Two more new polls out tonight. ComRes have a telephone poll out for the Indy, their first phone poll since September. Topline figures with changes since September are CON 35%(-3), LAB 37%(+3), LDEM 16%(-2), actually very close to the Angus Reid poll earlier today and the first ComRes poll to put Labour ahead since the election-that-never-was.

Note that ComRes are now carrying out both online and telephone polls. Sampling and mode effects can make significant differences to poll results, so in drawing comparisons to previous polls I’ll be treating ComRes phone and online polls seperately (at least until we’ve six months or so to see if there’s a difference) – hence why the change figures I quote are different to those in the Indy.

Meanwhile, YouGov’s daily poll has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11% – suggesting the 5 point Tory lead in the Sunday Times poll wasn’t anything meaningful.


143 Responses to “New YouGov and ComRes polls”

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  1. @JAY BLANC
    You have told me before that there will be no Con/Lib
    pact on the ballot paper at the next GE. Therefore, I should not add the members of the current governing parties together. My question to you is, how the hell do you know what will be on the ballot papers at the next GE ?

  2. SocalLiberal

    “What I find entertaining is the blanket claims of Obama being a “socialist.” I always feel like asking “um, do you know what socialism actually is?”

    I understand-the term clearly has different meanings to you & to us.

    I’ll be honest & say for any self respecting left winger, Brazil is the country to follow -not USA-what a story.

    Under Lula-a Trades Union Activist, more than 20 million people were taken out of acute poverty , 15 million jobs were created,
    Stocks rose six-fold as the economy expanded at almost twice the pace of the previous eight years and inflation fell by a third from a peak of 17.2 percent.
    Brazil shot to 8th largest economy, and became the B in “BRIC”.
    After decades as the largest foreign debtor among emerging economies, Brazil became a net creditor for the first time in January 2008. Fitch ratings and S&P elevating Brazilian debt from speculative to investment grade.

    At the end of his terms of office, he hands over to an ex marxist urban guerilla, -a woman-who gets elected with 56% of the vote and says :-

    “We’ll care for our economy with complete responsibility,The Brazilian people don’t accept governments that spend at unsustainable levels”

    ….and that she will cut net public debt to about 30 percent of gross domestic product by 2014 from 41 percent.

    Astounding story if you believed as I did, that South American politicians were either mad Generals or idiots like Chavez..

    Watching the Chilean miners’s story , the picture of their President & his achievements shows what these countries are beginning to achieve under the new breed of market-orientated politicians ; albeit from the extreme left sometimes.

    Amazing.

    Sorry but it makes Obama seem pedestrian & uninteresting to me -& it just emphasises how the centre of gravity in the global economy-and the political clout which goes with it-is changing.

  3. I like this from Asia Times:-

    “Obama’s jaw must have dropped at the sight of the most popular political leader in the world (over 80% approval rate), outgoing Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whom he calls “the man”, not only winning two elections in a row (2002 and 2006) but managing to see the election of his chosen successor, a hardworking but relatively faceless bureaucrat who until recently no taxi driver could even name. Dream on, Barack. Well, not really, as the alarm in his iPhone rings and he awakes to face the full extension of the debacle awaiting the Democrats this Tuesday in the US.

    Was it a vision, or a waking dream? -It’s the economy, stupid. Obama could only dream of surfing the economic indicators of the Lula years; per capita income growing by 23% from 2002 to 2010; unemployment at a record low of 6.2%; the minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, growing by 65% – not to mention more than 20 million people lifted from poverty and becoming middle class (compare to 40 million Americans been plunged into the poverty line). As much as the American Dream is in Emergency Room, the Brazilian Dream feels like Camelot remixed as a telenovela (with a happy Hollywood ending). Who are these new South American dreamers who voted Dilma? Essentially the urban working class, the sub-proletariat of the poor northeast region, the new lower middle class and some substantial, progressive portions of the classic middle class.”

  4. Colin,

    I stayed up to watch the election that Obama won with my newborn daughter, to give my Wife an untroubled nights sleep. I remember saying to her that I was proud she was there when the USA voted for a Black Man as President.

    Quite frankly, he could have parted the Red Sea and eradicated poverty, and he would still have failed to meet the expectations that his supporters placed upon him. The situation that the US finds itself in economically would have been tough no matter who followed Dubya.

    I fear that it may well prove to be the case that the election in which America voted for a Black Man was also the most cursed and toughest he could have got.

    Right man, wrong time.

  5. Sorry to repeat myself, but could somebody clear this up for me please?

    YouGov refer on their own site to their daily poll as a tracker, which I have always understood to refer to a poll that repeatedly surveys the same sample, but I was also under the impression that they surveyed a random selection from they entire membership for each poll. Where am i getting myself mixed up?

    I’m quite prepared to say something mindlessly partizan if that’s what it takes to get anyone’s attention round here. ;)

  6. Rodney,

    I am sure one of ‘Wise’ will assist you very soon :-)

  7. Garry

    Thanks

    Personally , I tried to forget the colour of his skin.

    I think too much of the euphoria was based on it.

    And so might some of his perceived failures be-which would be unfortunate.

    By the time he gets the US economy motoring again , they may just find themselves even further behind the BRIC & other developing economies.

    DC & GO were absolutely right to focus our Foreign Office objectives on exporting opportunities from day 1.

    If we can’t compete, and grow our economy, we can forget all the fine social programmes. You need tax revenues to pay for them.

  8. Hooded,

    Thanks for that….. Blue 41/2 seems pretty solid then. The flux seems to be yellow/red.

    When yellow are 11% red tend to nudge towards c.40%
    When yellow are 13% red tend to reced back to c.38% Proof if needed that yellow gain hurts reds more (with YG of course).

  9. Roland Haines
    I also thought Barnaby summed up perfectly

    I also think the coalition will go to the end. I therefore give some significance to the debate in parliament last night on the boundaries for the next election. C Kennedey led an angry revolt centring on his own position. Tellingly he said “those in Lib Dem communities who had stood by the party through thick and thin would not understand.” It is obvious Clegg and Alexander want rid of CK and he is not going without a fight.

  10. R Huckle

    I have nothing against coalition governments, just this current one. However, if the LDs and the Cons agreed coaltion before a GE I would be ‘ok’ with a C/LD gov. Same applies to Lab and LD coalitions.

    I agree with your comments about what could happen to the LD party.

    It’s also interesting to see on the other thread that support for FPTP is now much greater than support for AV. There must be some LD MPs and LD supporters now thinking that NC and the LD negotiating tema shudl have demanded more before entering the coalition agreement. But perhaps there will be a miraculopus turnround in support for AV before May.

  11. Oh good grief,

    ‘tema’ should be team
    ‘shuld’ shood be should
    ‘miraculopus’ (sounds good) should be miraculous

  12. @ALEC
    Just seen your post about my comment that the Cons are winning the cuts debate.
    Waiting until the cuts take effect to get a poll boost does not mean that Labour will have won the debate>
    It will simply mean that reality will have taken its effect on the electorate.
    I have no doubt that Labour will pull ahead in the polls once reality bites. But the actual debate is taking place now. And Labour is losing it.
    Remember I’m not discussing here my opinion on the rights and wrongs of the cuts. I’m simply discussing the position of the parties according to the polls.
    Labour should be well ahead by now after the CSR.
    The fact they’re not is …….. interesting. ;)

  13. @BARNEY CROCKETT
    Did you notice I got my Barnabys and Barneys mixed up. An easy mistake based on name similarity and left wing view point , but also very good posts.

    One does not know exactly how much of a following Charlie has within the LDs. He had the ability to be most impressive at one time. What a shame he rather than the very unimpressive Simon Hughes took to the grog.

  14. @JULIAN GILBERT
    Once again Julian bravo. I totally agree with your post @12.33. Just as I complemented Barnaby Marder in an earlier post, I complement you now. Please do not feel like some kind of traitor because I agree with you, we are not discussing the rights and wrongs of policy here, just the way the wind is blowing. To pretend that everything is coming up roses just because it is your party of choice, does nobody any favours.

  15. @AW
    My post to Julian Gillbert is very complementary and there are no bad words, yet it is moderation?

  16. Julian,

    I agree that The Coalition is winning the debate over cuts at the moment, when the cuts are largely theoretical. I also think most people think they won’t affect themselves very much.

    As a Red I am not too disappointed at the current polling. Labour have said very little of substance as an alternative, and I still sense many people want to give the Coalition a chance first.

    For Labour to be neck and neck within MOE is very positive, as the effect of the cuts will hurt the coalition. They currently creating enough rope to hang themselves with. If the cuts really hurt, then Joe Public will be ready to listen to the alternatives. Swing voters can’t be rushed to this point I think.

    If the cuts don’t hurt much, the private sector creates all the jobs the coalition are hoping for, and in five years things are looking rosy, then Labour are stuffed.

  17. Julian,

    Whilst I broadly agree with you I think Alec has a point that last night’s polling seems to have thrown it up in the air again.

    AR/ComR/Populus are recording red leads. IF there is any truth in that motley crews findings, then red are getting something right. Since the last ComR had a 6% blue lead, perhaps that something is this HB debate.

    I don’t think so myself, I think it is more likely that you are correct. But the historian in me is compelled to point out that the evidence is now conflicting.

  18. Roland,

    An article for your interest:

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/

  19. @JULIAN GILBERT
    Once again Julian bravo. I totally agree with your post @12.33. Just as I complemented Barnaby Marder in an earlier post, I complement you now. Please do not feel like some kind of turncoat because I agree with you, we are not discussing the rights and wrongs of policy here, just the way the wind is blowing. To pretend that everything is coming up roses just because it is your party of choice, does nobody any favours.

  20. @GARRY K
    Winning the debate, rightly or wrongly doesn’t tend to be ultimately the defining factor in politics (unfortunately). Everyone remembers the put-down in the US vice-presidential debate by Democratic vice-presidential candidate Senator Lloyd Bentsen to Republican vice-presidential candidate Senator Dan Quayle. “Senator, you;re no Jack Kennedy.” He won the debate hands-down. What everyone forgets is that in the subsequent election Dukakis/Bentsen lost.
    So as a red I’m not necessarily disappointed too. But to continue with the footballing metaphor used earlier, it’s a bit like playing against an eight-man side and only getting a one-nil win.
    @Eoin
    I’m more inclined to assign the (very) slow Labour climb to realisation of the affects of the cuts rather than to the effectiveness of Labour’s arguments.
    There could be an argument (one I know you disagree with) that labour should just keep quiet and public opinion will eventually go their way anyway.
    Me? I think if Labour can’t decidedly score in front of such an open goal there’s something wrong.

  21. @ROLAND -“To pretend that everything is coming up roses just because it is your party of choice, does nobody any favours.”
    Agreed. Least of all your own party.

  22. Julian,

    Not one poster (of red persuasion) has raised the plight of the poor souls (long term unemployed) who are set to lose 10% of their HB. Instead reds defend those on £20k HB a year. A very sorry affair.

  23. @EOIN
    Yes interesting, very similar to the story in todays Telegraph. The trouble is there is so much history. Further, De Gaulle lingers in the French armed forces
    just as WLSC lingers in ours. I dare say Michael Collins does in the Irish defence force.
    Young leaders on the way up, may make a go of it, if it saves money and ramps up defence I am all for it.
    But its the doubts, the doubts that make me deaf .

  24. Eoin

    Do you include yourself as a ‘red poster’ or not?

    And if so have you posted on this particualr aspect? If not, why not?

  25. Mike,

    I harp on about it at length.. so yes I am one! :) Thank you for the correction.

  26. @julian gilbert

    “Labour should be well ahead by now after the CSR.
    The fact they’re not is …….. interesting.”

    Every poll going back several months (I’d also be interested to dig up some data from pre May GE) on the issue of ‘whether we need to reduce the deficit’ states quite clearly that there is a significant plurality for cutting the deficit amongst the electorate. That means a combination of spending cuts and tax increases.

    There is no debate- other than on the inaudible fringes- about whether we cut or not.

    The issue is how to cut/ what to cut/ over what time period and the balance of tax Vs spend. The ‘no cuts’ horse has long since vanished off up the road!

    On this I think Ed and Al could be a bit more explicit but they actually don’t need to be yet. Far from it: rising to the juvenile ‘what would YOU do’ growls of the mob from the right could actually push the reds into some hasty ill thought out mistaken pledges.

    Far better to work through a comprehensive programme over a 6 month period in time for the locals/ Welsh and Scottish *real* voting.

    NOTHING the reds say or do now on deficit reduction is going to make any difference in 2013-2015 when the next GE occurs. That will be about the pain of the cuts and whether you as a voter are sufficiently convinced it was necessary or that the Blue-yellow firm went too far- possibly just for the ideological hell of it.

    What IS interesting is the whole ‘Universality debate’. On that the reds have gone on the offensive….but the poll numbers are pretty much favouring a UK tea party position. Though- again- that is *pre* implementation.

    I am not surprised at all that Labour are not in the lead. If they don’t win next May by a decent margin….THEN I will be surprised.

  27. Roland,

    A European Defence Force by the back door. Just the sort of thing that gives the Neutralityists (and I suspect the UKIPPERS) the eebie jeebies. [I hope I am not being over sensitive witht hat word. The last time I used it I was castigated :( ] An unlikely alliance eh?

  28. [off the top of my head] December 2008 YG polled on cuts.

    a) 30% favoured tax rises, which of coruse are not a cut.
    b) 50% favoured cuts, which are what they say on the tin
    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
    March 2010 YG poll on cuts

    a) 22% favoured tax rises, which of course are not a cut.
    b) 56% favour cuts, which are what they say on the tin.

    Thus, by March 2010, GB’s signifcant inroads into pursuing the Keynsian line had been eroded to a mere 22%.

  29. @ROB SHEFFIELD
    ” Far from it: rising to the juvenile ‘what would YOU do’ growls of the mob from the right ”

    I don’t think the mob from the right matter Rob. Its the people that matter, they have seen the benefit of Labour economic management and have listened to the denial that any problem exists. They will decide when the time comes. In the light of the idiotic posh boy Osbourn, having stuck it to Labour several times recently, I don’t think you should be over confident

  30. Rob,

    I am supportive of your last post.

    I don’t think that the Ed should be too concerned if some of Labour’s arguments are not immediately popular. Laying down firm, simple principles is better than trying policy x, finding it isn’t popular, so then trying policy y.

    People voted in May for a party other than Labour to run the country. They should be given the chance to do so, and the Electorate will give them that. Labour should be a constructive opposition, not a reactive one.

    What Labour needs to do is stay true to some principles such as Universality, so that should the Coalition’s plan not work out or be unpopular (which may be the case) then they will see that Labour has a firm position that is different.

    If they can demonstrate a history of principled opposition that was not flip-flopping around focus group reaction, I think they are more likely to be taken seriously as an alternative Government.

  31. Eoin

    “A European Defence Force by the back door”

    Don’t think so Eoin.

    The Brussels Gang is not involved .

    This is a deal between two “sovereign nations” to quote DC.

    Sur there will be plenty of unease about “relying” on the French.

    But this looks much more like sharing logistics & support facilities than going to war together.

  32. Colin,

    Dear auld Nick’s words, shaped that notion. Of course, I hope you are correct. That’s why the Irish rejected lisbon in the first place.

    h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/

  33. @Hooded Man & Rob Sheffield – “Do you have a source for this? I have only seen CIPD estimates of 1.6m job losses…….”

    I’ll have to withdraw the 2.7m figure. When I checked the BBC web report on this at about 7am this morning it referred clearly to 2.7m total job losses. I’ve just checked it and it looks like the report has been substantially re written. Unless I completely misread something it looks like the BBC report was inaccurate. The actual figure is 1.6m.

    @Julian Gilbert – I appreciate your point re the ‘debate’. Having said that, much of the notion about blues winning the benefit debate seems to me to be based on the big lead in the weekend YouGov poll and articles like Rentoul’s in the Independent that loudly claimed Labour were on the wrong side of the issues.

    With that poll now appearing to be an outlier and Labour leading in several others, perhaps the judgement will be a little different.

  34. Eoin

    I hadn’t read it.

    Have been listening to various military talking heads.

    …and DC at the Press Conference , who actually said
    ” This is not a European Army”.

    I did look at Sarkozy when he said it…..perhaps just a twitch of the lips-but you couldn’t have called it a smile.

  35. Alec
    On the matter of CIPD predicted job losses

    The IoD has criticised the CIPDs prediction.

    Tghe latter has already issued a reply which amongst other things says:

    “Our labour market predictions are based on analysis of the experiences and detailed predictions of our 135,000 members, drawn in particular from our respected Labour Market Outlook quarterly survey, extensive analysis of published data, and a good measure of experience. The IoD appear to be relying instead on a hope that the past, when economic circumstances were very different, may repeat itself in the future.

    “…The IoD are entitled to disagree and correct to conclude that no-one knows for sure what the future holds….”

  36. A European defence force has been trialed in smallish bits over the years. Its a joke. This new concept whereby a force 6500 or thereabouts, made up of para’s and marines with special forces attached, is slightly different. If it were the same idea but our forces with US Rangers and Marines, I would feel a lot more comfortable. Before any liberals remind me that the French have a great fighting tradition, let me say it is their very different sense of military priorities that tends to compromise operations. Neither Sarko or Dave have ever picked up a rifle to my knowledge, so I hope they take a lot of advice.

  37. Roland,

    I am obliged to point out that the French could not fight there way out of a paper bag. Unless of course the ‘Wild Geese’ are helping them :)

  38. Alec

    “The actual figure is 1.6m.”

    “John Philpott, the CIPD’s chief economic adviser, said that the coalition government will need to stimulate private-sector job creation by an average of 320,000 each year by 2015-16 simply to keep unemployment stable at 2.5 million…….
    ……“The test of the coalition’s overall strategy for balancing the public finances and restoring sustainable economic growth will be how quickly and by how much job loss on this scale is offset by net new job creation in the private sector as a whole,” concluded Philpott. “The CIPD considers the private sector perfectly capable of adding more than 300,000 net new jobs per year by 2015-16 if the economy grows faster than 2.5 per cent per year on average. But given the headwinds facing both the global and UK economy this looks like a tall order, especially prior to 2013, and consequently unemployment is likely to rise throughout 2011 and much of 2012.”

    CIPD website

    With regard to those “headwinds” & that 2.5%,

    The Global Economy is currently growing at 4.5% pa., supported in large part by S.E.A./Pacific growth of 7%pa to 8% pa ; and Latin America of 4%pa to 5% pa.

    Our job is to plug into those high growth economies .

    DC knows this-he is off to China later in November.
    Obama is taking a huge delegation to India.this month.

  39. @Colin – agreed, but a whole load of issues are still swirling around that could make life very difficult. Today we have an oil price spike and Libya looking for $100 a barrel – last week we had evidence of UK companies making heavy purchases of commodity option amid fears of price rises and commodity shortages.

    If strong global growth inflation and weak pound interact to import inflation while we are reducing spending, we get an unpleasant counter to the cheap export potential. If interest rates rise to counter inflation, there is a risk to banks capitalisation.

    I’ve just seen an analysis today that calculates banks are currently £20b adrift of their capital requirement if they marked assets to market, but if interest rates had to rise to 3.5% (still historically very low) the impact of mortgage defaults and asset values could mean the undercapitalisations stretches to £180b and trigger another credit crunch.

    On top of that, Merril Lynch has begun advising clients not to buy UK bonds. Smart invetsors have picked up that the much hyped demand for UK gilts has actually had very little to do with the change in UK government but is merely a classic irrational market bubble based on not a great deal of logic.

    While a devastating collapse (again) is unlikely, the truth is 2.5% could well be very optimistic, espcially if rates have to rise and we begin to lose the weak pound as a sop to inflation.

  40. @ Garry K

    I agree with you in part and disagree with you in part.

    The expectations were so high that little he could have done could have satisfied those expectations. However, he is the right man for the right time. Things are tough but he has done remarkably well, exceeded almost all of my expectations for him two years ago.

    @ Colin

    The difference between the U.S. and Brazil is that Brazil was not saddled with 8 years of Dubya’s disastrous economic policies and has not been saddled with two wars abroad (one of which was completely unneccessary). The U.S. economy is doing far better than it was 18 months ago.

    For reference, when Clinton left office in 2001, we were running surpluses and on our way to paying off our longterm debt. Under Dubya, the U.S. ran up massive deficits even before the much needed bailouts. As for the bank bailouts, 75% of the money has been paid back to the U.S. treasury. The auto companies that were bailed out under Obama have actually been repaying back their debts. Obama has had to spend lots of money but the spending has not been a waste.

  41. southen califonian liberal?

    when are the next round of bailouts going to start?

    ps, i know it’s not obama’s fault

  42. I’m certainly no expert on military matters, but the view of the few military people I know is that the French are actually quite capable militarily speaking. As military partners their limitation is that they won’t fight, rather than (like most other European nations) that they can’t fight.

    I don’t have any reservations about the ability of an Anglo-French force to win battles. I have severe reservations about the willingness of the French to let such a force fight any battles.

  43. @ Richard in Norway

    Polls are about to close in the State of California and the western states. Bad night. But not horrific.

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