YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%.

On the regular approval trackers everyone is down – government approval is minus 14, with 50% disapproving of this government for the first time. David Cameron’s net rating drops to plus 2, still positive but the lowest he has recorded as Prime Minister (he recorded much lower scores as Leader of the Opposition back in 2007). Nick Clegg’s approval rating plummets to minus 22, down from minus 13 a week ago and by far his lowest ever score as leader. Ed Miliband’s approval rating has also dropped into negative territory for the first time, down to minus 9 (28% think he is doing well, 37% doing badly).

On the topical questions of the week, YouGov first asked a series of questions about the Euro and Ireland. As with the YouGov/Sun questions earlier in the week, just under half (48%) of respondents opposed Britain bailing out Ireland, with 36% supporting it. There was overwhelming (74%) rejection of Britain bailing out other European countries such as Portugal. Only 22% agreed with the statement that Britain’s economy was reliant upon our exports to other countries and therefore it was in our interests to help the Eurozone avoid a crisis, 60% think Britain has its own problems and cannot afford to help.

On the Euro, 76% think – in hindsight – ther Britain would have been worse off had we joined the Euro, and 54% think the Euro has been mainly bad for the other countries in the European Union (only 16% see it as a good thing for the Eurozone). However, there is some recognition that this doesn’t necessarily mean its collapse would be a good thing – only 26% think it would be good if the Euro collapsed, 34% a bad thing.

On the broader question of Britain’s relationship with the EU, 10% would like a more integrated Europe, 14% the status quo, 38% a less integrated Europe and 26% Britain’s total withdrawal from the European Union.

There were also a couple of questions on Howard Flight. 42% thought Flight was wrong about the effect of the government’s cuts in child benefit, and 46% thought that his peerage should be halted.

Finally, there were a series on questions on the Royal Wedding, which generally showed approval for the choice of date and the bank holiday. Only 19% objected to the idea of the wedding being held just before the AV referendum. On titles, 20% now think Camilla should become Queen when Charles becomes King (39% backing Princess Consort, the title it was announced she we would use when Charles and Camilla married, 26% some other title). YouGov also asked whether Kate Middleson should become Princess of Wales, should William be created Prince of Wales in due course. 74% think she should, 13% she shouldn’t.


178 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – 40/40/9”

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  1. Ian C

    Funny how you mention’rw troll’,a bit like the tory MP getting arrested for his quip about stoning.

    I don’t remember hearing about arrests for all the hate & bile thrown at MT over the years.

    I can’t even write the things i read everyday written by the ‘lw’ in hundreds of forums.

    Equal rules,or no rules.

    I don’t see many teenage girls on this forum,so i think we should let Garry K off.

  2. @Robin

    Explain to me what the Irish could have done differently that would have made any difference?

  3. The Irish could have nationalised the banks that were in trouble separated the good debt and bad debt. Then hold the bad debt on a long term basis. This is not my idea but the idea of a friend of mine who is certainly not on the left.

  4. @IAN C
    I only spelt carriers wrong by accident and I did say sorry.

  5. @Neil A

    “Explain to me what the Irish could have done differently that would have made any difference”

    I’ve no idea whether anything could have been done. Not my point. I was pointing out the almost unlimited capacity of economists and politicians for self-delusion.

    Concerning the Office for S&M’s forecasts, I’d be interested to know what inflator/deflator they are using to assess the impact of reduced aggregate demand resulting from the spending cuts. And how sensitive their predictions are to that parameter. Right-wing economists are fond of using inflators little greater than 1. Many others (not necessarily particularly left-wing) espouse factors up to as high as 10. That represents the difference between “the private sector picking up the slack” and “a catastrophic reduction in demand leading to a second recession”. Knowing where the OSM has pitched it’s flag would tell us a lot about how much faith to put in their forecasts.

  6. Sorry, “its” not “it’s”.

  7. Robin

    I thought we had put this argument to bed.

    The Irish mess is primarily caused by the housing boom that has bust the banks.

    This constant rant by the left about the tories wanting to emulate them,with their lower tax is laughable.

    Hands up! its a fair cop,the only thing that is keeping the Irish from a fate worse than what they are suffering at the moment,is their CT levels and overall lower tax levels than that of countries such as the UK.

    No main party,not even the Labour party in the Republic of Ireland want to touch their CT rate.

    The Greens also back the low taxes for business,yes even the Greens!! who are in government in the Republic.

    The only way the UK is likened to the Republic of Ireland is our massive housing boom & bust.Thank nice Mr Brown for that & of course AD who flipped houses 4 times,playing the housing market instead of cooling it.

  8. @IAN C

    Who is Martin?

  9. “The Irish mess is primarily caused by the housing boom that has bust the banks.”

    See my earlier answer. Not my point.

  10. Ian C,
    We did warn you!

  11. @GrahamBC,

    I don’t think there’s much difference between nationalising the banks and guaranteeing their debts, if you don’t have enough money to actually meet that obligation. A nationalised bank by definition transfers its debt obligations to the host country. If it defaults then the money comes straight from the treasury. If the treasury can’t pay then the whole government is bankrupt.

    The scheme worked OK for Northern Rock but that’s only because everyone knew the UK was good for the money.

  12. Of course you do then have the assets of the banks not just paying for the debt, this makes the balanc sheet healthier, especially as in the UK most banks are turning over a profit now. It would also give the govt direct control over the bonuses paid and the levels of lending to businesses.

  13. I don’t think Ireland’s banks are quite so lucrative as the UK’s.

  14. The OBR get my vote.

    So far, we have seen some sensible actions coming from their economic forecasts. Fewer public sector redundancies, housing benefit cap delayed; Roland & I may even get to keep ‘our’ Harriers.

    Does anybody want to bet against there being some scaling back of tuition fees ‘ere long?

    Does anybody want to bet against the public sector being bigger by 2015 than it was when the Coalition took office?
    8-)

  15. @ Neil A,

    would expect you are right but the other advantages remain, plus if this had been done instead of austerity, they might have been more lucrative.

  16. Latest Voodoo poll:

    Fox News’s website asks its readers: “Do You Think WikiLeaks Is a Terrorist Organization?” And it seems that 68% of them do. “This is not a scientific poll,” the site warns.
    8-)

  17. @Wolf – Not a specific count, more of a wide ranging survey, but I daresay they will compile tallies at some point:

    h ttp://www.guardian.co.uk/society/series/cutswatch

  18. @AMBER
    I did hope after the cancellation of the US carrier born fast jets the Harrier would get a reprieve. However we have nothing to confirm that. Therefore, the carrier (s) will be useless for 10 years.

  19. Until we get a poll later tonight to discuss, I wonder if anybody saw Paxman’s interview with Christopher Hitchens tonight on BBC 2. I’ve always admired Hitchens, although disagreeing with many of his views, particularly on religion, but it was a wonderful piece of television. Clearly seriously all, quite possibly terminally so, it was a joy to witness his rare articulacy and razor sharp intellect. Still as combative as ever, and true to his original socialist beliefs, it reminded me of that classic interview Melvyn Bragg carried out with Dennis Potter many years ago, when a dying Potter, between taking regular painkilling swigs from a morphine laced flask, reflected powerfully and wistfully on his life and times. Rarely have I been as moved and inspired in equal measure as I revelled in listening to a man far more intelligent and lucid than me articulating so many of the things I believed in and held dear. I still have an old VHS video of that Potter interview and on occasions, when depressed and in despair, get it out and play it again, just so I can think and feel better about life. I particularly liked the fact that as he lit up one of his regular cigarettes he told Bragg that he called the little devils “Rupert”, named after his bete noire Murdoch!

    Hitchens didn’t quite scale Potter’s heights tonight but I was moved and saddened at the thought that a man of such great intellect, independence of mind and humanity may about to be taken away from us. A rare piece of inspiring and uplifting television by the nation’s public service broadcaster.

  20. @NEIL A
    What would be the outcome if Spain has to go cap in hand, Spain struggles but Banco Santander is one of the strongest banks on the planet.

  21. @grahambc

    You said “…The Irish could have nationalised the banks that were in trouble separated the good debt and bad debt. Then hold the bad debt on a long term basis. This is not my idea but the idea of a friend of mine who is certainly not on the left…”

    Er, that is (near enough) what they did do. They did guarantee the bank deposits (which we did, well a bit), they did nationalise Anglo-Irish Bank (near enough), and they did create a bad bank. The bad bank is called NAMA, more formally the National Asset Management Agency, where the Irish government bought property loans which, although they have a nominal value in the billions, have an actual value of zero (something you can’t sell is worthless by definition). And it has gone horribly, horribly wrong…

    Regards, Martyn

    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo_Irish_Bank
    * h ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Asset_Management_Agency

  22. Thank you Martyn looking it up

  23. On Spain and Santander.

    I have followed for months the debate about ‘recession’ whose fault is it (was) and I do note a gradual abandonment of partisan diatribe and a welcome dip into logical thought and informed analysis..

    We are agreed that banks should not lend to people who cannot pay it back and we are agreed governments should not flout Mr Micauber’s rule (discovered equally too late by the PIIGS).

    Being a member of the euro zone has zilch to do with the problems of the PIIGS. They brought it all on themselves. The Managers of the EU (that’s Germany, Benelux and France) failed to ensure that the rules of the club were being adhered to at the edges and thus we are where we are (no they are where they are).

    What I do not understand is why analysts here seem to rejoice in that these recalcitrants have diminished the value of the euro somewhat. That is to our detriment. Then they say ‘thanks goodness we are not in the euro’.

    Sorry, the above named countries are thinking, ‘thank goodness the unreliable Brits didn’t join, otherwise we might have to bail them out too’.

    It’s all according to where your sitting, I think.

    Not many days now to VAT bombshell.

    Tonight 42 38 10

  24. @Nick Hadley – Thanks, just watched the interview on iplayer.
    A courageous performance. Interesting about how only a ‘contemptible God’ would find Pascal’s wager acceptable ;) . Touching comments about the letters he has received, and the ones he regrets not writing.

  25. Latest YouGov/Sun voting intention – CON 40% LAB 40% LDEM 10%.
    Latest government approval: minus 6 (Approve 39%, Disapprove 45%)

    Regards, Martyn

  26. yougov

    lab 40

    con 40

    ld 10

    -6 approval

  27. @Howard,

    I agree that the Euro is not a central issue in the problems experienced by the Republic, but I certainly think it didn’t help. Apart from anything else it gave the citizens of that country a sense of being on an unending gravy train financed from the continent, when in fact it was financed by voodoo in the financial markets.

    I think they would probably have been in a better position had they kept the Punt, but not without serious problems. Ultimately they managed their banking sector the way Iceland managed theirs, and the krona was no protection for the Icelanders.

    Am I very glad the UK didn’t join? Oh yes.

  28. Odd really. Yesterday seems to be a complete outlier on approval but right down the middle on vote shares. Wierd.

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