Sunday polls

I think there will be three polls tonight – Ipsos MORI, ICM (probably) and YouGov. Ipsos MORI’s poll in the News of the World had a sample of only 800, so presumably won’t have any voting intention figures. It finds 28% in support of the coalition’s tuition fee policy and “almost two thirds” opposed.

The Press Association coverage concentrates on one of those awful “does X make you less likely to vote for party Y” questions. You all know how lowly I rate such questions – people tend to use them to indicate support or approval for a policy regardless of how lightly it weighs upon their vote.

In this case it’s particularly difficult to tell if it’s meaningful, the PA says the poll shows 46% of “previous” Lib Dems voters are less likely to vote Liberal Democrats as a result of their stance on tuition fees. Now until we see the tables we can’t tell exactly what that means, but presumably it’s that 46% of people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 are less likely to vote Liberal Democrat because of fees. If that’s the case, then given most polls show getting on for half of 2010 Lib Dem voters wouldn’t vote Liberal Democrat tomorrow anyway, it’s hardly a surprise. “People who no longer vote Liberal Democrat less likely to vote Liberal Democrat shocker!!!”

UPDATE: Much more interesting should be this big of chunk of polling on the Liberal Democrats, commissioned by Lord Ashcroft. I haven’t had chance to look through it yet, but it looks promising.

UPDATE2: The Lord Ashcroft polling is in the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow, so clearly no ICM after all.

17 Responses to “Sunday polls”

  1. AW Thank you for your reply on the previous thread. What a relief!

    Not too much change then according to the NOTW poll. Con support clearly little affected by involvement in unpopular policies. Con support still heavily dependent on PM’s image.

  2. Yougov:
    Red 42
    Blue 40
    Yellow 9

    Approval: – 14

  3. Labour are now in the lead with every single pollster…Yougov 42/40/9….GA -14%

  4. Tories are solid at 40%. This is good for them. Labour are clearly mopping up dissatisfied Lib Dem’s. I would predict this is very soft support for Labour. All these polls totally meaningless as long as coalition last 5 years. 4 1/2 years is eternity in politics. First really test will be by-election.

    People have long memories , I would be amazed if Labour got anywhere near 40% if GE tomorrow .

  5. 9% is the 2nd worst result the Lib Dems have ever had in a poll.

    To be honest Red and Blue are so close together each week they seem to swap leads of literally no more than 4 points, which both sides can take some comfort from.

    Interesting to see how long the Liberals stay in single figures if this continues

  6. I am surprised that there is not an upsurge in people saying that they would vote for other parties, other than the main three.

    To have Lab and Cons at around 40% just shows the level of disinterest in politics. Labour have no policies and the Cons have not done much apart from kill the Lib Dems. Perhaps Cameron is more strategic than many people think. i.e. Go into coalition with the Lib Dems, make them unpopular by using them to shield unpopular policies and then win the GE with a majority by saying that they sorted out the debt mountain.

    The trouble for the Cons is that their deficit reduction plans will kill off growth in the next 3 to 4 years and that with inflation caused by increasing energy/food costs, it will leave people feeling pretty fed up. The electorate might have been in favour of getting the debt level down, but this will change if there is pain with no gain.

  7. @Jack93

    LD’s were once as low as 3%.

  8. RAF
    The 3 is often quoted but am I wrong in thinking that it was at the time of a new SDP which then joined with the Liberals?

  9. @RAF

    I apologise unreservedly you are correct. I shall rephrase it to: 9% is the second worst result the Lib Dems have had in a poll since the election.

    I do recall in the 1955 general election that the Liberals got 2.7% of the vote, but whether we can go back that far I don’t know XD

  10. @Jack

    9% – We scoff at 9% around here. It’s old news as the LDs have been 9% a few times the last month, and lower :D

  11. @ALANR

    You are quite right, to be fair they’ve been bobbing around 9-12% for quite a while and I can’t see it getting better any time soon either. I was going to make a partisan comment but I shall refrain

  12. Regardless of Labour’s standing – history tells us that Government’s lose elections rather than oppositions winning. All now rests on the economy over the next few years – and most economists are predicting bad news for the coalition.

    Ed Milliband just needs to coast along to win – but if he starts performing as well as he did last week then that will be a bonus. The economy will be the end of the Government, and possibly the coalition too – we may have an early GE.

  13. Simple–I used to vote LD now I will not.

  14. Eric Goodyear,

    Could you please enlighten us as to the identity of the “most economists” who are predicting as you suggest. The fact the economy has grown more rapidly than innitially expected in the last 3 quarters coupled with the fact I struggle to think of any organisation which has predicted the doom and gloom you suggest casts suspicion on your comments.

    Regardless of Labour’s standing – history tells us that Government’s lose elections rather than oppositions winning’

    Define government with a coalition where one of the parties is split between left wing policies supported by its voters and the other part of a handful of mps wanting power…

  16. @R Huckle.
    ” I am surprised that there is not an upsurge in people saying that they would vote for other parties, other than the main three.”

    To me, it isn’t very surprising at all.

    It is not exactly that people are disinterested in politics. It is more that the vast majority of people aren’t interested in politics to the level required in finding out about the policies of a small party (with no hope of achieving anything). To be bothered about small parties requires mental effort, and a resignation to being involved at the beginning of a struggle without any prospect of reward at all. Most people aren’t political in that sense. It is a bit cranky.

    The fact that Labour has picked up support from Lib Dem collapse is what I predicted. It is no surprise at all.

  17. The Liberals probably would have had 10-15% throughout the 1945-70 period if they had stood in nearly all the seats. (with the possible exception of 1951 which really was almost solid class voting on a very high poll).

    In that context, the 14% of 1979 was a low point for them, and it would be a surprise if that floor was reached.