YouGov’s daily poll for the Sun has figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. It confirms the Labour lead YouGov showed in yesterday’s Sunday Times poll (though it is still well within the margin of error of the two parties being neck and neck).


71 Responses to “YouGov/Sun – 41/42/9”

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  1. @Mike N
    ‘The onus and duty would be on DC to form a minority gov with LD S&C.’

    Precisely Mike which, would very soon fall and we would have to have a GE. That is unless, Labour suddenly accepted that there is a financial problem to sort & started behaving responsibly, instead of just standing on the sidelines heckling & jeering and decrying everything.
    PS What does S& C stand for? Sorry if it’s a daft question.

  2. @ Mike N

    “The onus and duty would be on DC to form a minority gov with LD S&C.”

    We’ve all discussed this before, I know, but it would have been the more honest and politically sensible thing for the Lib Dems to have done. By offering Cameron conditional support, daring him to govern in the national interest, the Lib Dems could have retained their credibility and unity as a party as well as probably gaining some level of support in the country, especially if they were seen to be ameliorating the worst excesses of a Tory Government. Ironically, it may have been a better course of action for the Tories too, allowing them to shed some of their more doctrinaire reputation and putting them in a good position to seek an outright majority in a General Election in, say, 2013.

    In my view, the only prize worth having for the Lib Dems that would have justified a full blown coalition with the Tories was a cast iron commitment to a referendum on PR. The fact that Clegg didn’t get it, or anything like it, suggests he had another agenda, one that owed more to the attractions of ministerial limousines and red boxes. Consequently, he has led his party into an appalling cul-de-sac where all is to be lost and nothing to be gained.

    Let me finish on a slightly mischievous note. Let’s go back to those darling days in May and suppose that Cameron, as the leader of the largest party in the newly elected Commons, was absolutely sincere about forming a government of national unity to tackle the nation-threatening emergency he claimed to have identified. What was to stop him making offers to all the parties? Alistair Darling to work with George Osbourne, David Miliband to assist Hague on issues like Afghanistan, Nick Clegg to look at electoral and constitutional reform. A Cabinet of all the talents to address “the worst crisis to threaten our country since the second world war”.

    What did we get instead? A partisan and ideologically driven Tory Government with a few cabinet seats thrown in for, it would appear, similarly minded Lib Dem fellow travellers.

  3. A senior Lib Dem has recently said the blindingly obvious that most of them have more in common with the Labour and Greens than the Tories
    It was actually more in common with Labour and the Greens than their leadership, IIRC.

  4. I’m not in a glass house Robert – I wasn’t in the Labour Government! I have criticised that government on many issues and don’t see why I shouldn’t do so to this government – other than Anthony’s comments policy of course!

  5. @RiF

    “One name springs to mind – John Prescott.”

    JP may have enjoyed being a minister, but he had ‘earned’ it by being part of the party that won the election. No principles or manifesto commitments had to be ditched as the price of becoming a minister.

  6. Robert in France
    S&C is supply and confidence.

    There are still abbreviations/acronyms used on UKPR that I don’t understand. The most amusing (and embarrassing) for me was failing to understand VI even when one poster (Billy Bob, I think) explained it to me. I kept seeing Roman numerals. In comparison, S&C is not as obvious.

  7. Nick Hadley
    Spot on.

  8. @Mike N
    Yes VI fooled me for a while as I too kept reading ‘6’, then it suddenly dawned.

    re: Nick Hadley – Spot on- Only if you agree with that point of view. In other circumstances I might have been sympathetic to that view, but you are forgetting the markets and the turmoil that was generally going on that weekend.
    If Cameron & Clegg had not acted as they did, who knows what whirlwind might have ensued. I have the highest regard for them both for the way in which they acted. As Supermac once said, ‘It’s events dear boy, events.’ People have been asking for years for politicians to work together. When they do they are dammed. But it could not have included Darling et al, as they still don’t think there is a problem.

    Interestingly, John Reid said on DP today that if Cameron had been as effective as opposition leader, as he has since proved as Prime Minister, then he would have won the election by a landslide.

  9. @RiF

    “but you are forgetting the markets and the turmoil that was generally going on that weekend.”

    The argument that there was going to be a UK government debt crisis was self-serving nonsense. UK debt is almost entirely long-dated, and is held by UK-based institutions. Completely different from the short-dated external debt that led to that weekend’s panic.

  10. RiF
    “If Cameron & Clegg had not acted as they did, who knows what whirlwind might have ensued.”

    None. I’m 100% confident.

    “People have been asking for years for politicians to work together. When they do they are dammed.”

    Working together didn’t and doesn’t require a coalition.

    “…John Reid said on DP today that if Cameron had been as effective as opposition leader, as he has since proved as Prime Minister, then he would have won the election by a landslide.”

    Damning with faint praise, perhaps? I’m still undecided about DC in terms of PM qualities as there has not been anything to really challenge him.

  11. @ Robin
    ‘The argument that there was going to be a UK government debt crisis was self-serving nonsense’.

    Not correct Robin. Bond rates had already started to rise and some issues had only been got away because the Bof E had intervened. Sterling was also under extreme pressure.
    As for long & short financing requirements, I think this was the argument that Eoin was using as to why Ireland would not have to be supported in the short term, by a bail out, as they had no need to refinance anything till well into next year.

    Once the markets take a view, you can’t ignore it. Mr Lamont found that out to his cost. We would certainly be in a different world now if Brown had won the GE. Imho.

  12. RiF
    “We would certainly be in a different world now if Brown had won the GE.”

    I agree, and I’m pleased you now see things would have worked out so much better.

    ;-)

  13. @Mike N

    Hahaha.

    Got to go and make my tea now as I’m on me toddle this week. (Hence the reason I can sit on the computer all afternoon, the jobs can wait till the boss returns.

  14. Just watched the Captain Ska video on YouTube called ‘Liar, Liar. Definitely worth watching.

  15. Robert in France – “Once the markets take a view, you can’t ignore it.”

    Neither Brown or Darling ever spooked the markets.

    An unstable Tory administration, economically out of its depth, and a possible second election within the year?

    Though the markets rarely know what is best for them, they would have been happier with a continuation of Labours expansionist policy imo.

    Instead they had to settle for certainty, which is why the BoE felt it neccessary to step in and reassure them that LDs would fall in line with the Tory contraction orthodoxy.

  16. Quotes like RiF make me think of the infamous quote “who governs Britain?”

    Obviously the markets.

  17. To return to the actual poll above, one significant indicator that nobody has mentioned yet is the response to the fortnightly question Thinking about the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the government’s deficit, do you think this is…Good or bad for the economy?. This was substantially in the Government’s favour up to October, when the gap narrowed but the Government was still ahead. The only exception was the week after the first set of student “riots” when the Coalition went one point behind, just the one.

    In today’s poll they are 3% behind. The importance of this is that people may put up with suffering personally if they feel it is for the greater benefit of the country – out of patriotism and/or because of greater benefit to themselves in the long run. If however they think that their privations will not make things better in the long run, they will turn sharply against the Government. Remember that the Coalition has put all its eggs in the deficit reduction basket. If it doesn’t work or the electorate thinks it will fail, things are going to get very tough for Cameron and Clegg.

    Note in particular that less than 80% of Conservative voters think the way the deficit reduction is going is “good” and not much over half of those still supporting the Liberal Democrats

  18. i don’t know how red supporters can be so blase about the market turmoil in may when all the internataionl news media were obbsessed with linking the greek debt crisis to the british GE and there was a lot of talk about a run on the pound

    and by the by, it does not mean much that most debt is long term when the govt needs to raise 13% of GDP every year

  19. craig

    the markets have ruled Britain since Howe gave up UK sovereignty by abolishing capital controls

  20. Hi does anyone know when the coalition are predicted to change the boundaries and how is this expected to effect the polls? Thanks.

  21. Adam

    The Bill is currently in the Lords, so anything could happen. Anthony replied to me and gave a good estimate here:

    ht tp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2909?cp=3#comment-692837

    (get rid of the blank between the t’s before using – link automatically go into moderation on this site to keep the spam down)

    you may need to follow the discussion back to get all the information.

    Sorry for the delay in someone replying.

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