YouGov’s weekly poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%. It’s the first time YouGov have shown Labour ahead since the conference season.

The normal caveats apply – it is just one poll, and it could be just as much of a blip as the 5 point Conservative lead we had earlier in the week – but it does come after a week when the coalition’s unpopular policy on tuition fees has been very much in the forefront of the news.


340 Responses to “YouGov/Sunday Times – 39/41/10”

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  1. An examniation of the 1971 census reveals that of 34,000 residents in the Falls ward of belfast, 231 women were employed above the position of clerical staff.

    I know of a greater number of women who organsied and ran chairites.. ran the accounts, managed their strucutres growth and forward planning. Leadership within the community is everything. A generation of women leaders were advanced within the chairty secotr than could only have dreamed on linen and textile work otherwise.

    It is quite the luxury of any state who can say no to all these opportunities for these women to advance themselves… remember that was just one ward…. multiply that over and over again.

  2. Ken

    If Lossiemouth goes, then a significant part of the Mountain Rescue facility in the Cairngorms goes with it. Just how many mountains are their near to RAF Marham?

  3. @ Ken

    Here’s a little snippet from the British Redcross:

    About HR and your workforce
    How many paid employees do you have?
    101+ full time; 101+ part time
    How many trustees sit on your board?
    11+
    How many volunteers do you have (non-paid staff, excluding trustees)?
    101+ full time; 101+ part time

    So, a one-to-one ratio between paid staff & volunteers in one of the largest, longest running & high profile international not-for profit organisations.

    They British Redcross also make this comment about themselves:
    “It [the Red Cross] is a large & complex organisation.”
    8-)

  4. Ken

    “Next time your kids go climbing in the Cairngorms, just hope that the Mountain Rescue volunteers haven’t nicked all the money and done a runner….!”

    Being good Scottish socialists-they wouldn’t dream of calling on a mere charity to dispense it’s patronising assistance.

    They would call up the State Helicopter.

    ……..or they wouldn’t be seen on the hills with all those middle class walking types ;-)

  5. Eoin, I would have supported the women you mention achieve in paid, caring careers, and to advance their lot. Rthere than use their labour for free……
    Pam

  6. Eoin

    I understand where you’re coming from BUT (you knew that was coming) you’re extrapolating from a community that is/was largely alienated from the state. I’m not sure how well you can extend that idea to other communities – especially urban areas on the mainland.

    Community working achieves quite a lot within small communities with a genuine common identity. Again that often doesn’t translate well to urban communities.

  7. Colin
    I have never been sentenced to the naughty step here and I spray my heartfelt disappropriation in many directions. I have total contempt for politicians, (including myself), unmitigated by any supposed benefit they may have brought to society. As soon as a man is knocked down, he incurs my acquired admiration, such as Ted the Grocer, GB and the others similar; John Prescott is right up there with my fallen heroes.

    Mr Laws knocked himself down, and as Amber pointed out, seems to be actually earning from it all again. If he announces that his fees have gone to charity, up he goes a bit but not fully.

  8. Before long charity will be providing soup kitchens….

  9. richard in norway

    i hear on the radio that alan johnson has suggested that labour might scrap the 50% tax band

    what!

    where is red ed

    This is a link to the story

    ht tp://www.politicshome.com/uk/story/11244/

    It is concerning to me. This week the feeling that Ed isn’t up to it is growing on me. I know it’s early, but Ed really needs to pull his finger out. He needs to really outline the clear principles that Labour will build policy on over the next few years.

    In addition, where is the rest of the Shadow Cabinet? Has Yvette been seen recently?

    The polling is looking okay for the reds at the moment, but unless they find another gear and present alternatives rather that keeping quiet and sniping occasionally, it will be a long four and half years, followed by longer five on top of that.

    I sense Ed Ball’s star rising…

  10. @Colin….Glad you got that before it was snipped. :-)

  11. @ Colin, Ken

    I come here most days just to remind myself why I am so glad they are no longer running the country
    ——————————————————
    And I come here to remind myself that we soon will be again (39-41-10). ;-)

    Irrestible – even if I end by eating humble pie tonight.
    8-)

  12. OldN,

    Are you alienated from the state? ;)

  13. Amber,

    Where did you get your stats on Red Cross from?

    101+ could be thousands and does not mean one-to-one ratio of paid to volunteers? Wiki (I know!) says there are 30,000 volunteers to 2,600 staff. Surprised if that is not reasonably accurate?

  14. @ Gary K

    – In chess they say: “See the whole board.”

    Mr Johnson, who backed Ed’s brother David for party leader, is against a graduate tax and does not think the 50p top rate should be permanent.

    He told BBC One’s Politics Show Labour had yet to come up with a “considered policy” in these areas.

    But he said both he and Mr Miliband were “determined” to sort out their policy differences.
    8-)

  15. @Amber…..I wouldn’t mind if it was only you running the place, it’s the strange bunch you support that worries me. :-)

  16. @ Hooded Man

    I am quoting from the British Red Cross HR dept stats.

    The level of volunteers is not world-wide.

    Also, the volunteers quoted by Wiki are ‘registered’ volunteers – not necessarily active.

    Furthermore, large numbers of Red Cross ‘volunteers’ are paid by their state; they are on secondment from e.g. NHS etc.

    I think the Red Cross is great, BTW. But it the exception, not the rule. 8-)

  17. Amber, Ken is clearly smarting because his Blue team were beaten by Reds from the North East….

  18. @ Amber Star

    I too have been doing a lot of analysis on effects of reduce/equalise, although I have not attempted to build a model to predict future results. My interest is what the changes would have done to this year’s result. Would you care to share what you believe the notionals will be if the plan goes through?
    I say if because I am of the view that the new boundaries when published will not get the backing of the HOC

  19. OldNat,

    Google map the Falls Road. They let you do a street view of it. Start in Beechmount. Look left, look right. The majority of buildings are charity premises.

    I will check on the Shankhill a little later to see if it is the same and get back to you :)

  20. @ Ken

    I wouldn’t mind if it was only you running the place
    ————————-
    Thank you, that’s adorable. :-)

  21. @ Ray from the North

    My model’s stage1 calculation gave the following outcome:
    Con -11, Lab -29, Dem -4, Nats -6 based on 2010 GE

    But, when I mathematically cascaded the voters from the lost seats the outcome was:
    Con -15, Lab -20, Dem -9, Nats -6; again based on the 2010 GE & electorate.

    I hope this is useful to you. 8-)

  22. Eoin

    Alienated? Seems a fair description. :-)

    As to the distribution of charity shops – here it runs along with lack of commercial demand, and charities get cheap rents.

  23. Amber,

    I believe the numbers on Wiki are British only looking at the citations.
    It was just that you said 101+. I assumed it is one of those useless measures that they use for small medium and large companies, you know the type “Does your company employ 0-10 people, 10-100 or 101+”
    Even BP would simply be 101+….

  24. Pam F…..It’s Sunday, I’m meeting two Chinese gentlemen and their interpreters in the morning, the Blues get their worst defeat by a non top four side since 1995, and you say I’m smarting……….! :-)

  25. @ Hooded

    I’ll stress again, the Red Cross is an organisation that is, IMO, very much an exception to the norm. They are multi-national & have the support – & the scrutiny – of almost the entire world!

    They are a better thing than sliced bread, IMO!
    8-)

  26. Further point on British Red Cross, which I omitted to mention. A significant amount of the paid staff will be in their retail outlets. Probably not earning much, but if they want their stores to generate significant revenue it is better to run them with paid (experienced) retailers, supplemented by the volunteers.

  27. As Amber says, no party should be against the Big Society. I have spent half of my life in the small-scale voluntary sector but equally all parties have to take on a few home truths
    1. Most of the money comes from the state. Charitable giving is a very small factor
    2. The capital value of the voluntary and charitable sector is very small and minimal when housing associations are exempted.
    3. An overwhelming proportion of the organisations are very, very small and regulation cannot reach far.
    4. While the benefits of such organisations are great and have drawn much attention in policy terms, an unfortunate corollary is that such organisations thrive in dense-knit tribalised societies. It is paticularly difficult to foster such organisations in societies such as urban England.
    I realise that other people have made these points but wanted to lay them out
    BTW Colin’s contemptible comments about Scots are typically cheap. Perhaps he would wish to extend them from mountain rescue to our Scotish Lifeboats Society. I was headteacher at Longhope where, in the 60’s, one whole crew was lost and where brothers and sons stepped forward to replace them

  28. Sorry Amber, posts crossed. If you’re a big fan then we agree…

  29. @ Amber Star

    Thank you, very interesting. I get Con -13, Lab – 25, LD -8, Nats -4. There have been a few projections published now in the media (YouGov, Newsnight, Ron Johnston, ERS) they are all in the same ballpark, as are our machinations. Broadly, it will correct maybe up to a third of Labour’s over-performance; that accruing from differential turnout and voter distribution will remain. Given that, I’m surprised your model requires a 7% Labour lead for a majority, as we both think Con would have been just short on a 7% lead in May and the residual Lab over-performance is, say, 30+ seats. Or is it that you postulate a LD collapse that helps the Cons?

  30. john was saying earlier that there were no labour splits i think that might be tested to destuction if AJ gets his way, it seems like the opening shot in a war. i wonder if the blairites want to get the hostilites over and done with quickly. they must think that they will win

  31. RIN,

    The history of parties where Leader and Chancellor don’t agree and take it public isn’t good.

    Ed is getting put a difficult situation that will not be easy to escape from. It is an open challenge to his authority. I don’t think such things play well to the public, as he lay look fundamentally weak.

  32. @ Ray from the North

    My 7% includes my (probably somewhat less mathematically accurate) attempt & adding AV with Cons/ Dems broadly supporting each other to Labour’s disadvantage into the model.

    If [when?] then AV referendum fails, I will revise that 7% downward. I may also have over-estimated the “pile-up” effect on Labour’s increased support & therefore underestimated how many seats they would win at lower than +7%.

    I should mention, I erred on the side of caution to off-set my personal Labourite optimism.
    8-)

  33. @Colin….Glad you got that before it was snipped

    Just made it Ken !

  34. @Amber…..Labourite optimism…….oxmoron, surely ! :-)

  35. Amber,

    John curtice broadly agrees with you on this.

  36. @Amber……. Oxymoron, of course. :-)

  37. I confessed before to joining the Big Society. One of its flagship groups is StreetBank. I attach the link if anyone wishes to join it:

    h ttp://www.streetbank.com/

  38. @ Amber Star

    Thank you, I understand now. I didn’t read that last part of your original post properly! As I said I don’t think the new boundaries will go through, I agree with you that the AV referendum will fail and I just cannot see a ConDem pact next time either.

  39. Barney

    I believe in the third sector & social enterprises.

    I believe they do work which The State could not ever do.

    I volunteer every week.

    I know about RNIB.-I lived near Mousehole where the Penlee boat went down.

    It won’t be me who will be counting up the number of “unreliable” volunteers they depend upon, or finding some other reason to denigrate them.

  40. @ Colin,

    If you insist on wilfully mis-understanding the points I am making about charitable organisations so be it.

    They are admirable & well suited to certain situations whilst being wholly unsuitable in other circumstances.
    8-)

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