Polls tonight

I’m at a meeting tonight, but I’m expecting a new ICM poll along with the usual daily YouGov poll for the Sun. Feel free to use this thread to discuss them.


39 Responses to “Polls tonight”

  1. Hello all. Just poking my head above the parapit and I can say that the last week of Labour leads are quite disapointing. (for me and them)

    I was expecting Labour to be at least 10 to 15 points ahead by now. I do have an opinion but I am afraid it breaches this websites non partisan policy.

    I also find the daily YouGov polls a bit tiresom; the election is over. It seems that the Whigs have taken a bit of a dramatic shave in their poll ratings. Probaly lots of Labour symphasizers flying the coup?

    I don’t for the life of me, think that I can predict YouGovs figures but let me have a go with ICMs

    40/40/10 with a margin of 5% either way.

    (the whig share should be a lot higher)

  2. “I was expecting Labour to be at least 10 to 15 points ahead by now. ”

    Really? That’s a bit ambitious. Let’s not forget how unpopular Labour were before the election. It took years before the Tories got to level pegging with Labour after the 1997 election, this time around parity has been achieved within 6 months. This time next year I would expect Labour to have a healthy lead as cuts and tax increases begin to bite.

  3. ICM Poll Results:

    Labour: 38%
    Conservatives: 36%
    Liberal Democrats: 14%
    Others: 12%

  4. Someone on Political Betting is reporting the ICM figures, although I don’t have other confirmation:

    Labour 38 +2
    Tories 36 -3
    Lib Dems 14 -2

  5. @ANDY JS
    I should not be surprised if that is not about right.

  6. Someone on political betting is right.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/nov/22/labour-pulls-ahead-guardian-icm-poll

    They’re already up on guardian website.

  7. @ Andy JS

    I would guess that would be more accurate then my figures. Then again, I reckon I predicted YouGovs.

  8. The underlying trend seems to suggest Labour ahead.

    Tories have made a sting of recent mis-steps. In HE, the teacher training change smacks of political interference.

  9. Certainly seems to firm up the impression of a Labour lead, but in a way it’s nothing new given that it’s a month since the last ICM. Just catching up with the herd really.

    I think a barely present Labour lead is the true situation.

  10. @LIAM
    Perhaps you missed that the current You Gov poll puts the Conservatives ahead. However, you might be right, Labour may be very marginally in front. But I should love to know more about the “string of mistakes”.
    If you think the change regarding teacher training in Higher Education has registered one jot with the general public I should think again. This kind of thing has no impact whatsoever on the polls. Another disgruntled teacher I take it.

  11. Yep, Andy – the ICM figures you quoted earlier are indeed correct and up on the Guardian website now.

    Very interesting analysis of the the Lib Dem vote;

    “The Lib Dem score is the lowest in the Guardian/ICM series since May 2001, and the lowest in any ICM poll since October 2007.

    While 91% of the 2010 Conservative voters would vote that way again, and 93% of 2010 Labour voters, only 47% of 2010 Lib Dem voters plan to do the same.

    The impact of the party’s U-turn on tuition fees is clear. Lib Dem support is now lower among voters aged 18-24 than among any other age group. By contrast, in the final election Guardian/ICM poll Lib Dem support was highest among young voters.”

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/nov/22/labour-pulls-ahead-guardian-icm-poll

  12. Yep, Andy – the ICM figures you quoted earlier are indeed correct and up now on the Guardian website’s main page.

    Very interesting analysis of the the Lib Dem vote;

    “The Lib Dem score is the lowest in the Guardian/ICM series since May 2001, and the lowest in any ICM poll since October 2007.

    While 91% of the 2010 Conservative voters would vote that way again, and 93% of 2010 Labour voters, only 47% of 2010 Lib Dem voters plan to do the same.

    The impact of the party’s U-turn on tuition fees is clear. Lib Dem support is now lower among voters aged 18-24 than among any other age group. By contrast, in the final election Guardian/ICM poll Lib Dem support was highest among young voters.”

  13. Kyle. I am quite enjoying the almost daily opinion polls. It is a relatively new phenomenon. The collapse of Lib Dem support is, as you say, the most interesting thing we have seen in the polls since May. While polls don’t matter that much, I don’t think politicians ignore them altogether. The Tories have picked up a third of the disillusioned Lib Dems and Labour the rest. Labour are in quite good spirits considering they just went down to one of their worst ever results.

    If the Lib Dems lose the AV vote and stay at around 10% for the next four years, panic might set in! I don’t much fancy being a Lib Dem cabinet minister attending the party conference in those eminently possible circumstances.

  14. Okay that is the ICM figures up. Well done Andy. Let me now officialy predict YouGovs. It is a bit like getting blood from a stone but like I said for my rather pathetic attempt for an ICM prediction. 40/40/10 with a margin of error of 5% either way.

    I would also assume that the Labour leads are because of the tuition fee business? Or the drip drip affect of the cuts? I would say both.

  15. My guess/prediction for YG is 38/42/10

  16. If I was Ed M I would get on with key elements of the policy review as quickly as possible – he should prepare the Labour party for what could be difficult times particularly for the Lib Dems. The impact of losing many local authorities where they are in full control or share power could be traumatic.

    The Lib Dems troubles will be reinforced by the public anger as the cuts bite and again they are likely to take an undue amount of the blame.

    For what it’s worth I think Labour need to think outside the box aboiut the cuts. Cuts of the level Osborne proposes will be disastrous for many and the 2.5% rate VAT rise will also hurt many poorer people.

    Cuts of about half what Osborne proposes plus abandonment of the VAT rise could be paid for by a 2p temporary rise in income tax rates. for 2 years combined with an increase in personal allowances for the lower paid.. You could also permanently restore child benefit for people on higher rate tax and they’d still be better of off even with the income tax surcharge.

    The increase in public sector unemployment would be reduced by 50%, tax revenues would be higher growth could be sustained.

    Go for it Ed!

  17. IAN C
    I cannot argue with any of that Ian, for a change. Probably the most intelligent Labour supporter on this blog is Amber Star. She looks forward to Labour overtaking the JOINT score of the coalition. This shows her foresight, because that is what it may well need, if you lot want to be elected.

  18. Ian I quite agree with you. However the cynic within me still has an election night hangover and can’t take anymore daily polls.
    With regards to Labour, I think they are putting on a brave face after their defeat. However, underneath the surface, there is dispair. However if you can’t laugh at yourself, you really are in trouble. However, it would take more than good spirits to win back a country after 13 years in power. Remember the Tories in 1964. I would say that it was one of their best defeats in history. (Over 300 seats for an Opposition) Two years later, they suffered a near Landslidial defeat. But yes. The Whigs are the ones to watch. (Especialy Vince Cable doing the Cha Cha Cha on Strictly Come Dancing)

  19. Kyle – I dont know what planet you’re on if you think Labour should be 15 points in the lead!

    The media is still unshakably pro-Tory, anti-Labour, we’re still in the government’s honeymoon period and some of what the Tories have done thus far has been welcomed by non-Tories.

    I am surprised that Labour are showing a slight lead in most polls now, and I’m bemused by the right wing media trying to launch a whispering campaign against Ed Milliband.. things could not be going better for him at the moment.

    And I say that as someone who has pretty much equal contempt for both main parties.

  20. Colin
    I was just going by the anti cuts mantra that is stirring up around the media and the early Thatcher years. I know, it is entirely unrealistic. I am no expert when it comes to the predictions of opinion polls.
    I was however, expecting a slight Labour lead. I beleive it to be the protests of Public Sector Workers being hit by the cuts.
    But I am afraid that Camerons Honeymoon period is over. It was over when the Confrence season started.

  21. @Neil A – Rachel Reeves was my pick for Rob Sheffeild’s 2015 cabinet. ;) (Though I think he sees it being in place by 2014 or before.)

  22. The Tories recently got 1.2% at a local council by-election in Liverpool which has to be the lowest ever. Did Cameron once say he was going to make a special effort in Northern cities?

  23. I’m surprised that some people think Polls don’t matter in between elections. 20 years ago today Tory MPs brought down the Prime Minister due to low scores in the Polls (amongst other things of course). Polls matter more than politicians admit.

  24. Ian C,

    It just might happen that the AV referendum is won and that the economy improves over the next 4 years. If the economy picks up and tax revenues rise, it will become possible to reverse some of the recent tax rises or spending cuts and still keep the budget in balance. This improved economic situation will give the tories a rise in poll ratings and may do the same to the Lib Dems. If a week is a long time in politics then 4 years is a life time. Don’t write the Libdems off just yet.

  25. Wolf,

    The 1.2% was after a big effort…..it would have 0.6% without

    ;-)

  26. Garry K and Wolf

    Illustrates the lunacy of FPTP.

    What must go through the minds of Conservative supporters who are condemned never to be represented by a person of their choice. I looked at Liverpool recently and IIRC there is not one Con councillor. It means none of the Conservatives in Liverpool have a representative on the Council.

    Could DC yet come out for reform?

  27. Opinion polls leave me confused. Since May in actual elections in local government the Lib Dems have GAINED 4 seats overall and have an average poll score of 25 per cent. They have only lost TWO seats to Labour, not the flood the polls would suggest. Do people do differently when asked a question to what they actually do in real life, are the polls wrong or is there another explanation?

  28. @ Howard

    “Could DC yet come out for reform?”

    Like p*** he will.

    Though maybe he could re-jig the boundaries so Liverpool is part of Kent ;)

  29. Traditionally the Tories fight more “no hoper” seats than Labour does. It’s part of the “One Nation” thing.

  30. As a Lib Dem I am quite pleased with 14% actually. Given the massive pounding being taken by us in the media and the level of scare stories along the lines of “council tenants MAY be forced to eat own children to survive”, and also considering we always slump after an election, it is not bad.
    Remember that strangely some of that vote 3-4% has gone not to Labour but to the Tories and if the Tory right wing was looking like having a sniff of power in a second general election, these electors would probably run a mile.
    Given that public spending will only be going down to around 40% of GDP i.e. higher than it was under Blair’s first term, the reality of cuts will in MOST cases not be that bad. I say in MOST cases, because there are groups like the students who have been royally shafted by massive budget cuts and have a right to be angry. But as long as the economy carries on as it is at the moment i.e. respectable recovery from recession, then cross fingers, things will recover.
    Don’t overestimate Labour, either. They are having a massive honeymoon at the moment, riding protest votes and with a brand new leader. Miliband, from what I have read in interviews, is seriously flakey and wet behind the ears when it comes to workable, concrete policy ideas. Moving away from New Labour means moving away from the middle ground that made them highly electable. Whether Labour can put together anything remotely coherent in the next year is very doubtful.

  31. ROI government approval at -74 (11% satisfied, 85% not).

    Still a long way to go for the Tories, but there must have been a slight frisson to see Irish Greens pull the plug on their coalition.

  32. Martin,

    The Lib Dems usually do better locally than nationally don’t they?

    In terms of vote share, they losing heavily across the country, Labour are generally gaining share, and the Conservatives are sort of levelling. The LDs are doing very badly in the North and other Labour Heartlands. Last Thursday they came behind the National Front in Sandwell.

    Some seats have changed hands, but many are not fully contested seat with all parties doing their best, and many not even having a full set of candidates, so many LA results don’t really tell us much that we can relate to the bigger picture. In addition, LA seats often have odd local factors too.

  33. RobertC
    Whether Labour can put together anything remotely coherent in the next year is very doubtful.

    If you look back on here Robert, there is strong opinion that it does not need to.

  34. @ ROLAND
    “I cannot argue with any of that Ian, for a change. Probably the most intelligent Labour supporter on this blog is Amber Star. She looks forward to Labour overtaking the JOINT score of the coalition. This shows her foresight, because that is what it may well need, if you lot want to be elected.”

    Roland, I expected better from you, it is all about seats, not ATTAD, unless you know of some dastardly coallition plot to gerry the next election.

  35. ‘HOWARD
    RobertC
    Whether Labour can put together anything remotely coherent in the next year is very doubtful.
    If you look back on here Robert, there is strong opinion that it does not need to.’

    Agreed; without any policy they are now leading in the polls.

  36. ZEPH
    As I keep trying to explain, this is a moving feast. It is unlikely the Liberals will be at this low level for the next 4 and a half years. In any event, 38% against 52% is not going to put Labour ahead on seats.

  37. YouGov out – 41/38/11

    Looks like a shift back towards the Tories…

  38. Roland,

    ZEPH
    As I keep trying to explain, this is a moving feast. It is unlikely the Liberals will be at this low level for the next 4 and a half years. In any event, 38% against 52% is not going to put Labour ahead on seats.

    That, my friend, depends on the voting system in place and the balance of the 52%. For example, Lab 38%, Con 32% LD 30% would give Lab a 40 seat Majority on a UNS under fptp. Of course it would not be 38 vs 52, as others would reduce the seats of LD + Con.

  39. In the local elections next year, Labour are bound to do well as they did so badly in the last two local elections. The party in opposition always does well in the locals, mid term, so it will be all factored in.
    However, Labour will crow & the Tories will says it is not as bad as they expected. I guess they will just exchange scripts from last time, when it was the other way round.