ensure such political giants as these remain a permanent feature of our government…

    …. Indeed why bother have elections at all…why not just ask Mr Clegg to call a press conference in four years time and tell us which party he’s decided to go into coalition with and what the policies are?

    That way we won’t have to burden the public finances with the cost of elections…something Mr Clegg has been much troubled about. And no one will be able to embarass any LibDems ministers by quoting back an unfortunate manifesto pledge which they’ve decided to abandon. Job done.

  42. @Robert C
    Yes’ friendly fire! – sorry I didn’t mean to be patronising & I think pragmatic is a very good word. I agree that the policies you list, are not right wing policies but most people who vote blue are not right wing. They are a wing only and I think much diminished nowadays with no natural leader to organise them.
    I support all those policies that you list except changing the voting system but I can fully live with a commitment to a referendum on the subject.

    @Robin Again I agree that there are but they are not the ones making the noise of course.

    I have just watched John Reid on the DP show and I have to wonder why he was not persuaded to stand for the leadership. He speaks common sense, is very experienced and I am sure has TV appeal. Talk of a lost opportunity but maybe he didn’t want to be a ten year leader of the opposition. (smiley thingy)

  43. John Murphy

    Lol

  44. @Mike N

    Changing the leader would do absolutely nothing for the LD’s except ensure that they were soundly trounced at the GE which would follow within weeks probably. Neither would it have made any difference to Labour’s fortunes last May, had they ditched Brown in January. At the end of the day 3 terms is long enough for any party to be in power and the people understand that. That the Tories got 4 was a pure accident due to Kinnock snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in 1992.

  45. @ John Murphy

    Thanks for that sarcastic diatribe. Not sure what it adds to a discussion about current opinion polls, but it certainly keeps you Labour lot happy and distracted from the current miserable rating of your own leader, who hasn’t even moved beyond his “honeymoon” period before proving a flop.

  46. @Robert in France
    “Changing the leader would do absolutely nothing for the LD’s except ensure that they were soundly trounced at the GE which would follow within weeks probably..”

    I disagree with all this. First, if one can accept that the LD’s fortunes can change before the next GE, then logically this could happen whether the GE is in four years’ time or early next year.

    I disagree that a GE would occur quickly. The onus and uty would be on DC to form a minority gov with LD S&C.

    And, replacing NC may or may not lead to any change in public support but perhaps far more importantly it would have a profound beneficial effect IMO on the LD party.

    Something needs to be done as the LDs seem in danger of disintegration. I’ve just followed this link h ttp://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-richard-huzzey-i-resign-22345.html, and found a party that is tearing itself apart.

    Getting rid of NC and entering opposition is the only way IMO the LDs can save their party.

  47. oops, typo

    The onus and duty would be on DC to form a minority gov with LD S&C.

  48. Of course, the very notion that the Lib Dems actually enjoy being in government and enjoy the benefits which it brings, rather than having to stick to their previously stated principles, would be totally ridiculous, wouldn’t it?

  49. Robert C
    You would say that wouldn’t you? Ed Miliband is not a well known politician yet. OK he hasn’t set the world alight but so what? Thatcher was a “flop” between 75 and 78.

    Crushing the Lib Dems in Oldham will make Labour feel better about future prospects anyway.

    Let’s get back to the topic which is the coalition policy.

    The next really big test of the Lib Dems is whether they are going to keep Rupert Murdoch in his box (it is already big enough for my liking). Has Cable got the balls for it? [Snip… try and keep within the spirit of the comments policy Ian… – AW]

  50. @Barnaby Marder

    ‘enjoy being in government and enjoy the benefits which it brings, rather than having to stick to their previously stated principles…’

    One name springs to mind – John Prescott.

    People in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.

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