Following two YouGov polls in a row showing a two point Labour lead, today’s voting intention figures are CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%. A five point Labour lead is the largest any pollster has shown since the general election (and the largest Labour lead since the election-that-never-was).

This is also the lowest Conservative share of the vote since the election. Of course, the low Tory share and the size of the Labour lead may just be a blip, but the wider picture is that the underlying position now looks like a small Labour lead.


256 Responses to “YouGov shows a five point Labour lead”

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  1. I thought my 3 pointer was ambitious, this is astonishing.

  2. First post!

  3. And on the front page, for those who doubted its existance (you know who you are!), the Labour background on the latest projection.

  4. Wow! That’s quite a move. I don’t think there’s any question now that Labour have pulled in front.

  5. …except for PamF’s post (curses… :-( )

  6. The UNS on here has gone red….first time since when?

  7. MArtyn :-p

  8. Seems Labour is at last eating into the Tory vote, could this be due to the news about reduction in the number of police or Cameron’s photographer and stylist being put onto the civil service payroll? Maybe a combination of both? But the lead does seem to be growing, this could be movement of LibDems who initially moved over to the Tories and who are now moving over to Labour.

  9. Labour have clearly gained a couple of points at least in the last week. Why? I can’t work out anything in the last week that was anything better than neutral for them, certainly not 2 or 3 point gain better. Have the Tories made a huge gaffe, not that I’ve noticed?

  10. Well i am no good at smileys

  11. Too good to be true – let’s not get excited. The economic damage that will arise from the cuts have yet to really hurt – and you never know Osborne may yet pull it off

  12. Red Rag – First time since ever. Last time a projecton would have shown a Labour majority would have been about Sept/Oct 2007 when the site looked like this – http://web.archive.org/web/20070927015830/ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php – and didn’t have a projection on the front page.

  13. Those were the days…

  14. fwiw a post to you Martyn on previous thread.

  15. Quincel – I don’t think it happens generally with one thing. There has been a constant drip drip of negativity for the coalition and no matter how hard their friends in the papers try it is getting through to the public.

    The problem for the coalition is the fact that the cuts have yet to really bite and they are already starting to lose percentages.

  16. Come on Anthony, fess up, you were frantically redesigning the Lab background up into the wee hours….

    Amber, isn’t it pretty?

  17. Cheers Anthony.

  18. Libs sticking on 10′ wonder how increases to others are splitting?

  19. @ Anthony

    And on the front page, for those who doubted its existance (you know who you are!), the Labour background on the latest projection.
    ———————————————————-
    I didn’t doubt its existence – but I did a print screen & saved it on a power point, just in case it’s here today & gone tomorrow. 8-)

  20. Though a Labour supporter, I reckon it’s an outliner – but nonetheless Labour are now clearly ahead (at least until the next major news story).

    I did have my doubts about Ed Miliband’s ability to perform, but his first few PMQ performances have by and large laid those to rest: it does not seem to me that he has been seen to have any major weakness that is likely to significantly damage Labour’s poll rating.

    Let’s hope the poll lead builds up into double digits by May – so we can start rebuilding our party’s local government base!

  21. There should be a warning with that last post Mr Wells:

    ‘If you are Gordon Brown, do NOT click here’

  22. @ Sue

    It is beautiful, I am all :-)

  23. Red Rag:

    But it is still very fast, at least a couple of points in this week alone. I’d expect a point a week at most for a general shift with no specific events. At this rate Labour will be 15 up by Christmas! It may just be luck or sampling, but otherwise it is too fast for general shift.

  24. I had predicted 39/42/10 so missed the Tories by quite a bit. We must remember that there was not a great enthusiasm for the Tories or the LibDems and rather a rejection of Gordon Brown, the sudden change may be a very early tipping point or maybe an outlier? Tomorrow should give us a clue.

  25. Took some time but it eventually happened. Just like in 51 and 79.

  26. I’ve had a couple of discussions here about how unlikely it is IMO there will be a hung parliament at the next election.
    Here we have it. Just a few percentage points and we have an overall majority.
    The FPTP system is designed to produce OMs. The idea we are in a new era of coalition governments doesn’t hold up.
    Unless the AV referendum is won.
    Which it won’t be IMO.

  27. ICM stands alone showing a blue lead. Hmmm…. I wonder!
    __________________________________________

    Regarding tonight’s YG; I would not touch it with a barge pole.

  28. Was DC’s announcement today that he is tranferring the two vanity photographers from government, back to the tory payroll, enough to dig him out of this hole?

  29. A great poll for Labour, and it’s now also clear the Lib vote is borderline single figures.

  30. Outlier – miles away from my 38 42 11. :-)

    Seriously, this must be a message to EM and Eoin. EM that’s the way to do it (nothing), Eoin, reflect on your early policy announcements recommendation to EM.

  31. “Here we have it. Just a few percentage points and we have an overall majority.”

    Erm….

    thats a universal swing calculation and also calculated under the 650 seat parliament pre boundary changes that are predicted to give 20-30 seats to the Tories in one foul, er, fell swoop.

    m.o.e included means we are still bang on course for a hung parliament.

  32. Exact reversal of the numbers which gave th Tories a 5 + readjust the other day!! It cow
    D soon jump back.

    But hey I’ll take it for now.
    :-)

  33. I bribed an angry student genius to hack into YG’s computer.

    Tomorrow it will be Labour 10 points ahead… & Nick H will have to eat his shorts. ;-)

  34. OK- in that case.

    Where are @Roland, @colin and @Ken when the news is so interesting?

    8-)

  35. Going to have to ditch spell checker methinks!!

  36. @Quincel

    Labour have clearly gained a couple of points at least in the last week. Why? I can’t work out anything in the last week that was anything better than neutral for them, certainly not 2 or 3 point gain better. Have the Tories made a huge gaffe, not that I’ve noticed?
    ______________________________________
    I consider that tuition fees was better than neutral for Labour.

    But nonetheless you have a point. To answer your question, I think the answer might be that the Tories ran a very skilful defence of their position for most of the last month, enticing Labour into some gaffes or tactical misjudgements. IMO this has obscured the trend of the public gradually becoming more concerned as the detail of the cuts is revealed. And then Woolas came to their rescue last week, before fading this. So its not a Tory gaffe, its just that during the last few days they’ve run out of ammunition to obscure the trend .

  37. It was Harriet’s demolition job on Wednesday wot did it !

  38. Do you know Rob, I was just thinking the very same. Fuuny that, best news for silencing trolls.

  39. Those saying this would give Labour a majority are wrong.

    You’re still using the old election calculator that hasn’t been updated since the last election therefore it shows how the last election would have looked with these figures not the next election.

    In reality Labour need around a 7 point lead to get a majority.

  40. A while ago, just after the CSR, there was such doom and gloom! I couldn’t believe some were actually predicting that the Tories would increase their lead!! I have to tease Eoin a little here and re-print this particular prediction:

    “I think we are looking at a 43/35/14 for december”

    Maybe we are, but it looks as though you had the parties the wrong way round :) :) :)

  41. @ Rob Sheffield

    m.o.e included means we are still bang on course for a hung parliament.
    ———————————————-
    Are you warming to my 10 point lead theory? ;-)

  42. “Regarding tonight’s YG; I would not touch it with a barge pole.”

    Remember to turn the light out when you leave the building

    8-)

    ******

    @Howard

    Spot on- EdM should not touch with a barge pole anyone pontificating to him about a rush-to-produce-policy-as-quickly-as-possible.

    6-12 months of “deep dive think” as the management consultants say is required whilst we let the coaliiton policy agenda sink into the voter psyche

    8-)

  43. It doesn’t take much to get the reds excited does it? What was the lead in the early 80’s…..before Mrs T’s landslide in 1983?
    Mid term polls are pretty meaningless in my view as the public give opinions to pollsters, like LD’s sign pledges. I.e. Without thinking about the consequences properly, as at the time it doesn’t matter.

  44. It’s only 6 days since YG showed a 5% Tory lead, and although that was obviously something of an outlier, I would be as sceptical of this poll as I was with that one.

    Labour appear to have moved ahead – but without any confirmation from non YG polls. The last polling we had from some of them (certainly a bit out of date) showed them slipping back.

    There has been some movement, but we just need to wait and see if there has been a genuine slip from 40% by the Tories – my best guess is probably not, although it has started.

  45. “I have to tease Eoin a little here and re-print this particular prediction:“I think we are looking at a 43/35/14 for december”

    In the words of Sir Dick

    ooh sue you are awful: but I like you

    8-)

  46. @ Sue

    We are indulging in a gloatathon.

    :-) 8-)

  47. sue

    sometimes i not convinced that eoin is a red, he tends to be more optimistic regarding the blue side than even the blues

  48. That’s quite something, especially given cuts are yet to bite and there is little in the way of policy detail in the media at the moment.

  49. howard,
    Ed Milliband has not even begun yet, just wait.In my
    opinion the reason for the movement in the polls is that
    there is just too much from the goverment too soon and
    without enough of a mandate.Every day seems to bring
    yet another reform of one kind or another or yet another
    pronouncement from Cameron.People have reached
    saturation point.

  50. @Amber Star – “I bribed an angry student genius to hack into YG’s computer.”

    Well she’s obviously not one of ours then. [Cue smiley thing]

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