ITV Wales have published their monthly YouGov poll of voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly elections next year. The topline figures, with changes from last month, are:

Constitutency: CON 21%(+2), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), PC 21%(nc)
Regional: CON 20%(+2), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 9%(nc), PC 20%(-3)

On a uniform swing (and assuming Labour take Blaenau Gwent), these would give Labour 30 seats, 1 short of an overall majority of 31. Incidentally, in the comments last month someone raised the possibility of UKIP sneaking a seat at the regional level. On the current levels of support they wouldn’t, obviously it all depends on the exact configuration of seats and support, but as things stand it would take roughly 7% or so support for them to get a regional seat. In this latest poll they are at 4%, down from 6% a month ago.

54 Responses to “Latest Welsh Assembly polling”

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  1. @JH JONES
    Many thanks for a bit of local intelligence, it reminds me of Old Nat instructing me on Scottish issues some time ago. There is so much more to it than England despite the huge difference in population.
    Big City working class = Labour
    Leafy Suburbs / Shires = Tory
    Those fed up with both = LD
    The others don’t amount to a hill of beans.

  2. @ J H Jones

    Ceredigion will be a Plaid hold at the Assemby. Elin Jones, the badger butcher, is a very popular and strong local cannidate, and is another big name in Plaid (she is currently the Rural Affairs Minister).

    I think that it will be Labour just shy of an overall majority, and another term of the Labour-Plaid coalition. As far as I am aware, neither Plaid nor Labour have ruled out a 2nd term of the One Wales coalition, and indeed both seem to be heading towards that way.

    Also, it is difficult to see a Labour-Lib Dem coalition working, given that the Welsh Lib Dems are defending their Westminister counterparts, without question. Nor do I see Plaid going into coalition with the Tories and the Lib Dems, not with how they are treating S4C. (unless they get some deal over S4C from the ConDems)

    Also Carwyn Jones, the leader of the Welsh Labour Party, has stated he doesn’t want a minority Labour govt.

  3. @ Mike N
    Bit of a ghost town here today. All we need is some tumbleweeds

    A number of reds have gone to pastures green.

    @ Gruffdog

    “The LD party still have the chance to come out of the fees issue a damn sight better than Labour did. If enough LD MPs rebel and the policy isn’t passed, they’ll gain much more credibility than the Labour party ever had on this issue. Unlike Labour MPs, who had a stonking majority and broke their manifesto pledges, it would be a show of principle from the LD MPs who have more to lose due to the coalition arrangement.
    Such a defeat would obviously have negative effects on the stability of the coalition and the reputation of the LD leadership, but on the fees issue they’d have a better reputation for integrity than Labour could ever have.”

    Or more likely they’ll sit on their hands and let it pass. What will that do for the reputation of the Lib Dems?

  4. I’ve posted on here before that there are 31 FPTP seats which have been won by Labour in at least one Assembly election, which suggests that they have the votes out there to win a small overall majority on FPTP seats only, without needing any regional top-ups.

    There are seven FPTP seats which Labour won in either 1999 or 2003, but don’t currently hold: Clwyd W, Carmarthenshire W, Llanelli, Blaenau Gwent, Aberconwy, Preseli Pembrokeshire and Cardiff N. Most of these have a wafer-thin majority for them to attack (4 Tory, 2 PC, 1 Ind).

    For me, that makes these seven (along with Cardiff C as an obvious further LD-held target) the most interesting seats next May.

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