ITV Wales have published their monthly YouGov poll of voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly elections next year. The topline figures, with changes from last month, are:

Constitutency: CON 21%(+2), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), PC 21%(nc)
Regional: CON 20%(+2), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc), PC 20%(-3)

On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour take Blaenau Gwent), these would give Labour 30 seats, 1 short of an overall majority of 31. Incidentally, in the comments last month someone raised the possibility of UKIP sneaking a seat at the regional level. On the current levels of support they wouldn’t, obviously it all depends on the exact configuration of seats and support, but as things stand it would take roughly 7% or so support for them to get a regional seat. In this latest poll they are at 4%, down from 6% a month ago.

54 Responses to “Latest Welsh Assembly polling”

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  1. What a sad situation. The Welsh get a monthly YouGov poll courtesy of ITV Wales, but no one comments.

    Lots of Scots would like to comment on a Scottish poll, but none of the Scottish media commission one! :-(

  2. I was just thinking the same.

  3. Anthony,

    Given that the 1997 referendum saw a 50.!% turnout I find it implausible that the ‘don’t know/won’t vote’ figures for the Assembly referendum question is so low. Any possibility of discussing with ITV Wales adding a supplementary on likelihood to vote in March’s referendum?

  4. Bit of a ghost town here today. All we need is some tumbleweeds.

  5. One might assume then that the drop in UKIP vote has moved mostly into the Conservative column?

  6. There will be a few close run things especially where plaid has small majorities. Will having two referendums make a difference? Is there any seriousness to Plaid reluctance to get back in coalition based on perceived Labour coldness to extending devolution?

  7. Presumably Lib dems would be as keen to get in to coalition with Labour as in Scotland?

  8. OLD NAT
    Could the distinct lack of polling in Scotland, be to do with the comment from a lady living in the east end of Glasgow, during the last GE. “We don’t do politics here hen, we are Labour”.

  9. It would be difficult for the reds and yellows to team up – pc will not join with the blues – blues and yellows will be short of a majority. Could UKIP hold the balance of power and join with the reds?

    I am no expert on matters Welsh, but from what I know of UKIP and Labour, the chances of any accomodation is zero.

  11. Discussed on the previoud thread was how PC and Lab got on better than sNP/Lab. The current Welsh administration has been a success, I did not know PC were reluctant to continue. It could be pre election posturing. Mind you if Lab won 30 seats a minority (well 50%) government would be quite feasible, a PC/Lab coalition is the only other realistic possibility.

  12. You get the impression Labour in Wales are quite sensible

  13. You get the impression Labour in Wales are quite sensible
    In most other places too, if you form your own opinion instead of listening to hysterical, anti-Labour rhetoric.

    Many of us lefties think Labour are, in fact, too sensible… we’d like them to be a bit more radical, actually.

  14. amber

    i’d like them to get a bit more radical too

    PR as their number one manifesto commitment would almost be radical enough for me

  15. Looks like Labour will gain Cardiff North, Blaenau Gwent, Clwyd West and preseli Pemb

    the lib dems will lose montgom to the tories

    Llanelli will be interesting.

  16. Another interesting thing about the poll is that it looks like Labour are mobilising the young vote, that’s great to see.

  17. A Brown

    “young vote” or “young people”? There’s a difference.

  18. I think young people are mobilising themselves, Labour couldn’t mobilise a custard party @ Ambrosia at the moment. They’re just taking photo opportunities and whinging about a couple of throwaway, admittedly stupid, Tory comments.

    @ Old Nat

    Right on, the numbers protesting seemed to be bolstered by a lot of 15 & 16 year olds.

  19. They wont gain Cardiff North. Conservative support there is too strong.

  20. @A Brown

    “Another interesting thing about the poll is that it looks like Labour are mobilising the young vote, that’s great to see.”

    Labour always had big leads amongst the 18 to 24 year old age group in terms of voting intentions, in fact it still does, although the growth in Lib Dem support over recent years has eaten into this somewhat. They’re also a notoriously unreliable group of voters in terms of turning out to vote, or even registering to do so in the first place. These factors to some extent have mitigated against Labour’s in built advantage in this demographic group, and have prevented it being quite the electoral asset it might have been.

    Now, the recent genuine anger expressed by students about the tripling of tuition fees, and the complicity of the Lib Dem leadership in bringing this about despite their pre-election pledges to do otherwise, presents some intriguing possibilities for Labour. If I was Messrs Miliband and Burnham I would be mulling over mid to long term opportunities to cultivate a new generation of activists and engaged voters, unlikely to flirt with Mr Clegg and his friends again, and almost genetically indisposed to the Conservatives. If Mr Miliband’s current almost Zen like calm is evidence of him thinking long term, then how he mobilises and enthuses the young voters of this country must be one of those factors exercising his mind and, maybe, even tantalising him with some thoughts of what could be.

  21. @WOLF
    You are of course at liberty to listen to hysterical anti coalition rhetoric and believe every word.

  22. YouGov results up

    C:30 L:30 LD: 30 Others: 10

    Groundhog Day again.

    When I was 16 to 21 years of age in the 1960s, I was not genetically indisposed to the Tory party, indeed I was just as keen as I am now, but with a bloody site more energy. Does this make me different to other people? I have tried to take solace from the fact we currently have a Tory led government, but posts such as yours leave me disconcerted about my genes.

    Worried of Buckinghamshire.

  24. Well, I suppose the reaction to the Welsh poll is that UKPR is EandSPR (only no SPR to discuss Old Nat, nor UPR Eoin).

  25. yougov
    lab 39
    con 42
    ld 10

  26. Latest YouGov/Sun results 25th Nov
    CON 42%, LAB 39%, LD 10%;
    approval: -8

    Regards, Martyn

  27. Vast improvement for coalition parties due to pictures of Ma’am in Aby Dahbi on lunchtime news.

  28. @ Steve, Old Nat

    Right on, the numbers protesting seemed to be bolstered by a lot of 15 & 16 year olds.
    Of course 15 & 16 year olds are protesting about university fees. Unless I am mistaken, they are the students who may well be paying the £9k x 3+ years for their degrees.

  29. Alright so it’s Abu Dhabi!

  30. @Nick Hadley

    The fact that Labour introduced tuition fees and then top-up fees, breaking two of their own pledges not to, does not make me think that young people will be running into the arms of the Labour party over the fees issue. At 27, I’m still dealing with the debt and wouldn’t touch the party with a 40 foot barge-pole.

    The LD party still have the chance to come out of the fees issue a damn sight better than Labour did. If enough LD MPs rebel and the policy isn’t passed, they’ll gain much more credibility than the Labour party ever had on this issue. Unlike Labour MPs, who had a stonking majority and broke their manifesto pledges, it would be a show of principle from the LD MPs who have more to lose due to the coalition arrangement.

    Such a defeat would obviously have negative effects on the stability of the coalition and the reputation of the LD leadership, but on the fees issue they’d have a better reputation for integrity than Labour could ever have.

  31. Amber

    Not sure why you included me in that post.

  32. Hi Folks,

    Interesting poll from YouGov, 4 1/2 years to next GE!

  33. This polling – if we ignore PC for the obvious reason – reflects national trends, Labour mopping up disgruntled LD’s, Conservatives good but level, LD’s falling.

    Should see Labour back to their 2003 situation, possibly with a stray LD seat going to PC somewhere (?)

  34. @ Nick Hadley

    Labour always had big leads amongst the 18 to 24 year old age group in terms of voting intentions, in fact it still does…
    The YG cross-breaks for UK VI may interest you.

    In the recent polls where Con has been ahead of Labour, the youth vote has been key to the Con lead:

    19th Con 40 Lab 38 Youth vote: 38/38
    22nd Con 41 Lab 38 Youth vote: 46/32
    25th Con 42 Lab 39 Youth vote: ? Cross-breaks not on YG site yet – but I will check asap.

    In the poll that had Labour 5 points ahead of the Cons:
    16th Con 37 Lab 42 Youth vote: 26/49

    There is either:
    1. Much volatility in the youth vote & it doesn’t necessarily break for Labour; or
    2. YG has an unusually volatile panel in its 18-24 years old group.

    If we assume that history & your intuition is correct, Nick, then the Con leads that have been reported by YG on the 19th, 22nd & 25th (?) are MOE leads; the error most likely being in the youth category, IMO.

  35. Things are warming up in Wales, could get very feisty over
    the referendum! next few months will be very interesting especially on Dec 16th when it officially starts, can’t wait myself (-;
    there’s some brilliant blogs happening too, well worth a look.

  36. BTW, i find it very hard to remain non partisan LOL!!!

  37. listening to cricket, up early.
    Cameron’s attack on Ed.M hurt, rang true.

    Labour has no theme to offer at this stage.

    Not good enough

  38. @Chris Lane

    Ed M was up before John Humphries on Today (R4) this morning.

    Not much of an advance on any of his leadership hustings performances so far, but worth a listen when it comes onto iplayer (in final hour of the programme).

  39. Gareth
    Which blogs?

  40. @ A BROWN

    “Looks like Labour will gain Cardiff North, Blaenau Gwent, Clwyd West and preseli Pemb

    the lib dems will lose montgom to the tories

    Llanelli will be interesting.”

    Carmarthen W looks like a far more likely Red gain than Cardiff North, which even on these figures might be too close to call. I’d be reluctant to call Montgomery either way at the moment. Caerphilly could also end up being interesting with a strong independant last time now Plaid’s candidate, but I think Labour will be strong enough to hold on there.

  41. I don’t see why PC wouldn’t want another coalition with Labour in Wales: as a Welsh resident it seems to have worked incredibly well, we dont see splits or division reported and it has been stable for three and a half years now.

    I also think the Assembly Government’s approach to cuts is much better than the UK Government one. Not ringfencing health in Wales was a good idea, it means that our other budgets are falling much less than in England… it just seems fairere to do it our way.

    So after May’s election its going to be status quo or Labour alone.

  42. there is a scottish poll out. labour has increased its lead over the SNP to 10%

  43. Please, can you give us more details of the Scottish poll.

  44. @Tonotim: Camarthen W will be a Labour Gain, i also think with Julie Morgan (the ex mp) standing in Cardiff North for Labour should take that seat back you could see her personal vote in the general election result.

    Caerphilly i think any other year Ron Davies would have taken Labour out but not now i would hedge a guess that Labour will do it with ease.

    Llanelli i honesly believe Plaid will hold Helen Mary Jones is a big name in thier party.

    If you check the region figures in the break down the Lib Dems fall below 6% in two regions and lose thier North Wales seat and thier South Wales East seat to the Tories so if they lose montgomery they are down to three seats.

    I also think one to watch will be Cardiff Central it will be interesting to see how much damage Labour do to the Lib Dem vote

  45. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the Lib-Dems lose Cardiif central, but hold Montgomery.

    I’d also be wary of using the regional cross-breaks from one poll like that, as the sample size will almost certainly be too small to be meaningful.

  46. Amber,

    ‘If we assume that history & your intuition is correct, Nick, then the Con leads that have been reported by YG on the 19th, 22nd & 25th (?) are MOE leads; the error most likely being in the youth category, IMO.’

    Looking at the data tables, last night’s YG is probably a good example of why it’s dangerous to read too much into the cross-breaks!
    I think the only one that has been reasonably consistent in trend/pattern and impact on blue/red VI has been the male/female splits, but even saying that will probably get me into trouble……

  47. There are some strange dynamics in Welsh elections. For one thing it’s impossible to consider Wales as one country.
    The Welsh heartlands are dominated by Plaid and for many years anyone who stood for Plaid would win in both GE and Assembly.
    Oddly, though, Plaid in the Fro Cymraeg is conservative with a small “c” and the electorate voting for them comes from scattered rural communities and some centres of population where the main employment is Public sector and therefore wholly Welsh speaking.
    With this in mind, and also bearing in mind the 10,000 vote fall in Plaid support at the GE (Mostly in the heartlands), Will Ieuan Wyn Jones lose ynys Mon?
    The challenger who has emerged for the Tories is “The Druid” AKA Paul Williams. Llangefni educated, widely travelled, articulate and intelligent, speaks Welsh, Japanese and German and,of course, has a ready made forum and following as the Druid.
    Ynys Mon has a tradition of returning the incumbent going back to Megan Lloyd George but Plaid voters in the heartlands hate Labour more than they hate Tories and there is a lot of disquiet over the coalition in Wales.
    Coupled with this, the Assembly referendum is going to wake the voters. Previously residents of English origin did not vote in Assembly elections. This time I predict an upsurge in the “Grey” immigrant, Conservative vote.

    A very good post, if I may say. The facts you mention are utterly correct. You are somewhere in between my two children in terms of age and my son feels exactly like you. My daughter, born the year the harridan Thatcher took power got a free education.
    However, as a young man you should get your genes checked if you dislike Labour. Apparently, it is a genetic fault if you are young and not a foaming at the mouth marxist.

  49. The other thing to consider is the Student Vote. Cardiff Central and Ceredigion are very vulnerable to Student organised voting. Cardiff central might easily fall, especially as Cardiff is getting increasingly annoyed with the LIb/Plaid council coalition.

    Ceredigion went from being a marginal LIbDem seat at the GE to being a solid LIBDem seat. The previous GE saw Conservatives and Labour vote tactically for the LibDem candidate to remove Plaid.

    Plaid are incumbent with a good majority in the Assembly so are they safe? Not necessarily. As I said, the English immigrants don’t come to the polls for Assembly elections as a rule, but this time may be different. Conservatives will support the LibDems because of the Westminster situation but Labour voters are not enamoured of Plaid and may also grit their teeth and vote LibDem.
    Many Labour voters would rather see a minority Labour Assembly Government than another coalition with a Plaid party that is consistently sniping at them.
    That may be counterbalanced by the Student vote but its not a certainty.

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