There is a new Angus Reid poll over on Political Betting here, with topline figures of CON 35%(nc), LAB 40%(+3), LDEM 13%(-2). Changes are from their poll a month ago.

This equals the highest lead Labour have had from any pollsters so far since the election (the other instance was a five point lead from YouGov in mid-November, which in hindsight looked like an outlier). In their three polls so far since the election Angus Reid have tended to show the best figures for Labour of the regular pollsters, in sharp comparison to before the election when they tended to show lower Labour scores than other companies (the difference will likely be down to weighting – Angus Reid will now have good baseline data for their weightings from the answers their respondents gave in May 2010, making their job far easier).


53 Responses to “Angus Reid – 35/40/13”

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  1. First!

  2. Uuuummm………….. Another poll out of kilter with YouGov and this one showing, for the first time, I think, the Tories lower than their pretty mediocre GE showing. Lib Dems higher than YouGov too and, again, more in line with where they are with other major polling organisations. It just gets murkier and murkier, doesn’t it?

    Somewhat off the point of the polls, though. What do we think of our triumvirate in Zurich, flying the flag for England’s World Cup bid? One them a well meaning, inarticulate and slightly intellectually challenged individual, sporting a winning smile and well liked by the ladies. Another of them, slick, steeped in all the usual PR techniques with an easy charm but lightweight personality. Then our winning card. The third one has global fame and appeal, genuine charm and charisma and the one they all want to meet. Thank God for David…………………………………..BECKHAM!! lol

    (You all thought I was going to say Cameron, didn’t you!)

  3. 7 out the last 8 polls all companies have Labour at 40%. There’s consistency!!! The discrepancy is that YouGov have the Conservatives higher at LibDems expense.

  4. Nick H
    Who was then first, I thought that was David B (note not Dave in a hilarious about turn of imagery), the second was clearly Dave of Eton, but who then is the last because you say that’s DB again.???

    So i suppose who is the first is the question to you?

  5. First is obviously HRH..

    Is this an example of what Anthony has been talking about… even though some of the cuts may be popular (with the exception of tuition fees), put together their give the impression of a government ill at ease with the people of the country…

  6. Perhaps the Governor’s early assessment of Dave C. is now also the assessment of a high proportion of the electorate – hence DC’s fall from grace. He is coming across as quite unexceptional – the cares of government are taking their toll. He is not a good communicator – which is essential for a leader in this 24/7 media age. He should adopt some of the charisma in his bid-partner – David B. But has he the nous and the humility to change?

  7. There is a steady pattern now, LAB is at 40%. This is an excellent indication per se, but it gets all the more astonishing when we compare it to the general European political climate. For instance in Italy, where the possible center-left alliance (the New Olive Tree, as they/we call it) is for the first time ahead of the Berlusconian one (43 to 40, with 14 for a possible terzo polo / third pole, i.e. a centrist alliance), this 43 is the addition of no less than 6 parties: Democratic Party 24, Left, Ecology and Freedom 8, Italy of Values (left liberals) 7, Left Federation (communists) 2, Radicals 1, Greens 0,5 and Socialists 0,5. Same thing in Denmark, where the center-left is the projected winner of next year’s GE: Social Democrats 26, Popular Socialists (Green-ish) 17, Radical (Liberal) Left 5, Left Unity 3. Same in France: Socialist Party around 25, Greens 9, Left Front 6, Far Left 5. In short, there is not a single center-left party polling more than 37% (this is the possible score of the Romanian Social Democrats and the approximate result of Slovak Soc. Dem. in recent local election, whereas in the recent Regional Election in Greece socialists were the first party with 34,5), except of course the Labour of Malta, with 50-52%, but there there are only 2 parties. Bottom line: Labour is King of Europe, so UK lefties enjoy this and try to make it last.

  8. @ Virgilio
    I feel this is king under false pretences, put there by FPTP. As a leftie I would love to have the option of parties to support, say Economically left wing (nationalisation etc), anti war, anti tuition fees but pro family. all the left have in Britain is one size fits all.

  9. Hhhmmm I doubt if 40% of the voting public even know who Ed Miliband is.

    I agree it is astonishing, though, when you consider Labour polled under 30% at the GE.

    I do believe much of their added support comes from dusgruntled lib dems – and their vote is very soft.

    Proves conclusively that oppositions don’t need to say a thing and still get high polling figures.

    Let’s see what happens when Labour have to start making commitments.

  10. @virgilio

    in short, there is not a single center-left party polling more than 37%

    ———–
    hmm… this seems a little disingenuous.

    in most european countries, there are five or six (or more) established political parties. perhaps three or more on the left. same with the right.

    in order to fairly assess the ‘strength’ of the centre-left vote, therefore, you need to add these figures up. and not look to the strength of a single party.

    for example, the red-green alliance recently got 43% in the swedish general election. insufficient to form government but a way over 37% you mention.

  11. @Bert Let’s see what happens when Labour have to start making commitments.

    You mean like Cameron did before the last election? Haha. Oppositions don’t win. Governments lose so it is best to reveal as little as possible.

  12. Nick H
    I thought you could be referring to Seb Coe as the first which astonished me, but I have read your post to my wife and she thinks you mean Prince Wills.

    She agrees that he would be acceptable to ladies up to a point, but she prefers Beckham. They like to slum it a touch occasionally you know.

    On Virgilio’s points, I have difficulty thinking of labour including J Corbyn and D Miliband, as much as I do J Redwood and K Clarke.

    I think that is the problem of comparing British party labels with those of PR countries.

  13. @Howard

    On Virgilio’s points, I have difficulty thinking of labour including J Corbyn and D Miliband, as much as I do J Redwood and K Clarke.

    ———–

    A very good point Howard.

    I dont know enough about Labour but Redwood and Clarke just do not belong in the same party.

    And if the UK had a more PR system with a plurality of parties – as most of Europe does – I do not imagine that they would be in the same party for one moment!

    To my mind, the sooner the UK goes down this route the better. I can never bring myself to Vote Labour – but I can neither bring myself to vote for the likes of Redwood and their ultra-Conservatism.

    Clarke, on the other hand, I fully support. If only he was the leader of a Centrist Conservative Party!

  14. Angus Reid figures now up here:

    ht tp://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43608/opposition-labour-extends-advantage-over-tories-in-britain/

    with link to full tables etc

  15. Is Ed M playing a clever game b yrefusing to be pressurised by the media and one or two more excitable MPs into making swift policy commitments?

    There was some criticism of Ed’s performance at PMQs today but overall he seems to have done OK at PMQs generally.

    There will be a number of key announcements from Labour in the run up to the May elections and we’ll see thenhow things are really going.

  16. Interesting article on political betting where the suggestion is made that the vote on student fees has been timetabled for a week tomorrow in the evening because the Scots and the Irish MPs have normally left for their constituencies by then.

  17. @Grahambc, Chris Todd.
    I accept your points, of course the FPTP system favors major formations at the expense of minor ones, and the political system in most European countries is not directly comparable to the UK’s, but the fact remain that Labour at 40% after such a serious defeat and after 13 years in power, with all the erosion that this provokes, is amazing. Of course I am glad to have more options in the countries that I vote (France and Greece) and be able to choose between Socialist, Democratic Left, Greens etc, at least in the first round, but on the other hand there is a need for a strong pillar of center-left to avoid extreme fragmentation, as e.g. in the Netherlands, where there are 4 progressive parties and are all in opposition, while the right promotes its agenda in a very effective way.

  18. Latest YouGov/Sun results 1st Dec CON 41%, LAB 38%, LD 11%
    Latest government approval: minus 8 (Approve 38%, Disapprove 46%)

    Regards, Martyn

  19. @ Virgilio

    Agreed on all points

  20. Who’s right YouGov or the rest????

    Not going to get an answer to that are we.

  21. GrahamBC
    C Kennedy has already said he will vote against. Makes the Lib Dems look worse than ever. As Churchill (nearly) said You can rat but it takes something special to re-rat

  22. John B Dick
    I will get round to responding to some of your claims some time but thought a few people here not just Graham BC would be interested in an up-date on some of your religious points.
    I think you said the Free Church was a couple of generations behind but to my sadness they have decided you are allowed hymns now, not just unaccompanied Psalms (or Salms in Gaelic) of which I am a big fan.
    You also I think said the C of S was always years ahead on social issues. I don’t disagree but I believe things may have caught up with them and there is a serious possibility of schism next year on the gay clergy issue

  23. BTW
    The vote today on assisted death in the Scottish Parl will have confirmed a previous poster (apols) who pointed out that the Labour and SNP in Scotland are fairly socially conservative
    I have not looked at any coverage but if I heard the vote correctly the low support must have surprised?

  24. @Barney Crockett

    “As Churchill (nearly) said You can rat but it takes something special to re-rat”

    That’s a fine quote. Maybe the Lib Dems will rat and re-rat and then re-re-rat so many times that they’ll eventually come full circle and, by the time of the next election, they’ll be back re-pledging what they pledged in May 2010. It would have perfect symmetry, wouldn’t it?

    Another apt old political aphorism could be this, particularly coming from Nick Clegg. “Look, these are my principles but, if you don’t like them, I’ve got some others, you know.” Won’t be long before he turns around from the front bench, looking longingly for support from his new found allies, only to see empty benches and to hear the ghostly sound of tumbleweed blowing its way around the empty chamber. Then he may realise that his advisers, whose indiscreet comments to Washington diplomats are now appearing on Wikileaks, were right. Cameron never liked him after all!!

  25. Barney

    The agreement (I just looked) does not allow the LDs to vote against only abstain.
    If CK pursues this to the vote, he will have reneged on an agreement that he would have wished to support as Leader. I understand he abstained in the PP discussion ( i believe) but he knew what his party agreed a long time ago.

    Like the students, the time to make a fuss was then.

  26. Don’t trust Angus Reid they were always way off before the GE.
    I think they overstate the impact of negative feelings about the Governing Party and as most people rightly ort wrongly see this as the cons now this still applies.
    Roughly 40/40 10 for me still.
    BTW – Corbyn has never been anywhere near the Labour front bench.

  27. @Graham BC

    We are in a sealed room with a set of thermometers. The thermometers measure the temperature outside. They all give different answers and we do not know which if any are correct. In four-and-a-half years time we will be going outside. Question: will we need a hat, a coat, an umbrella or suntan lotion?

    Regards, Martyn

  28. @ Howard
    It is hard to make a fuss, if you are only one.

    I am no liberal but CK i view somewhat affectionately. Maybe it has reached a point where he is saying “I could take this compromise and that but now too much” The timing of the vote would suggest the Government is concerned that there is chance they could lose. I don’t think it is likely but where then.

    I am not surprised that any church that promotes Gay Clergy is at the point of schism. The Bible is very clear on that matter. Women priests is an entirely different matter.

  29. JimJam
    Corbyn has never been anywhere near the Labour front bench.

    Exactly, my point (although Chris Mullins’ and Claire Short;s appearance was entertaining ).

    AR gives a mammoth Lab majority and also Others get more seats than LDs!

  30. @ Martyn

    or sooner!!!

  31. @John C. – “… the Governor’s early assessment of Dave C.”

    I can’t comment. ;)

    However, given comments made by Adam Posen to the treasury select committee, and today’s remarks by David Blancheflower ([email protected] 17minute mark), Mervyn King was obviously in a difficult situation at the birth of the coalition. His dilemma will be a fruitful area of study for historians.

  32. GrahamBC
    Not sooner, unless Harakiri is in prospect, just look at the arithmetic. Sitting MP’s have sold their souls to get where they are (only we who have stood know about this) and whatever else they will stick to their undemanding last and enjoy the gravy train and i don;t blame them,

    Even Susan Kramer can relax now and enjoy the fruits.

  33. LOL the CAPTCHA code for me is UGUV!

    Well they can’t both be right can they. Labour supporter though I am, I still don’t give as much credence to Angus Reid or Comres as I give other pollsters, even if I like their figures at first sight. Nonetheless I think that tonight’s YouGov poll is probably down to sampling variation & that the true position is nearer to the dead-heat polls of the previous few days, with perhaps if anything Labour in a fractional lead. This is unscientific, but it’s the feeling I get.

  34. Barnaby
    Wow , your feeling – I’m sold! :-)

  35. The opposition parties can only muster 280 anyway, they would need 27 LIbDems to vote against unlikely

  36. Howard
    1 CKennedy? I may be naive and the reason for the unusual timing is the calculation that CK and others from the Highlands will have to be away?
    2″Only we who have stood know” Absolutely

  37. Barnaby
    I agree

  38. @Martyn

    “Question: will we need a hat, a coat, an umbrella or suntan lotion?”

    A paddle.

  39. virgilio
    “but the fact remain that Labour at 40% after such a serious defeat and after 13 years in power, with all the erosion that this provokes, is amazing.”

    What a strange comment. Look back to May 2010 on this and other sites. Many thought that within 6 months the Coalition would be polling badly. They correctly recognised the announcement of cuts by the Government would at least initially benefit Labour. Many Lib Dems also knew that they by going with the Tories they would suffer short term electoral damage.

    Also look at where Labour in the polls is taking votes from. Apart from the LDs it is mainly people who did not vote in the G. Election many of whom may not vote at the next GE. It is not amazing that Labour is ahead/level at this stage.

  40. @ Robin

    ROFLOL :-)

  41. Charles Kennedy didn’t vote for the Coalition and has been pretty vocal in his criticism of the whole affair.

  42. @Robin.

    Boom, boom.

    @Billy Bob

    Given the absolute horse’s arse economy King presided over for the past decade, I can’t help thinking any embarrasment King may have had during the Coalition negotiations will be the *least* of any future historian’s questions, coming some distance behind “Why is he paid so much for messing up that badly?”, “How rubbish does somebody have to *be* before they get fired”, and “Seriously, why wasn’t he hunted down and shot? Was there a bullet shortage or something?”

    Regards, Martyn

  43. My friend watched Cameron and Milliband today on PMQ’s and wondered when they’d grow up.

  44. Mike
    Looks good to me (your analysis).

    But, (cracked record follows).. If you had looked back at the discussion earlier, after one or two colleagues attempted to interpret some bullish figures on the economy as being down to the new government, (‘Wayne’ style for regulars),we seem to get carried away all too soon with the exuberance of our partisanship.

    There is a leftward reaction to the coalition, we can all agree on that, but its substantive outcome awaits the middle of next year in the May elections which should give us a trend. I believe that far more in the event column could affect that trend, simply because it always does.

  45. Howard

    I did see your earlier comments on UK economic growth but did not comment. I have always taken the view the Coalition had to make early cuts not to achieve economic growth in the short term but to avoid “melt down” which I strongly believe was likely in the absence of the cuts. Some of the economic growth may have occurred if Labour was re-elected depending on when confidence would have suffered from an economic crises.

    I have to say that it is very likely that Labour will do very well in the May local elections but it will not be a good predictor of what will happen in a GE. Looking at last times LA results and how many Council seats the main parties hold I predict Labour will take a huge number from the Tories – as the main opposition party tends to do after a GE – but we will have little idea of what would happen in a GE if held 4 years later.

  46. @virgilio

    Here is a plot of Red’s performance:

    h ttp://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/5211788982/

    * The x axis is number of days since a General Election
    * The thin solid lines are the best and worst Red has polled on that day since 1992
    * The thin dotted lines are the best and worst Red has polled on that day since 1987 (note that in most cases, the solid lines and the dotted lines overlay each other)
    * The thick line is the best and worst Red has polled on each day since the 2010 general election, to Nov 17th 2010

    What does this graph tell us?

    * Red poll highly. They polled highly during 92-97, 97-01 and 01-05, and went on to win. They polled highly during 87-92 and 05-10, and went on to lose. That Red polls highly is not a surprise: it’s what Red has done for the past thirty years.
    * Red are currently polling as highly as, say, Neil Kinnock did during this point in 1987, or John Smith did during this point in 1992, or Tony Blair was in 2005. They aren’t polling as well as Tony Blair was in 1997, or 2001.
    * A counterintuitive conclusion from this is: if Red want to win the 2015 election, they have to change their leader, since no Red leader polling this badly at this point has gone on to win the next election… :-)

    Regards, Martyn

  47. @JimJam
    BTW – Corbyn has never been anywhere near the Labour front bench.
    More’s the shame. That’s where I’d hazard drawing any comparisons with the continental Left – Labour is no longer a big tent for the Left, it’s restricted down to a very New Labour faction these days – which isn’t terribly left (authoritarian neoliberalism?)!

    @ Howard
    Like the students, the time to make a fuss was then.
    No it wasn’t. A coalition with the Tories does not amount to kertowing to the Tories the amount that the Lib Dems have done, especially not on such a fundamental principle of the party. Most students may not have been enarmoured with the thought of a Tory-Lib Dem coalition, but they were willing to give them the benefit of doubt and see what happens. It’s became clear over the past months, they’ve got the Tory manifesto.

    @ Martyn
    I liked the analogy.

    @ Martyn
    * A counterintuitive conclusion from this is: if Red want to win the 2015 election, they have to change their leader, since no Red leader polling this badly at this point has gone on to win the next election…
    But unlike all those ’87, ’92, ’97, ’01 etc comparisons the left vote wasn’t split. For the first time since the 70’s, we’ll have an election where the left will be relatively united under one party, and it’s doubtful that Clegg will be “siphoning” them again. There’s consistently about 2.5% ie 1/4 in the Lib Dem vote that I’d class as leftist (unhappy with the coalition, unhappy with the cutting, would choose Ed Miliband rather than Cameron, would rather a Labour coalition…and so on) but the rest are Liberals. Not only that, but with the UKIP and BNP, and the Greens and Nationalists, both sides are about equally split for a change.

  48. Yes I am with you Craig analogies with the past are no longer relevant because we were not dealing with a coalition government.

    I also think that it is very early days yet, Miliband does still have time and perhaps what he is doing behind the scenes is more important and the cuts effects are only just beginning. I am not convinced that we will go the full 5 years though.

  49. @grahambc

    “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”

    George Santayana, 1863-1952, see h ttp://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/George_Santayana

    Regards, Martyn

  50. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”

    Yeah. How about…

    “Those who cannot forget the past are ConDem’d to repeat it”

    Hmm, doesn’t quite work. Suggestions?

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