Following two YouGov polls in a row showing a two point Labour lead, today’s voting intention figures are CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. A five point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since the general election (and the largest Labour lead since the election-that-never-was).

This is also the lowest Conservative share of the vote since the election. Of course, the low Tory share and the size of the Labour lead may just be a blip, but the wider picture is that the underlying position now looks like a small Labour lead.


256 Responses to “YouGov shows a five point Labour lead”

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  1. Eoin

    I went back to your Q to me last night and I agree with you that having a 10 point lead can evaporate in no time if one’s policy proposal to electors is as vacuous as that which almost lost DC the GE.

    Indeed the one that came out so late (the BS) was awful to behold (literally) in that appalling campaign launch.

    So if your point is that Labour must come forward with something to chew on well before 2015, I am sure you are correct. However, I think 2012 would be quite soon enough. Perhaps drip drip as you point out Labour did in the 90s?

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  2. Alec,

    Just to put your mind at rest.

    ‘Black Friday’ is what US call the Discount sale retailers have for Thanksgiving weekend (last w/e of November).

    For internet retailers this starts a bit earlier due to fulfilment times/site traffic volumes. Hence Monday before.

    You probably knew that anyway but just in case :-)

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  3. Howard,

    Yes excellent point. Drip…. drip….. drip…….

    At the minute 7 months in, we have nothing!

    I compared reds ’97 manifesto with blue ’10. The former is a truly magnificent document. Many of the ideas in it where John Smith’s Kinnocks… it was an ideology built up over a decade…

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  4. Eoin
    “Blue will never agree to social housing, a NCS [National Care Service], a mortgae interest rate cap… 1 year maternity pay…”

    Interestingly, the social security legislation already provdes for one year of statutory maternity pay. ! This was put in place by Lab but not implemented.

    All these things you suggest should be rolled out over a period in the run up to the next GE, IMO.

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  5. @eoin – I think you and the rest of them here aren’t actually too far apart. I think everyone agrees that an opposition needs a set of principles (voter recognition image?) but that the detailed policy pronouncements come much further down the line.

    In terms of whether they are planning yet, I think it is hard to tell. In a sense though I think we need to be a little gentler on parties in Labour’s position. Being in government is literally exhausting – the kind of physical and mental exhaustion that takes months to overcome. I saw it in the Tories post 97 and it takes time to recover and start thinking again.

    One huge plus for Labour, that I think some Blues here greatly underestimate, is that Labour have largely held together. Sure, there are policy disagreements – there have to be, but Labour overall is pretty solid and disciplined – compare to the internecine warfare in Tory ranks that continued years after their defeat.

    Labour’s danger will be if they assume they’ve got another five years to sort themselves out and don’t start any meaningful planning until 2012 or so. A coalition with a majority of 70 is far less stable than a single party government with a much smaller majority – whatever anyone says. While I’m not predicting this will happen, I have said before that if there is a collapse of the coalition it will be rapid and largely unexpected. Labour should be ready for a GE much earlier than 2015.

    For example, the toppling of Clegg as Lib Dem leader in the next 12 months is by no means fanciful. What price a 5 year coalition in those circumstances?

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  6. @Alec ‘One huge plus for Labour, that I think some Blues here greatly underestimate, is that Labour have largely held together. Sure, there are policy disagreements – there have to be, but Labour overall is pretty solid and disciplined – compare to the internecine warfare in Tory ranks that continued years after their defeat’.

    You really must have written that tongue in cheek, or have you forgotten the intercenine warfare between the Blair & Brown camps post 1997?

    Are they united now? I really don’t know-probably too early to tell but Ed Balls certainly looks like he lost a £ & found a shilling. (That shows my age!)

    I agree Labour don’t need to set out detailed policies just yet but the public does need to know who they are now. Are they still New Labour or have they retreated back to left wing socialism? As a blue I hope the latter, then at least there is some choice. Remember, the Unions will want their pound of flesh eventually.
    After 1997 the Tories didn’t understand why they had lost & they fought the next 2 elections as they fought the 1997 one. They didn’t realise that the goalposts had been moved by Blair. It took a strategic thinker like Cameron to come along and spend 5 long years re-inventing the party. Ok so he didn’t win outright but he climbed one hell of a hill.
    @Eoin I love your posts, clearly you are rouge but your posts are always so balanced and well thought through with very little hint of partisanship. I find it hard not to agree with your analysis of the GO scenario and for that reason I hope you are right that blues get another 5 years.

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