Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for Reuters has been published. This is the first November poll from a company other than YouGov – all the regular polls seem to be coming in the second half of the month these days.

Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 36%(-3), LAB 39%(+3), LDEM 14%(nc), echoing the shift towards Labour that we’ve seen in YouGov’s polls this week. Populus, Angus Reid and ComRes all showed Labour leads towards the end of last month anyway, so we are currently in a position where every regular polling company except ICM is showing Labour ahead (and I’d expect ICM to follow suit once their regular poll for the Guardian arrives next week).

One particularly interesting question in MORI’s poll was how concerned people were about particularly areas being affected by cuts. I’m not always a big fan of questions that ask about whether people are concerned about stuff – it’s easy to say you are, and there’s a social desirability bias towards saying you do at least care a bit about old people’s services being closed, but nevertheless, the constrast between issues is meaningful. Looking at those people who say they are very concerned about issues, 46% said they were very concerned about local services like libraries and social care, 44% said they were very concerned about policing, 44% about tuition fees, 42% about the armed services, 38% about public sector job cuts. Lowest were benefit cuts (27%) and 21% changes to social housing.

This is mostly in line with other polling we’ve seen that has shown the cuts to welfare benefits meeting with approval, and cuts to defence and tuition fees being opposed. The top one, cuts to local services, we haven’t really seen polling on simply because it is local – you don’t see national polls about a library in this town or an old people’s home in that town closing, but if they are blamed on the government rather than local councils then can still end up having an impact.


59 Responses to “Ipsos MORI – 36/39/14”

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  1. @ Julian Gilbert

    Thank you – I knew that Howard, Alec et al were making far too much fuss about all the ‘y’s …

    presumably you can also pronounce those much more difficult words too!

    :)

  2. Is it just me, or is the forum peculiarly witty this evening?

    On the substance of the IPSOS MORI poll, it was interesting to see people defending their local libraries. I’ ve heard on the grapevine from a very reliable anonymous source, that the government plan to turn public libraries into charitable trusts run by volunteers, and that this is likely to happen in the very near future. That would be an outrage (IMHO of course).

    38 41 11

  3. @RAF
    I used to work in a library during the 80s when local authorities were facing cuts due to the poll tax.
    Councils saw them as a soft touch, but whenever a closure was flagged, it always provoked a lot of protests which surprised everyone.
    People like their libraries, especially older people.
    Maybe the coalition are going for a double whammy. They’ve stirred up the youngsters against them with tuition fees and now they’re going for the pensioners too?

  4. Julian, one of my daughters who has a postgraduate diploma in library and informatiion science,so I am aware how pay for qualified librarians is very poor in public libraries particularly as it is, and now they expect people to run them for free!

    How does this government expect people to live? More job cuts, more unemployed… More divisions, oh dear, oh dear.

  5. Libraries?

    My Partner and I both work a couple of shifts in our Uni archive [a library of sorts, since it is in the McClay Library]. I cannot confess to it being nearly as useful to the wider public, since it mostly has old manuscripts. In our area we have lost 10 libraries in the last year. Rahter sad really, since it was a great place for single mums or single dads to take their children on a saturday morning or mid term break :( I would say it is a reasonably vital local sercie. I am sad to see them go.

  6. Sorry, RAF, I see it was you that mass the post re libraries.
    Very concerning, professional, qualified staff to be sacked and replaced by volunteers. IMO thus is no way to treat people and no way to run a quality information service in the 21C.

    It will be a very sad day if what you say is true. As it is many librarians are so lowly paid, paying off their student fees is a long long way off.
    I think this issue will lead to a further erosion of support for the coalition.
    IMO, of course.

  7. John Murphy
    I think people are primarily emotional and the reason that tuition fees are the hottest topic is the idea of Lib Dem betrayal of their fundamental stance. I think that if tuition fees had been an argument between Labour and Conservative it would have been one of a series of arguments but the Lib Dems made such a song and danceeveryone, but everyone turns on them

  8. Irony?
    Plesed to note Scots were least displeased by this. Interested it has grabbed the heaslines. Theere was another instance on a plane to Stornoway where the temperary Sherrif, Raj Jandoo made similar comments apparrently to his lighter, perhaps under the influence of alcohol… The funniest part was that a very young Constable had to phone the police staion to say he had just arrested the visiting judge. Well perhaps you had to be there

  9. PS
    Sorry wrong thread!

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