My work here is done…
I used to occassionally link to awful newspaper reports of polling and give out the coverted UKPR prize for atrocious newspaper reporting of polls. I’m happy to report today that I can link to a journalist dealing properly with polling evidence, and actually going back to the archives and seeing what the polls did show. Hats off to Peter Hoskin at the Spectator for answering the question of whether Charles and Diana’ wedding in 1981 actually gave the government a boost in the polls by digging out the MORI voting intention polls at the time and seeing what actually happened. The answer is, incidentally, that no, the royal wedding had no obvious impact on voting intentions at all.
For the record, the Gallup polls from 1981 show the same absence of any royal wedding boost.
Thanks Eoin.
Colin
Salmond/Goodwin, Salmond/Trump LOL (I have never done that before!) Alf Young is writing a history of the credit cruch and it will be hard on AS. Of course no one is innocent. I heard Goodwin speak at a Scottish Enterprise event and thought his harsh realism (about Glasgow/Edinburgh) well thought out at the time
@julian
yes i noticed the photographer had been laid off today,
a great day to bury bad news
Martyn
I think R Haines would prefer Harry the Ninth. Jasper Ridley dscribed one of Henry VIII’s actions as “like much else he did, it was nasty, surprising and popular” Pretty good eh?
@ Barney
Tomorrow the ScotlandVotes web-site will have up constituency profiles etc with a calculator for the new seats
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Super, thanks for that info.
BTW, canvassing has begun in Edinburgh already. The team are enjoying it so far because it is all good -but there’s to be no complacency. 8-)
amber
Yes There is a spring in the step. We have started here too. I think we have learned to take nothing for granted. We had a breakfast event with Alastair Campbell who was up for an oil do. With a couple of day’s notice we had 60 folk paying a tenner…If they will do that in Aberdeen on a freezing morning at 8? My daughter is working hard at university in Edinburgh but tells me she is getting two e-mails a day from Labour students there.
This has got to be worth a new thread.
YouGov; CON 37%, LAB 42%, LDEM 10%
Gov’ approval minus 10
and
ATTAD = +5 ;)
@Martyn – “Charles when he becomes King… would reign as King George VII”
This was announced by St James’s Palace, I forget the exact date, but it was at a time when there were murmurings in the press about “skipping a generation”.
“Prince Albert”
It was Victoria’s express wish that every future King be named Albert, as in Albert Edward, Albert George etc.
@ Julian
Holey, moley – see you on the new thread. 8-)
Julian,
Thanks.
For nothing.
:-(
I wonder if he took this from me – he does link to the PoliticsHome article which is where I’d commented (under name SJ), and where I’d linked to the MORI historic voting intentions, and where I’d pointed out defending an overseas colony might benefit Cameron more. Plus his post was at 12 minutes after mine. Of course, all of the above is relatively obvious for anyone who was curious, and 12 minutes would be a short amount of time to knock up his cute graph…
Exact reversal of the numbers which gave th Tories a 5 + readjust the other day!!